Wednesday, June 12, 2013

UFC 161 Predictions




UFC 161 Predictions
June 12, 2013
By Ryan Porzl

Yves Jabouin vs. Dustin Pague
Nickname:                                             Tiger          |     The Disciple
Height:                                                    5'6            |           5'9
Age:                                                         34            |            25
MMA Record (UFC Record):           18-8 (3-2)    |       11-7 (1-3)
Arm Length:                                           66 in.        |          74.5 in.
Team:                                                 Tristar Gym   |     Disciple MMA
Weight Class:                                        Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Jabouin is coming off a loss to Brad Pickett by KO at UFC on Fuel TV: Struve vs. Miocic (September 29, 2012). Pague is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Chico Camus by Unanimous Decision at UFC 150 (August 11, 2012).

Predictions: Jabouin. Jabouin trains at one of the best and elite gyms in the world: Tristar Gym which means he probably has better coaches and sparring partners. Both men have lost a lot of their fights by knock out but Jabouin has won most of his fights by T/KO (though he hasn't knocked out anyone in years). Meanwhile, Jabouin's recent knockout losses are to guys like Mark Hominick in 2010 and recently Brad Pickett. Pague doesn't have the power that those two possess so it's unlikely he'll be able to do what those two did.

Mitch Clarke vs. John McGuire
Nickname:                                      Danger Zone    |        The One
Height:                                                  5'10           |            5'9
Age:                                                        27            |             30
MMA Record (UFC Record):          9-2 (0-2)      |        18-5 (2-2)
Arm Length:                                      Unknown       |            70 in.
Team:                                           Hayabusa MMA |      Tsunami MMA
Weight Class:                                    Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Potential loser gets cut fight

Preview: Clarke is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Anton Kuivanen by Split Decision at UFC 149 (July 21, 2012). McGuire is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Matt Riddle by Unanimous Decision at UFC 154 (November 17, 2012).

Predictions: McGuire.

Roland Delorme vs. Edwin Figueroa
Nickname:                                        Stunning           |       El Furoz
Height:                                                  5'9               |          5'7
Age:                                                       29               |           28
MMA Record (UFC Record):  8-1, 1NC (2-0, 1NC) |  9-2 (2-2)
Arm Length:                                    Unknown           |        69 in.
Team:                                         Winnipeg Academy  |     Mohler MMA
Weight Class:                                     Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Delorme is riding a three fight unbeaten streak (two wins, one no contest). His recent fight was a no contest with Francisco Rivera at UFC 149 (July 21, 2012). Figueroa is coming off a loss to Francisco Rivera by TKO at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013).

Predictions: Figueroa. Both have been knocked out in recent fights (Delorme's KO loss was changed to a no contest due to a positive drug test). Since both have suffered knockouts and neither have been submitted, the edge should go Figueroa. He's more comfortable standing up and has won the majority of his fights by Knockout. Delorme has won most of his fights by submission but Figueroa has never been submitted. Anything can happen especially in MMA but a Figueroa knockout seems more likely than a Delorme submission.

Sean Pierson vs. Kenny Robertson
Nickname:                                    The Punisher   |           None
Height:                                                 6'0           |           5'10
Age:                                                      37           |             29
MMA Record (UFC Record):       13-6 (3-2)    |       12-2 (1-2)
Arm Length:                                        76 in.       |            None
Team:                                                Tap Star      |  Central Illinois Combat Club
Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Pierson is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Lance Benoist by Unanimous Decision at UFC 152 (September 22, 2012). Robertson is coming off a win over Brock Jardine by submission at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013).

Predictions: Robertson. Robertson is younger and probably more well-rounded. Both have won the majority of their fights by T/KO but Robertson has won by KO more recent than Pierson (Robertson got a KO in October 2011 while Pierson got one in October 2010). Robertson has an NCAA background and has shown skills on the ground including a recent submission of the night against Brock Larson.

