UFC on FOX: Werdum vs. Browne Predictions

                                            

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs. Browne Predictions

April 18, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Derrick Lewis vs. Jack May

Nickname:                                        The Black Beast |   The Outlaw

Height:                                                       6'3            |       6'8

Age:                                                            29             |       32

MMA Record (UFC):                 9-2, 1NC (0-0) |   7-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                             78 in.          |   Unknown

Team:                                        Sliverback Fight Club |      CSW

Weight Class:                                    Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: Both Lewis and May's UFC debuts

Preview: Lewis is unbeaten in six fights (5 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a win over Ricky Shivers by TKO at LFC 18 (March 1, 2013). May is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over Carl Seumanutafa at TPF 18 (February 6, 2014).

Predictions: May. May seems like he has some potential. He's currently undefeated and he packs one-punch knockout power. He's finished most of his opponents by knockout in three minutes or less. He also trains at CSW with Erik Paulson and Josh Barnett so he should know how to grapple. He's also 6'8 so he should be hard to throw around or control in the clinch or on the ground. While most of his fights ended in the first round, he has gone the distance once last year so he's no stranger to going all three rounds. Lewis hasn't fought in thirteen months which could affect fighters and it's probably not good since he's about to debut in the big leagues. I'm not familiar with the Silverback Fight Club so I'm not sure who's he's training with to prepare for this fight.

Mirsac Bektic vs. Chas Skelly

Nickname:                                              None          |    The Scrapper

Height:                                                     5'7             |        5'11

Age:                                                          23              |        28

MMA Record (UFC):                      7-0 (0-0)         |    11-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                            70 in.           |     73.5 in.

Team:                                          American Top Team | Team Takedown

Weight Class:                                       Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: Both Bektic and Skelly's UFC Debut.

Preview: Bektic is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over Joe Pearson at VFC 41 (December 14, 2013). Skelly is undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Jarrod Card by unanimous decision at Bellator 96 (June 19, 2013).

Predictions: Bektic. I'll admit, this prediction is probably going to be my worst. I know nothing about either fighter. I have nothing to go with as there's no stats for either fighter on UFC.com. However, Bektic looks like a solid pick. He has a lot of power as he finished his last two fights by TKO in under two minutes. According to UFC.com, he does have wrestling and conditioning. It also helps that he's training at American Top Team which should give him the tools he needs to prepare. Skelly seems like a good wrestler but mostly just a wrestler. Not sure about his striking. He's got good submissions but he may get outboxed if he can't get the fight to the ground.

Dustin Ortiz vs. Ray Borg

Nickname:                                                   None     |       None

Height:                                                           5'5       |        5'4

Age:                                                                25       |    Unknown

MMA Record (UFC):                             12-3 (1-1) |    6-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                                 66 in.     |    Unknown

Team:                                                        Roufusport |    Fit NHB

Weight Class:                                           Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Borg's UFC debut.

Preview: Ortiz is coming off a loss to John Moraga by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014). Borg is undefeated with six wins. His recent win was over Nick Urso by submission at LFC 30 (April 4, 2014).

Predictions: Ortiz. For one thing, Borg is taken this fight on two weeks notice which not a lot of time to train and cut weight. To make matters worse, this is his UFC debut and fighters on many occasions get nervous. Ortiz is also considered a top 15 flyweight which isn't the best opponent for Borg to make his debut against. Ortiz has won most of his fights by knockout which is actually impressive for a flyweight. Best of all, he trains at Roufusport. If there is a place to go to properly learn how to use your knockout power, it's Roufusport. Along with his striking, Ortiz has very good takedown defense so it's going to be challenging for Borg to get the fight to the ground. Borg is also more of a grappler as he's won most of his fights by submission so if he can't get this fight to the ground then this could be brutal for him.

