UFC 164 Predictions

UFC 164 Predictions

August 27, 2013

By Ryan Porzl

Jared Hamman vs. Magnus Cedenblad

Nickname:                                 The Messenger   |            Jycken

Height:                                              6'3              |                6'3

MMA Record (UFC):                  13-5 (2-4)       |          10-4 (0-1)

Age:                                                   31               |                31

Arm Length:                                     75 in.           |           Unknown

Team:                                           Dynamix MMA | Allstars Training Center

Weight Class:                                    Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Hamman is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Michael Kuiper by TKO at UFC 150 (August 11, 2012). Cedenblad is coming off a loss to Francis Carmont by submission at UFC on Fuel TV: Gustafsson vs. Silva (April 14, 2012)

Predictions: Cedenblad. Cedenblad is coming off a seventeen month layoff but Hamman is coming off a year layoff of his own. Cedenblad has also lost most of his fights by submission but Hamman isn't known for submissions as he's only won twice by submission (the last time was 2007). On the other hand, both men have one most of their fights by (T)KO. While Cedenblad has lost once by knockout (his first fight in 2007), Hamman has lost most of his fights by (T)KO including his last two fights.

Ryan Couture vs. Al Iaquinta

Nickname:                                              None          |        None

Height:                                                     5'10           |         5'9

MMA Record (UFC):                          6-2 (0-1)      |      5-2 (0-1)

Age:                                                          31             |          26

Arm Length:                                            76 in.         |      Unknown

Team:                                               Xtreme Couture | Serra-Longo Fight Team

Weight Class:                                          Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Iaquinta is replacing Quinn Mulhern.

Preview: Couture is coming off a loss to Ross Pearson by TKO at UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs. Latifi (April 6, 2013). Iaquinta is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Michael Chiesa by submission at the Ultimate Fighter 15 Finale (June 1, 2012).

Predictions: Couture. This seems like favorable fight for Couture. Couture is a good wrestler who has a few submission wins (although they were a from a few years ago). Meanwhile, Iaquinta is a replacement fighter, hasn't had a fight in a year and a half, and lost his last two fights due to submission.

Soa Palelei vs. Nikita Krylov

Nickname:                                         The Hulk     |    The Al Capone

Height:                                                  6'4           |            6'3

MMA Record (UFC):                       18-3 (0-1)  |       15-1 (0-0)

Age:                                                      36            |             21

Arm Length:                                       Unknown    |       Unknown

Team:                                              HULK MMA |   YK Promotion

Weight Class:                                      Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: Palelei's first fight in the UFC since UFC 79 (December 29, 2007). Krylov's UFC debut.

Preview: Palelei is riding an eight fight win streak. His recent win was over Sean McCorkle by TKO at Australian Fighting Championship 4 (December 7, 2012). Krylov is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Gabriel Tampu by TKO at M-1 Challenge 38 – Spring Battle (April 9, 2013).

Predictions: Krylov. Call it a gut feeling but I personally believe that Krylov will win. Palelei has talent and is training at American Top Team but Krylov looks like he can be a beast. He's trained in Kyokushin Karate since childhood, he has a very good ground game as he's won ten fights by submission, and won his last three fights by (T)KO in the first round.

Chico Camus vs. Kang Kyung-Ho

Nickname:                                         King           |         Typhoon

Height:                                                5'6            |             5'9

MMA Record (UFC):                     12-4 (1-1)    |  11-6, 1NC (0-0, 1NC)

Age:                                                    28              |             25

Arm Length:                                      66 in.          |         Unknown

Team:                                              Roufusport     |  Busan Team M.A.D.

Weight Class:                                       Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Camus is coming off a loss to Dustin Kimura by submission at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013). Kang is riding a four fight unbeaten streak. His recent fight was a no contest with Alex Caceres at UFC on Fuel: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013).

Predictions: Kang. Kang's a pretty big bantamweight and a pretty good grappler. It wouldn't be surprising if Kang can take him down and either submit Camus or smother & grind him for three rounds. Kang has a good chin too as he only got knocked out early in his career and that was by soccer kicks which aren't allowed in North American MMA.

Pascal Krause vs. Lim Hyun-Gyu

Nickname:                                         Panzer           |        The Ace

Height:                                                 6'1              |            6'2

MMA Record (UFC):                     11-1 (2-1)       |      11-3-1 (1-0)

Age:                                                      26               |            28

Arm Length:                                     Unknown        |           79 in.