Sam Stout vs. James Krause
Nickname:                                   Hands of Stone | The James Krause
Height:                                                    5'9         |           6'2
Age:                                                         29         |            27
MMA Record (UFC Record):      20-8-1 (8-7)   |      19-4 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                           70 in.      |           75 in.
Team:                                           Team Tompkins | Grindhouse MMA
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: James Krause's debut fight in the UFC.

Preview: Stout is coming off a win over Caros Fodor by Split Decision at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013). Krause is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Toby Imada by Unanimous Decision at Resurrection Fighting Alliance 6 (January 18, 2013).

Predictions: Krause. Stout has won an equal amount of wins by knockout and decision but Krause has never been knocked out in his career to date. Krause is also bigger and has a longer reach which could possibly frustrate Stout. It's also well known that Stout along with other members of Team Tompkins have struggled badly since the death of head trainer: Shawn Tompkins. Since Tompkins' death in August 2011, Stout has gone 2-2 with his recent win being a very close split decision.

Jake Shields vs. Tyron Woodley
Nickname:                                           None         |        T-Wood
Height:                                                  6'0            |            5'9
Age:                                                       34            |             31
MMA Record (UFC Record): 27-6-1, 1NC (2-2, 1NC) | 11-1 (1-0)
Arm Length:                                         72 in.         |          73 in.
Team:                               Cesar Gracie Fight Team | American Top Team
Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Shields is unbeaten in his last two fights (1 win, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a no contest against Ed Herman at UFC 150 (August 11, 2012). Woodley is coming off a win over Jay Hieron by KO at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013).

Predictions: Woodley. Shields is a one dimentional grappler with no striking skills. Woodley is a decorated wrestler that should have the ability to neutralize Shields' ground offense and takedowns. Should the fight be fought standing up then Shields has no chance. Woodley has shown to have good knockout power and could knock Shields out. Not to mention, Shields has been atrocious at Welterweight. At one point, he was very successful but at his age, it's clear he's too old to be cutting that much weight. Everytime he's fought at Welterweight in the UFC, he's looked like he's bled himself dry to make weight.

Pat Barry vs. Shawn Jordan
Nickname:                               HD (Hype or Die)  |    The Savage
Height:                                                    5'11        |          6'0
Age:                                                          33         |           28
MMA Record (UFC Record):          8-5 (5-5)     |      14-4 (2-1)
Arm Length:                                           74.5 in.    |         75 in.
Team:                                               The Academy | Jackson's MMA
Weight Class:                                      Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Barry is coming off a win over Shane Del Rosario by KO at The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale (December 15, 2012). Jordan is coming off a win over Mike Russow by TKO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013).

Predictions: Barry. Given that both men prefer striking and Barry is the better striker. Before getting into MMA, Barry was a Kickboxing, Sanshou, and Wushu champion. Barry is perhaps one of the most decorated strikers in the heavyweight division. In the past, Jordan has not done well against strikers. He got knocked out in less than a minute to Kenny Garner early on in both mens careers and dropped decisions to Devin Cole and Cheick Kongo (though Kongo spent most of the fight clinching). In fact the only striker he's beaten in recent times was Lavar Johnson and that was by exposing Johnson's lousy ground game and submitted him. Barry's been working on his ground skills at the Academy and likely has improved on the ground which could prevent Jordan from submitting him.

Alexis Davis vs. Rosi Sexton
Nickname:                                          Ally-Gator     |    The Surgeon
Height:                                                     5'5            |          5'4
Age:                                                          28            |           35
MMA Record (UFC Record):            13-5 (0-0)     |     13-2 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                          Unknown     |      Unknown
Team:                                  Cesar Gracie Fight Team | Generation MMA
Weight Class:                              Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Both Alexis Davis and Rosi Sexton's debut fights in the UFC.

Preview: Davis is riding a two fight win streak. Her recent win was over Shayna Baszler by technical submission at Invicta FC 4: Esparza vs. Hyatt (January 5, 2013). Sexton is riding a three fight win streak. Her recent win was over Aisling Daly at Cage Warriors Fighting Championship 47 (June 2, 2012).