Jordan Mein vs. Hernani Perpetuo

Nickname:                                      Young Gun   |            None

Height:                                                 6'0           |             6'0

Age:                                                      24           |              28

MMA Record (UFC):                    27-9 (1-1)    |     17-3, 1NC (0-0)

Arm Length:                                       73 in.         |        Unknown

Team:                     Canadian Martial Arts Centre |       Nova Uniao

Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Perpetuo's UFC debut. Perpetuo is replacing Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Preview: Mein is coming off a loss to Matt Brown by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013). Perpetuo is unbeaten in nine fights (8 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a win over Tommy Depret by unanimous decision at Shooto Brazil 42 (August 25, 2013).

Predictions: Mein. Mein is coming off a year long lay off but it may not matter. Perpetuo doesn't appear to be a bad fighter but you always have to question the quality of his opponents and has probably never been tested yet. Mein has beaten many good fighters including Joe Riggs, Josh Burkman, and Marius Zaromskis. He's only lost to three fighters in the last four years including Jason High, top three welterweight Tyron Woodley, and a resurgent Matt Brown. He's also really good defensively as he's good in defending strikes and defending takedowns. Mein has also been used to fighting in big time companies like the UFC and Strikeforce while Perpetuo is making his UFC debut. Many fighters have had nerves when they make the big jump from local promotions to the big leagues.

Caio Magalhaes vs. Luke Zachrich

Nickname:                                        Hellboy             |        None

Height:                                                6'1                  |          6'2

Age:                                                     26                  |           32

MMA Record (UFC):                  7-1 (2-1)             |     13-2 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                       73 in.              |       Unknown

Team:                                             Nova Uniao         |  Ronin Training Center

Weight Class:                                        Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Zachrich's UFC debut. Zachrich is replacing Josh Samman.

Preview: Magalhaes is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Nick Ring by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013). Zachrich is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Justin Gamble by submission AAMMA 34 (August 10, 2013).

Predictions: Magalhaes. Magalhaes seems like a good fighter and a tough one to debut against. He trains out of one of the best gyms in MMA in Nova Uniao. He has good submission defense as he's never been submitted. He has a good chin as he's never been knocked out. Zachrich has lost both of his fights by submission while Magalhaes has won a lot of his fights by submissions. He's also taking this fight on eleven days notice which might not bode well. Zachrich may be a good fighter but he's has a lot going against him.

Estevan Payan vs. Alex White

Nickname:                                           El Terrible       |    The Spartan

Height:                                                     5'10            |         6'0

Age:                                                           32             |      Unknown

MMA Record (UFC):                    14-5, 1NC (0-2) |      9-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                            73 in.           |      Unknown

Team:                                     Arizona Combat Sports | Team Destruction

Weight Class:                                      Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: White's UFC debut. White is replacing Sean Soriano and Mike Brown.

Preview: Payan is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Robbie Peralta by KO at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). White is undefeated with nine wins. His recent win was over Adam Rider at Rumble Time Promotions (January 18, 2014).

Predictions: Payan. White is another fighter taken this fight on short notice to the point where he's the third opponent booked against Payan. Not to sound like a broken record, but making your UFC debut and being a last second replacement will be challenging. White has won most of his fights by submission but Payan has good takedown defense. He also trains out of Arizona Combat Sports which features a few talented wrestlers including John Moraga and Clifford Starks.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Pat Healy

Nickname:                                            Gamebred       |      Bam Bam

Height:                                                      5'11            |          6'0

Age:                                                            29             |           30

MMA Record (UFC):                     25-8 (2-1)      | 31-17, 1NC (0-2, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                             73 in.           |         72 in.

Team:                                           American Top Team |    Sports Lab

Weight Class:                                           Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Masvidal is coming off a loss against Rustam Khabilov by unanimous decision at UFC: Fight for the Troops 3 (November 6, 2013). Healy is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Bobby Green by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez (December 14, 2013).

Predictions: Masvidal. Since his no contest with Jim Miller, Healy has really been struggling. Healy is mostly a grappler but Masvidal has very good takedown defense and may be hard to takedown. Even if the fight goes to the ground, Masvidal is not bad on the ground. Though he doesn't have won many fights by submission, he is capable of submitting talented grapplers as he is the first to defeat Ultimate Fighter winner Michael Chiesa and by submission. Healy is tough to put away but so is Masvidal. Daley couldn't put him away, Gilbert Melendez couldn't put him away, and Rustam Khabilov could put him away. Masvidal also has history in boxing and kickboxing. Despite not doing either for very long, this should make him the better striker. Finally, Healy is tough and one of his things is that he can let fighters punch themselves out but how long can he do this? He already has 40 fights under his belt and his body might fall apart sooner or later.

