UFC 172 Predictions

                                  

UFC 172 Predictions

April 24, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Chris Beal vs. Patrick Williams

Nickname:                                 The Real Deal    |           None

Height:                                                 5'9           |            5'8

Age:                                                      28           |             32

MMA Record (UFC):                    8-0 (0-0)      |         7-3 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                   Unknown      |         Unknown

Team:                                Knuckleheadz Boxing |         Unknown

Weight Class:                                  Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Both Beal and Williams' UFC debuts

Preview: Beal's undefeated with eight wins. His recent win was over Keith Carson by TKO at BAMMA USA – Badbeat 12 (March 28, 2014). Williams is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Rafael Dias by TKO at Fight Time 17 (November 1, 2013).

Predictions: Williams. For one, Beal just fought a month ago which is a quick return to fighting. It wasn't a quick fight either but one that went deep into round two. Williams seems well rounded with four wins by knockout and two by submission so he is a finisher. Williams has been knocked out and submitted but that shouldn't be a problem for him since Beal isn't a finisher. Of his eight wins, only two have been by stoppage (both by knockout).

Danny Castillo vs. Charlie Brenneman

Nickname:                                    Last Call         |        The Spaniard

Height:                                               5'9             |             5'10

Age:                                                    34             |               33

MMA Record (UFC):                  16-6 (6-3)      |          19-6 (4-5)

Arm Length:                                     71 in.          |             70 in.

Team:                                      Team Alpha Male |      AMA Fight Club

Weight Class:                                    Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Castillo is coming off a loss to Edson Barboza by majority decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2013). Brenneman is coming off a loss to Beneil Dariush by submission at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014).

Predictions: Castillo. Castillo should be the better one of the two. He's a very good wrestler and former all-American. To no surprise, he has very good takedown defense. He's training at Team Alpha Male which is a great gym to train at. Brenneman is also easy to finish as he's been knocked out three times and submitted twice including his recent fight.

Jessamyn Duke vs. Bethe Correia

Nickname:                                             The Gun      |         Pitbull

Height:                                                      5'11         |           5'4

Age:                                                            27          |            30

MMA Record (UFC):                     3-0, 1NC (1-0) |      7-0 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                            73 in.         |         64 in.

Team:                                     Glendale Fighting Club | Pitbull Brothers

Weight Class:                                  Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Duke is unbeaten in four fights (3 wins, 1 no contest). Her recent fight was a win over Peggy Morgan by unanimous decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale (November 30, 2013). Correia is undefeated with seven wins. Her recent win was over Julie Kedzie by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 6, 2013).

Predictions: Duke. Duke is the least experienced but she has a lot going for her. She has a big size advantage as she's seven inches taller. She also has a huge reach advantage as well. She's also training with Ronda Rousey and her people which should help her evolve as a fighter and prepare her for this fight. She's also has good standup as she's very accurate with her striking and very good defensively. She can also go to the ground as she's won most of her amateur fights by submission. Duke shouldn't have to worry about getting finished by Correia as she is not much of a finisher.

Takanori Gomi vs. Issac Vallie-Flagg

Nickname:                                 The Fireball Kid   |           None

Height:                                                5'8              |             5'8

Age:                                                     35              |              36

MMA Record (UFC):               34-9, 1NC (3-4) |         14-4 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                       70 in.          |             70 in.

Team:                                        Kugayama Rascal |      Jackson's MMA

Weight Class:                                    Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Gomi is replacing Danny Castillo

Preview: Gomi is coming off a loss to Diego Sanchez by split decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013). Vallie-Flagg is coming off a loss to Elias Silverio by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014).

Predictions: Vallie-Flagg. It's really difficult to go with Gomi. He has the tools but doesn't always use them. He has very underrated wrestling but doesn't use it a lot. He has very good boxing but doesn't always use it and instead occasionally prefers to be a sloppy headhunter. He has talent but isn't one of the smartest fighters out there. Stats wise, Gomi has been very good in the UFC. He's very good defensively with striking & takedowns and very good takedown accuracy. Gomi also hits like a freight train that can knock out anybody. Yet, it may not matter given Gomi's long absence and not fighting smart. Gomi is also taking this fight on short notice and hasn't competed in nearly fifteen months which is a very bad combination. Vallie-Flagg will have Greg Jackson in his corner so he'll likely fight a lot smarter than Gomi will. He's also good defensively in both striking and takedowns. In the end, it won't be more about what Vallie-Flagg does but what Gomi won't do.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Tim Elliot

Nickname:                                         The Beefcake       |       None

Height:                                                     5'4                 |         5'7

Age:                                                          29                 |          27

MMA Record (UFC):                        19-4 (6-2)          |   10-4-1 (2-2)

Arm Length:                                           65 in.              |       66.5 in.

