UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga Predictions

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga Predictions
July 23, 2013
By Ryan Porzl




                                                 John Albert vs. Yaotzin Meza
Nickname:                                      Prince        |           None
Height:                                             5'8          |             5'9
MMA Record (UFC):                       7-4 (1-3)    |        19-8 (0-1)
Age:                                                 26           |             32
Arm Length:                                    71 in.       |         Unknown
Team:                                      Victory Athletics |         MMA Lab
Weight Class:                               Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Albert is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Scott Jorgensen by submission at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz (December 8, 2012). Meza is coming off a loss to Chad Mendes by TKO at UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs. Pearson (December 15, 2012)

Predictions: Meza. The problem with Albert is the blue print to beating him is accessible to anyone who has watched his fights or looked up his record. The guy is a submission magnet as all of his losses are due to submission. Meza is no Ivan Menjivar or Scott Jorgensen but he should still be able to pull it off.

                                                 Aaron Riley vs. Justin Salas
Nickname:                                         None     |       J-Bomb
Height:                                               5'8        |           5'8
MMA Record (UFC):                30-13-1 (3-5) |      10-4 (1-1)
Age:                                                   32         |            31
Arm Length:                                      69 in.    |        Unknown
Team:                                        Jackson's MMA | Grudge Training Center
Weight Class:                                   Lightweight (155 pound)

Notes:

Preview: Riley is coming off a loss to Tony Ferguson by TKO at UFC 135 (September 24, 2011). Salas is coming off a loss to Tim Means by TKO at UFC on FX: Johnson vs. McCall (June 8, 2012).

Predictions: Salas. Riley is coming off a near two year absence which is a lot of rust. Worse of all, Riley's last two losses were doctor stoppages. One was because of cuts. The second and his recent fight, was because he suffered a broken jaw. Add to all of that, Riley has been competing for sixteen years and over forty fights.

                                              Julie Kedzie vs. Germaine de Randamie
Nickname:                                   Fireball     |         The Iron Lady
Height:                                            5'5        |                5'11
MMA Record (UFC):                16-11 (0-0) |              3-2 (0-0)
Age:                                                 32         |                 29
Arm Length:                                  64 in.      |               72.5 in.
Team:                                    Jackson's MMA | American Kickboxing Academy
Weight Class:                                Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Kedzie and de Randamie's UFC debut

Preview: Kedzie is riding a two fight losing streak. Her recent loss was to Miesha Tate by submission at Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman (August 18, 2012). de Randamie is coming off a win over Hiroko Yamanaka by unanimous decision at Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman (August 18, 2012)

Predictions: de Randamie. Both seem to perfer striking and if this fight stays standing then de Randamie should win. de Randamie is a former undefeated kickboxing champion and should be the better striker. de Randamie has also been training at American Kickboxing Academy so she should have great wrestlers to help her work on her ground game. Finally de Randamie has a big reach advantage and is much taller which will be difficult for Kedzie to get close and get her shots in.

                                                       Ed Herman vs. Trevor Smith
Nickname:                                         Short Fuse |     Hot Sauce
Height:                                                     6'2       |         6'2
MMA Record (UFC):        20-9, 1NC (7-5, 1NC) |     10-3 (0-0)
Age:                                                         32        |         32
Arm Length:                                          75 in.     |       76 in.
Team:                             Trials MMA and Fitness | Ring Demon Jiu-Jitsu
Weight Class:                                  Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Smith's UFC debut

Preview: Herman is coming off a loss to Ronaldo Souza by submission at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine (January 12, 2013). Smith is coming off a loss to Tim Kennedy by submission at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine (January 12, 2013).

Predictions: Herman. Herman is a gatekeeper and has only lost to great competition over the years like Damian Maia, Jake Shields (later overturned), and Ronaldo Souza. Smith has won most of his fights by submission but Smith doesn't have the same grappling pedigree that those previous guys have. This fight comes off as giving Herman a winnable fight as a thank you for him helping them out and fighting Jacare in Strikeforce back in January.