Thiago Alves vs. Seth Baczynski

Nickname:                                            Pitbull        |    The Polish Pisola

Height:                                                    5'9           |          6'3

Age:                                                         30           |           32

MMA Record (UFC):                     19-9 (11-6)    |     19-10 (5-3)

Arm Length:                                          70 in.         |        75 in.

Team:                                      American Top Team | Power MMA and Fitness

Weight Class:                                       Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Alves is coming off a loss to Martin Kampmann by submission at UFC on FX: Alves vs. Kampmann (March 3, 2012). Baczynski is coming off a win over Neil Magny by unanimous decision at UFC: Fight for the Troops (November 6, 2013).

Predictions: Baczynski. This one is a no-brainer. Alves is a talented fighter but one that is coming off a two year layoff. Coming off a very long layoff is difficult and it will be no different for Alves. Alves' long layoff was due to many injuries so it's unknown how his body will hold up in the fight. He has also missed weight a few times in his career so it will be interesting to see if it happens again since he hasn't cut weight in two years. Even if he does make weight, it could be a hard cut. Baczynski has a lot going for him. For one, he's a well-rounded fighter with seven wins by T/KO and ten by submission while Alves is more of a strand up fighter so Baczynski should know what Alves will go for. He is also a big welterweight at 6'3 and will have a five inch reach advantage which could frustrate Alves. Both men have lost the majority of their fights by submission which plays into Baczynski's favor since he's won most of his fights by submission (ten). Alves isn't much of a submission fighter as he's only won two fights by submission and one of those was due to punches and not by a hold.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kabib Nurmagomedov

Nickname:                                     None             |         The Eagle

Height:                                             5'9               |            5'10

Age:                                                  29               |              25

MMA Record (UFC):                20-6 (9-4)        |         21-0 (5-0)

Arm Length:                                  71 in.              |            70 in.

Team:                           Gordo-Evolve Fight Team |   Red Fury Fight Team

Weight Class:                                   Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: dos Anjos is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann 2 (August 28, 2013). Nurmagomedov is undefeated with 21 wins. His recent win was over Pat Healy by unanimous decision at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013).

Predictions: Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov is one of the most impressive prospects in the UFC today and has looked good in his UFC appearances. Going into this fight, Nurmagomedov has a lot of advantages over dos Anjos. He's has better accuracy with striking and takedowns and has better striking and takedown defense. He also has the record number of takedowns in a single fight. Nurmagomedov is also more well-rounded with an equal number of knockouts, submission, and decisions (all seven). He can knock opponents out, can submit opponents, and can go the distance

Brad Tavares vs. Yoel Romero

Nickname:                                             None          |   Solider of God

Height:                                                    6'1             |        5'10

Age:                                                         26             |          36

MMA Record (UFC):                       12-1 (7-1)      |    7-1 (3-0)

Arm Length:                                          74 in.           |       73 in.

Team:                                              Xtreme Couture |  American Top Team

Weight Class:                                          Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Tavares is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Lorenz Larkin by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January15, 2014). Romero is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Derek Brunson by TKO at UFC on FOX: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014).

Predictions: Romero. Romero seems to have the tools to win this fight. Everyone of his wins have been by way of knockout which shows he has a lot power. He's also a very decorated wrestler who has won many awards including a silver medal in the Olympics. His one loss in his career was to Rafael Cavalcante who is a light heavyweight which isn't a weight division Romero fights at anymore. He's also a really good striker as he's pretty accurate with his strikes and he's good defensively as well. Romero also seems to be very athletic since he threw a perfectly timed flying knee in his debut fight. He's also undefeated at middleweight so he seems to have found his natural weight class.