Team:                                                Team Alpha Male | Grindhouse MMA

Weight Class:                                           Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Benavidez is coming off a loss to Demetrious Johnson by KO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2013). Elliot is coming off a loss to Ali Bagautinov by unanimous decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Benavidez. Benavidez is coming off a big loss but it doesn't take anything away from him. He's still an improving striker, he has very good wrestling, and good submissions. He's got great conditioning and good speed. He's got good knockout power for a flyweight and is probably one of the heaviest hitters in the division. The worst case scenario in his career is that Benavidez is like his mentor Urijah Faber in that he crushes pretty much anyone that's not the champion. If he faces Johnson then he loses but if he faces just about anyone else in the division then he not only wins but also looks elite.

Max Halloway vs. Andre Fili

Nickname:                                            Blessed           |      Touchy

Height:                                                    5'11              |        5'11

Age:                                                          22               |         23

MMA Record (UFC):                         8-3 (4-3)         |    13-1 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                           70 in.            |      73.5 in.

Team:                                                 Gracie Technics | Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                      Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Halloway is coming off a win over Will Chope by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs. Lim (January 4, 2014). Fili is riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over Jeremy Larsen by TKO at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013).

Predictions: Fili. Fili has been considered a good prospect and he has everything going for him. Fili has a lot of knockout power especially for a featherweight, he can wrestle, and he can submit opponents. Fili also trains at Team Alpha Male which is one of the best gyms in the world so he should be ready. An interesting thing to know is the fact that outside of his recent fight with Chope, this is one of the few fights Halloway's had in a long time where he is facing a fighter as big or bigger than him and has the better reach. It will be interesting to see how Halloway will fight against a fighter who is a tall as him and has a near four inch reach advantage. Despite his recent TKO win, Halloway is not known for being a finisher as only three of his wins have been by way of T/KO while he's never won a fight by submission. Fili is a finisher with ten of his thirteen wins being stoppages. Fili has also never been submitted and while he does have a TKO loss, that was a knee injury.

Jim Miller vs. Yancy Medeiros

Nickname:                                          None        |        Frisson

Height:                                                 5'8          |          5'10

Age:                                                      30           |           26

MMA Record (UFC):  23-4, 1NC (12-3, 1NC) | 9-1, 1NC (0-1, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                       71 in.        |         77 in.

Team:                                        AMA Fight Club | Team Gracie Fighter

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Medeiros is replacing Bobby Green

Preview: Miller is unbeaten in three fights (2 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a win over Fabricio Camoes by submission at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). Medeiros is winless in two fights (1 loss, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a no contest with Yves Edwards at UFC Fight For The Troops 3 (November 6, 2013).

Predictions: Miller. Nothing against Joe Ellenberger but going from him to Miller is a big step up in competition and Medeiros is only giving a weeks notice. Miller is one of the best lightweights in the UFC. He's a good wrestler, he is great with submissions, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He's also proven he can strike as he showed in his fight with Joe Lauzon fight where he left Lauzon a bloody mess. Mediros is also a striker who wins most of his fights by knockout but Miller has never been knocked out in his career.

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Boetsch

Nickname:                                          None               |    The Barbarian

Height:                                                  6'3                |          6'0

Age:                                                       29                 |          33

MMA Record (UFC):                     11-2 (1-1)          |     17-6 (8-5)

Arm Length:                                        77 in.              |        74 in.

Team:                        American Kickboxing Academy |   AMC Pankration

Weight Class:                                     Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Rockhold is coming off a win over Costas Philippou by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014). Boetsch is coming off a win over CB Dollaway by split decision at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013).