                                                 Yves Edwards vs. Daron Cruickshank
Nickname:                                Thugjitsu Master |   The Detroit Superstar
Height:                                              5'9              |            5'8
MMA Record (UFC):                  42-13-1 (10-7)  |        12-3 (2-1)
Age:                                                   36               |            28
Arm Length:                                     73 in.           |          72 in.
Team:                                   American Top Team |       DC Prodigies
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Cruickshank is replacing Spencer Fisher

Preview: Edwards is coming off a loss to Issac Vallie-Flagg by split decision at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013). Cruickshank is coming off a loss to John Makdessi by unanimous decision at UFC 158 (March 16, 2013).

Predictions: Edwards. Edwards is the more well-rounded fighter having an equal amount of knockout and submission wins. Cruickshank is talented but he showed against John Makdessi he still has a lot to learn. He made the mistake of telegraphing moves and if he does that with Edwards then Edwards will take advantage. Edwards has been around long enough to take advantage of his opponents mistakes.

                                                      Mac Danzig vs. Melvin Guillard
Nickname:                                           None        |  The Young Assassin
Height:                                                 5'8           |           5'9
MMA Record (UFC):                     21-10-1 (5-6) |   30-12-2, 1NC (12-8)
Age:                                                     33            |           30
Arm Length:                                      70 in.         |         71 in.
Team:                                                  PKG          | Grudge Training Center
Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Danzig is coming off a loss to Takanori Gomi by split decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Franklin vs. Le (November 10, 2012). Guillard is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Jamie Varner by split decision at UFC 155 (December 29, 2012).

Predictions: Danzig. Both are good fighters but Danzig may be more well-rounded. Both got good boxing but Danzig probably has the better ground game which is a weakness for Guillard. Although he hasn't won a fight by submission in years, Danzig has still won most of his fights by submission. Meanwhile, Guillard has lost most of his fights by submission. Danzig is also just coming off a close fight with Takanori Gomi. Despite losing by decision, Danzig proves he can hang with power punchers which Gomi and Guillard are. Guillard has also had problems over the last few months. He had some legal issues and gym issues. He left the Blackzilians and tried to go back to Jackson's but most of the fighters didn't want him so now he's at Grudge Training Center.

                                                        Danny Castillo vs. Tim Means
Nickname:                                           Last Call         |  The Dirty Bird
Height:                                                     5'9             |          6'2
MMA Record (UFC):                         15-5 (5-2)        |   18-4-1 (2-1)
Age:                                                         33              |          29
Arm Length:                                          71 in.           |         75 in.
Team:                                             Team Alpha Male |    Power MMA
Weight Class:                                        Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Means is replacing Bobby Green.

Preview: Castillo is coming off a win over Paul Sass by unanimous decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald (February 16, 2013). Means is coming off a loss to Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2012).

Predictions: Castillo. Means showed in his last fight that he was prone to getting taken down. If his takedown defense hasn't improved than this will be Castillo's fight. Castillo has a brown belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu and a wrestling background where he was an All American. Castillo has won five fights by (T)KO in his career so he also has some punching power.

                                                         Michael Chiesa vs. Jorge Masvidal
Nickname:                                              Maverick        |     Gamebred
Height:                                                        6'1            |         5'10
MMA Record (UFC):                               9-0 (2-0)       |      24-7 (1-0)
Age:                                                              25            |          28
Arm Length:                                               76 in.         |         73 in.
Team:                                                 Team Alpha Male | American Top Team
Weight Class:                                               Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Masvidal is replacing Reza Madadi

Preview: Chiesa is undefeated and riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over Anton Kuivanen by submission at UFC 157 (February 24, 2013). Masvidal is riding a two fight win streak. His recent was over Tim Means by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).

Predictions: Masvidal. Chiesa is a good up and comer but Masvidal will probably be too much. Masvidal is the more well-rounded of the two with good striking and takedown defense. If Chiesa can't get this fight to the ground then Masvidal will have the advantage. Masvidal has faced talented grapplers in the past and defeated them like Satoru Kitaoka. Masvidal is a replacement but was announced in May so that should be enough time for him to get a good training camp.

                                                        Liz Carmouche vs. Jessica Andrade
Nickname:                                               Girl-Rilla       |       Bate Estaca
Height:                                                        5'6            |            5'3
MMA Record (UFC):                              8-3 (0-1)       |        9-2 (0-0)
Age:                                                             29            |            21
Arm Length:                                            Unknown      |         Unknown
Team:                                  Team Hurricane Awesome |   Parana Vale Tudo
Weight Class:                                            Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Andrade is replacing Miesha Tate. Andrade's UFC debut.