Team:                                                Roufusport      |   Korean Top Team

Weight Class:                                       Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Krause is coming off a win over Mike Stumpf by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013). Lim is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Marcelo Guimaraes by KO at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013)

Predictions: Lim. Lim is a huge welterweight with long arms and knockout power. He also holds a recent submission not too long ago so he's not helpless on the ground. Krause has also suffered from injuries in recent years and has had to pull out of a few fights.

Louis Gaudinot vs. Tim Elliott

Nickname:                                          Goodnight         |       None

Height:                                                    5'3                |         5'7

MMA Record (UFC):                          6-2 (1-1)         |   9-3-1 (1-1)

Age:                                                         28                 |         26

Arm Length:                                          63 in.              |     Unknown

Team:                                        Team Tiger Schulmann | Grindhouse MMA

Weight Class:                                           Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Gaudinot is coming off a win over John Linker by submission at UFC on FOX: Diaz vs. Miller (May 5, 2012). Elliott is coming off a win over Jared Papazian by unanimous decision at the Ultimate Fighter 16 finale (December 15, 2012).

Predictions: Elliott. Elliott seems more well-rounded. He's a former state wrestling champion, he has submission skills, and knockout power. Gaudinot is also coming off a fifteen month layoff. Size issues may be another factor as Gaudinot didn't have an answer to Johnny Bedford's size and was TKOed. Elliott is a huge flyweight and the size may be once again too much for Gaudinot.

Jamie Varner vs. Gleison Tibau

Nickname:                                           None           |            None

Height:                                                  5'8              |             5'10

MMA Record (UFC):              21-7-1, 2NC (3-2) |       27-9 (11-7)

Age:                                                        28             |              30

Arm Length:                                         72 in.           |            71 in.

Team:                                  Arizona Combat Sports | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Varner is coming off a win over Melvin Guillard by split decision at UFC 155 (December 29, 2012). Tibau is coming off a win over John Cholish by submission at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013).

Predictions: Tibau. Tibau is a very good grappler and if this fight goes to the ground then Tibau should have the advantage. Varner has lost most of his fights by submission including one last year against Joe Lauzon. Tibau also has a very good chin as he hasn't been knocked out since 2006.

Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier

Nickname:                                         New Breed |     The Diamond

Height:                                                    5'9         |             5'9

MMA Record (UFC):                        13-2 (2-1) |       13-3 (5-2)

Age:                                                         24          |             24

Arm Length:                                           70 in.      |            73 in.

Team:                                                   Roufusport | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                        Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Koch is coming off a loss to Ricardo Lamas by TKO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2012). Poirier is coming off a loss to Cub Swanson by unanimous decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald (February 16, 2013)

Predictions: Poirier. Poirier has the better ground skills. Though Koch has won more fights by submission, he hasn't won a fight by submission in three years while Poirier has won two fights by submission in less than two years. While Poirier has lost by submission and Koch hasn't, Koch is not the same caliber of fighter that the Korean Zombie is. If it stands up, Poirier will likely have the advantage. He's won more fights by knockout, he's never been knocked out, Koch is coming off a TKO loss, and Poirier's arms are three inches longer. On an interesting note, Poirier is the only fighter Cub Swanson failed to knockout during his current five fight win streak.

Ben Rothwell vs. Brandon Vera

Nickname:                                         Big Ben         |        The Truth

Height:                                                  6'4             |            6'3

MMA Record (UFC):                     32-9 (2-3)       | 12-6, 1NC (8-6, 1NC)

Age:                                                       31              |            35

Arm Length:                                         80 in.           |          77 in.

Team:                                             Rothwell MMA |    Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                       Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: Vera's first fight at heavyweight since UFC 85 (June 8, 2007).

Preview: Rothwell is coming off a loss with Gabriel Gonzaga by submission at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Bisping (January 19, 2013). Vera is coming off a loss to Mauricio Rua by TKO at UFC on FOX: Shogun vs. Vera (August 4, 2012).

Predictions: Rothwell. Outside of his fight with Schaub, Rothwell hasn't looked great during his UFC run but that probably won't matter. Everyone knows the story of Vera and his disappointing run in the UFC. While Vera looked better than usual against Shogun Rua last year, that fight was a year ago. More importantly, the fight in retrospect was more of Rua declining than Vera rising since Rua didn't look good in his next two fights. The fight will likely be fought standing and if it does, then Rothwell will win. Rothwell has the better chin and can likely take more shots than Vera. Vera has had his share of brutal knockouts and facial damage including the knockout loss to Shogun Rua, getting his nose broken by Thiago Silva, and getting his face broken in three places by Jon Jones.

Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida

Nickname:                                            Money          |    The Carpenter

Height:                                                    5'6              |         5'7

MMA Record (UFC):                         14-1 (5-1)      |    30-13 (10-7)

Age:                                                         28               |         31

Arm Length:                                           66 in.           |        69 in.

Team:                                             Team Alpha Male | Jackson's MMA

Weight Class:                                         Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: This fight was originally scheduled for UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013)

Preview: Mendes is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Darren Elkins by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013). Guida is coming off a win over Hatsu Hioki by split decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013).

Predictions: Mendes. This is Mendes anyway he wants. Guida has a great chin but that's it. He's not a great striker and he doesn't have knockout power since he hasn't (T)KOed anyone in five years. At the same time, Mendes (and the rest of Team Alpha Male) have seen big improvement in his striking since training under Duane Ludwig. Guida is also a very good wrestler but so is Mendes. Mendes is a former NCAA Division I Runner up which means he's a skilled wrestler and will be very difficult for Guida to take down and grind out for three rounds. This will likely be Mendes blocking takedowns and picking Guida apart standing.

Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett

Nickname:                                             None       |    The Warmaster

Height:                                                    6'3          |         6'3

MMA Record (UFC):                        16-7 (14-7) |     32-6 (4-1)

Age:                                                        34            |         35

Arm Length:                                          79 in.         |       78 in.

Team:                                            Jackson's MMA |       CSW

Weight Class:                                    Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: Barnett's first fight in the UFC since UFC 36 (March 24, 2002)

Preview: Mir is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Daniel Cormier by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013). Barnett is coming off a win over Nandor Guelmino by submission at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine (January 12, 2013).

Predictions: Barnett. Barnett's specialty is catch wrestling. That's not a common style so it will be hard for Mir to bring anyone in for his training to mimic Barnett. Mir has been a hit or miss fighter. There have been times when he puts on clinics like his fights with Tim Sylvia, Cheick Kongo, and the first Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira fight. But then there are times when he hasn't looked his best against the likes Mirko Cro Cop, Roy Nelson, and the second Nogueira fight. Mir has shown some glaring weaknesses. He's usually struggled with wrestlers who pin him to the cage and while Barnett isn't a freestyle or greco-roman wrestler, he could still give him trouble since he is a very good grappler. Mir's also a guy who can struggle when he's not the bully and someone else is pressuring him. Sure he had a great come from behind victory against Nogueira but also looked helpless against Junior Dos Santos. Mir can also make weird mistakes as seen in his recent fight with Daniel Cormier. Despite the fact it was clear that he should try to strikes on Cormier and not grapple with him, there would times where he would start kicking at Cormier and then try to clinch for no reason which allowed Cormier to come back in the fight. If the fight stands up then it'll probably go to Barnett. Neither guy are great strikers but both can hold their own and six of Mir's seven losses have come by way of (T)KO while Barnett has only been knocked out once back in 2001.

Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis

Nickname:                                          Smooth             |       Showtime

Height:                                                   5'9                 |          5'10

MMA Record (UFC):                     19-2 (7-0)           |       16-2 (3-1)

Age:                                                         29                 |           26

Arm Length:                                          70 in.              |           72 in.

Team:                                                MMA Lab           |      Roufusport

Weight Class:                                       Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: UFC Lightweight Championship. Pettis is replacing TJ Grant.

Preview: Henderson is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Gilbert Melendez by split decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Pettis (April 20, 2013). Pettis is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Donald Cerrone by TKO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013).

Predictions: Henderson. Henderson has probably evolved more since their last fight nearly three years ago. The only times Henderson has struggled is against guys like Frankie Edgar and Gilbert Melendez but Pettis might not be on the same level as those two. Other than those two fights, Henderson is either dominating against guys like Nate Diaz or destroying guys like Jim Miller and Clay Guida. Pettis has been very hit or miss. He lost his debut fight to Guida, he barely got by Jeremy Stephens, and only started to look good in his last two fights against Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone. He's also been very injury prone as he missed most of 2012 because he got hurt and he got injured just recently which prevented him from challenging Jose Aldo at 163 a few weeks ago.