Predictions: Davis. Sexton hasn't had a fight since June 2nd of last year while Davis has had two fights since then (one in July and one in January). Davis is also more used to competing in Bantamweight while Sexton has fought most of her career at Flyweight so there's a possiblity that Davis might out muscle Sexton.

Ryan Jimmo vs. Igor Pokrajac
Nickname:                                            Big Deal      |     The Duke
Height:                                                     6'1           |         6'0
Age:                                                           31           |         33
MMA Record (UFC Record):            17-2 (1-1)    |   25-9, 1NC, (4-4, 1NC)
Arm Length:                                          Unknown     |        74 in.
Team:                                                  Blackzilians     | Croatian Top Team
Weight Class:                                     Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Jimmo is coming off a loss to James Te-Huna by Unanimous Decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald (February 16, 2013). Pokrajac is coming off a no contest to Joey Beltran at UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs. Pearson (December 15, 2012).

Predictions: Jimmo. Jimmo is probably more well-rounded than Pokrajac which gives him more tools to use. Jimmo has shown to have knockout power by knocking Anthony Perosh out in 7 seconds and nearly knocking James Te-Huna out with a head kick. Pokrajac has not looked impressive in the UFC as he's lost to several gatekeepers in the past including Vladimir Matyushenko, James Te-Huna, Stephan Bonnar, Vinny Magalhaes, and Joey Beltran (the latter was overturned due to a failed drug test), Jimmo porbably has a better ground game as many Europeans have struggled on the ground.

Roy Nelson vs. Stipe Miocic
Nickname:                                         Big Country   |        None
Height:                                                    6'0            |         6'4
Age:                                                         36            |          30
MMA Record (UFC Record):           19-7 (6-3)    |      9-1 (3-1)
Arm Length:                                           73 in.         |        80 in.
Team:                                                  Country Club | Strong Style Fight Team
Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: Nelson is replacing Soa Palelei

Preview: Nelson is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Cheick Kongo by KO at UFC 159 (April 27, 2013). Miocic is coming off a loss to Stefan Struve by TKO at UFC on Fuel TV: Struve vs. Miocic (September 29, 2012).

Predictions: Nelson. Miocic is facing an uphill fight here as he's coming off his first loss (by knockout no less) and it's not known how he'll be mentally. Other than Miocic jabbing with his longer reach and point fighting, I can't see how he'll beat Nelson. Nelson's got excellent KO power, great jiu-jitsu, and one of the best chins in MMA. If Miocic got knocked out by Stefan Struve then Nelson will have no problem knocking him out. Along with Struve knocking him out, Miocic got rocked by Shane Del Rosario and only won after getting the fight to the ground with his wrestling. The problem is Nelson has an excellent ground game and Miocic will likely be unable to get the fight to the ground if he gets rocked.

Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson
Nickname:                                             Suga         |           Hendo
Height:                                                   5'11          |             6'1
Age:                                                         33           |              42
MMA Record (UFC Record):    17-3-1 (12-3-1) |         29-9 (6-3)
Arm Length:                                           75 in.        |             71 in.
Team:                                                Blackzilians     |        Team Quest
Weight Class:                                   Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Evans is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by Unanimous Decision at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013). Henderson is coming off a loss to Lyoto Machida by Split Decision at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013).


Predictions: Henderson. At 42 years old and just having lost a title shot due to injury, Henderson knows he's doesn't have many opportunities left. If he wants a title shot, he needs to make it happen now. Because of that, Henderson will likely come into this more motivated, focused, and determined. Evans has also been accused for a long time for no longer having the same passion or motivation that he once had. Not to mention Evans doesn't seem to have an ace up his sleeve to use on Henderson. Henderson is an Olympic level wrestler so Evans won't be able to outwrestle him like he did with Rampage. Though fast, he doesn't have the same speed and elusiveness that Machida possesses. Not to mention, Machida may have beaten Henderson but by a very controversial decision. Evans has knock out power but Henderson has more in his right hand and while Evans has been knocked out in the past, Henderson has not. Finally, Evans hasn't been the same fighter since leaving Jackson's MMA and joining the Blackzilians in 2011.

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