Preview: Carmouche is coming off a loss to Ronda Rousey by submission at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013). Andrade is riding a two fight win streak. Her recent win was over Milana Dudieva by submission at ProFC 47 –Russia vs. Europe (April 14, 2013).

Predictions: Carmouche. Andrade isn't a bad fighter but Carmouche is a talented fighter. She held her own against Ronda Rousey and even put the champion in danger. So far only the best have defeated Carmouche including Rousey, Sarah Kaufman, and Marloes Coenen. Andrade is a good fighter but she's not them.

                                                 Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker
Nickname:                                     Ruthless         |       Vicious
Height:                                               5'11            |         6'0
MMA Record (UFC):                 20-9, 1NC (5-3)  |     24-9 (0-1)
Age:                                                    31              |         34
Arm Length:                                   Unknown        |        74 in.
Team:                                     American Top Team |  American Jiujitsu
Weight Class:                                  Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Voelker is replacing Tarec Saffiedine.

Preview: Lawler is coming off a win over Josh Koscheck by TKO at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013). Voelker is coming off a loss to Patrick Cote by unanimous decision (March 16, 2013).

Predictions: Lawler. Lawler has been in a slump for several years but most of the people that beat him were great grapplers like Jake Shields, Babalu Sobral, Jacare Souza, and Tim Kennedy. Voelker doesn't have the same grappling skills that those guys have. Voelker is a heavy hitter but Lawler is too and has defeated guys with knockout power. Three years ago, Lawler knocked out Melvin Manhoef. Lawler will also be more ready since he's been preparing for arguably tougher guys like Tarec Saffiedine and Siyar Bahaduraza. Voelker only took the fight on two and a half weeks notice.

                                                   Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger
Nickname:                                        Ares                 |     The Juggernaut
Height:                                              5'11                 |           5'11
MMA Record (UFC):                    14-1 (5-1)            |        29-6 (8-2)
Age:                                                    24                   |            28
Arm Length:                                   76.5 in.               |          73 in.
Team:                                           Tristar Gym           |       Reign MMA
Weight Class:                                       Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: MacDonald is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over BJ Penn by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz (December 8, 2012). Ellenberger is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Nate Marquardt by KO at UFC 158 (March 16, 2013).

Predictions: Ellenberger. MacDonald is impressive as a fighter but Ellenberger is well-rounded. He can strike, has knockout power, purple belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, and NCAA wrestling. Looking at MacDonald's recent wins, they had weaknesses that Ellenberger doesn't have. Ellenberger is not a small, pudgy welterweight like Nate Diaz and BJ Penn, he's not a one dimensional grappler like Mike Pyle, and he's not a one dimensional striker like Che Mills. Ellenberger has looked more impressive in the last two years as he destroyed Jake Shields, beat Diego Sanchez, and smashed Nate Marquardt. While he gassed out in the third round against Sanchez, it might not happen again as MacDonald isn't as wild as Sanchez is.

                                                        Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga
Nickname:                                                Mighty Mouse       |        None
Height:                                                               5'3               |         5'6
MMA Record (UFC):                                17-2-1 (5-2-1)      |     13-1 (2-0)
Age:                                                                    26               |          29
Arm Length:                                                     66 in.            |         67 in.
Team:                                                       AMC Pankration    |       MMA Lab
Weight Class:                                                    Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Flyweight Championship

Preview: Johnson is riding a four fight unbeaten streak (3 wins, 1 draw). His recent win was over John Dodson by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013). Moraga is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Chris Cariaso by submission at UFC 155 (December 29, 2012).

Predictions: Johnson. Moraga is a talented wrestler and submission grappler but he has one problem. How do you wrestle and submit someone if you can't catch them? Johnson is one of, if not, the fastest fighter on the UFC roster. Not only that but he knows how to use his speed effectively. He's shown that he can use his speed to get some offense in and get out before his opponent can land one punch. Johnson is also a very good wrestler and knows how to use his speed to get takedowns before his opponent knows it's coming.