Predictions: Rockhold. Rockhold is one of the elite middleweights in MMA today. He's a good striker, has knockout power, can wrestle, and is a great grappler. Rockhold is also a very big middleweight and will have a good size and reach advantage. Rockhold also showed in a lot of his recent fights how skilled he is. He took on Costas Philippou who is a former boxer and beat him by TKO in less than three minutes. He took on great grapplers like Tim Kennedy and Ronaldo Souza and neither could frequently take him down or control him on the ground. Boetsch is a fighter whose fifteen minutes of fame has been up for a while. He's mostly a gatekeeper and the only time he's defeated name fighters were usually by flukes. He was dominated by Yushin Okami until catching Okami in the third round with a punch out of nowhere which allowed him to finish Okami off. He also barely got by Hector Lombard and some would argue that he shouldn't have won that fight. Boetsch is also a fighter that's doesn't look impressive when put up against a fighter who has a skill they're very good to great at. He fought Costas Phillipou who has very good boxing and was eventually TKOed. He fought Mark Munoz and despite Munoz coming off a year long layoff, he still had no answer for Munoz's wrestling, was taken down, dominated, and lost. Unless he gets another Hail Mary then Boetsch is not knocking out Rockhold and he has little to no chance of outgrappling him.

Phil Davis vs. Anthony Johnson

Nickname:                                 Mr. Wonderful |            Rumble

Height:                                                6'2          |               6'2

Age:                                                     29           |               30

MMA Record (UFC):  12-1, 1NC (8-1, 1NC) |          16-4 (7-4)

Arm Length:                                     79 in.         |            78 in.

Team:                                         Alliance MMA |        Blackzilians

Weight Class:                                 Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes: Johnson's return fight to the UFC since UFC 142 (January 14, 2012).

Preview: Davis is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Lyoto Machida by unanimous decision at UFC 163 (August 3, 2013). Johnson is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Mike Kyle by KO at WSOF 8 (January 18, 2014).

Predictions: Johnson. Johnson has always been a talented fighter and his problems were never about his skill but weight issues. Now he's competing in his natural weight class and has been shining ever since as he's undefeated at light heavyweight. While Davis is the better wrestler, Johnson is a very good wrestler in his own right and has great takedown defense. If Davis can't get the fight to the ground then he has little chance of winning. Johnson is also a far better striker with a lot of knockout power. Davis has attempted to improve his striking but he hasn't really made the necessary adjustments and won't be able to beat Johnson standing up. Also, Johnson has arguably fought better fighters since 2012 by beating guys like Andrei Arlovski in a heavyweight fight, Dave Branch, and Mike Kyle. Davis hasn't beat bad fighters but three wins since the loss to Rashad Evans haven't been that great. He defeated Wagner Prado who is a prospect but never won in the UFC and is already gone. His next win was against Vinny Magalhaes who is one dimensional as he can't strike, can't wrestle, has bad cardio, and an even worse chin. While he defeated Lyoto Machida, it was a controversial decision that many people thought he shouldn't have gotten.

Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira

Nickname:                                           Bones      |          None

Height:                                                  6'4          |           6'2

Age:                                                       26          |            34

MMA Record (UFC):                     19-1 (13-1) |      22-2 (5-0)

Arm Length:                                        84.5 in.     |          76 in.

Team:                                         Jackson's MMA |        The Pit

Weight Class:                                 Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Preview: Jones is riding a ten fight win streak. His recent win was over Alexander Gustafsson by unanimous decision at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Teixeira is riding a 20 fight win streak. His recent win was over Ryan Bader by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs. Bader (September 4, 2013)

Predictions: Jones. It's hard to bet against Jones. First Teixeira is giving up a lot of reach and some height. Second, Jones knows how to use his reach effectively and keep his opponents on the outside. Teixeira is an excellent grappler but fighters have had a hard time getting past his long arms and legs. Not to mention that in the few times a fighter has gotten close, Jones has been able to clinch with them and prevent them from hitting him with anything powerful that could knock him out. Jones has also never been finished in his career so it will be challenging for Teixeira to win as it will also be hard to do enough to win on a decision. Jones could also potentially finish Teixeira as Teixeira got rocked in his last fight by Ryan Bader. If Bader can rock Teixeira than Jones can too as he hits harder and is a far better striker by throwing elbows like punches and using different angles. Despite being taken down in his last fight, Jones has excellent takedown defense as he was never taken down in his first thirteen fights.