Donald Cerrone vs. Edson Barboza

Nickname:                                          Cowboy        |         Junior

Height:                                                    5'11          |          5'11

Age:                                                          31            |           28

MMA Record (UFC):                  22-6, 1NC (9-3) |      13-1 (7-1)

Arm Length:                                           73 in.         |         75 in.

Team:                                            Jackson's MMA  |    Valor MMA

Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cerrone is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Adriano Martins by KO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson (January 25, 2014). Barboza is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Danny Castillo by majority decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2013).

Predictions: Cerrone. Both are very good strikers but Cerrone could take it. Cerrone has had rough losses at times but seems like he's back to normal and has performed very well in his last two fights. For one thing, both men have only been knocked out once. However, Cerrone was knocked out by another very good striker and the #1 lightweight in the world in Anthony Pettis. Barboza was TKOed by Jamie Varner who has won most of his fights by submission. If Varner can defeat Barboza by T/KO then Cerrone can as well. Probably the thing that could be the big difference is that Cerrone is very comfortable on the ground as he has won most of his fights by submission. In many cases where opponents have the same styles, they usually fight the opposite way. When two decorated strikers fight then they usually grapple and when two decorated grapplers face each other they usually strike. Because Cerrone and Barboza are great strikers, this could like a grappling battle. Cerrone has also shown to be tough as he got rocked by Melvin Guillard only to come back and pull out victory from the jaws of defeat by knocking Guillard out.

Miesha Tate vs. Liz Carmouche

Nickname:                                         Cupcake      |        Girl-Rilla

Height:                                                   5'6           |            5'6

Age:                                                        27            |            30

MMA Record (UFC):                     13-5 (0-2)     |        9-4 (1-2)

Arm Length:                                         64.5 in.      |           66 in.

Team:                                         Team Alpha Male | Team Hurricane Awesome

Weight Class:                              Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Tate is riding a two fight losing streak. Her recent loss was to Ronda Rousey by submission at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). Carmouche is coming off a loss to Alexis Davis by unanimous decision at UFC: Fight for the Troops (November 6, 2013).

Predictions: Tate. Tate's had a tough run in the UFC but don't let her record fool you. Tate's two losses are to Cat Zingano and the #1 female fighter in Ronda Rousey. Tate is still one of the top female fighters in the world. She's an excellent wrestler who was a silver medalist in FILA and a state wrestling champion. Tate has also shown toughness and is tough to put away. While her fight with Rousey was one-sided, she became the first fighter to make it past the first round with Rousey. Carmouche isn't a bad fighter but she doesn't have anything that's excellent. She's decent or good at everything but not great in anything.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne

Nickname:                                        Vai Cavalo        |         Hapa

Height:                                                  6'4                |           6'7

Age:                                                       36                 |           31

MMA Record (UFC):                    17-5-1 (5-2)       |   16-1-1 (7-1-1)

Arm Length:                                        77 in.              |           79 in.

Team:                                     Werdum Combat Team | Jackson's MMA

Weight Class:                                      Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: UFC Heavyweight Title eliminator fight

Preview: Werdum is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by submission at UFC on FX: Nogueira vs. Werdum (June 8, 2013). Browne is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Josh Barnett by KO at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013).

Predictions: Browne. Browne has come off as a beast during his UFC career. The only time he lost was against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in a fight where he tore his hamstring. Browne hasn't shown many weaknesses as he's a good striker, has great knockout power, has excellent takedown accuracy, and has never been taken down in the UFC to date. Werdum has improved his striking but Browne will be the better striker. If Nogeuira could out strike Werdum then Browne definitely can as well. Werdum is mostly a Brazilian jiu-jitsu grappler which won't go well. Two opponents Browne had last year were excellent grapplers in Gabriel Gonzaga and Josh Barnett. Both men went to take Browne down and both were rendered unconscious with a barrage of elbows. If Werdum tries to take this fight to the ground then he'll likely meet the same fate. Finally, Werdum has not been the most active fighter over the years. He fought only once in 2010, 2011, and 2013. By the time this fight takes place, Werdum will not have fought in ten months so he may have some rust.