UFC 169 Predictions

UFC 169 Predictions

January 31, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Neil Magny vs. Gasan Umalatov

Nickname:                                         None         |          Cobra

Height:                                                6'3            |           5'11

Age:                                                     26            |             31

MMA Record (UFC):                     8-3 (1-2)    |        14-2-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                      81 in.         |         Unknown

Team:                             Grudge Training Center |    Fight Nights Team

Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Umalatov's UFC debut

Preview: Magny's riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Seth Baczynski by unanimous decision at UFC Fight For The Troops 3 (November 6, 2013). Umalatov is coming off a win over Gregor Herb at Fight Nights – Battle of Moscow 12 (June 20, 2013).

Predictions: Umalatov. Umalatov is a grappling champion and grappling is Magny's weakness as he's lost most of his fights by submission. Meanwhile, Umalatov has won most of his fights by submission so this can be a very good fight for Umalatov stylistically. It should also be pointed out that not only has Umalatov not been finished in his career yet but he hasn't even lost a fight by unanimous decision. His two losses are by very close split decisions so not only will Magny have a hard time putting him away but he'll have a hard time beating him decisively.

Tony Martin vs. Rashid Magomedov

Nickname:                                     None           |         Highlander

Height:                                             6'1            |               5'9

Age:                                                  24             |               29

MMA Record (UFC):                 8-0 (0-0)      |          15-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                   73 in.          |             69 in.

Team:                                           Unknown      |         Goretz MMA

Weight Class:                                    Lightweight (169 pounds)

Notes: Both Martin and Magomedov's UFC debuts.

Preview: Martin is undefeated with eight wins. His recent win was over Thomas Gifford by submission at 3RT 4 (September 14, 2013). Magomedov is riding an eight fight win streak. His recent win was over Alexander Yakovlev by unanimous decision at M-1 Challenge 35 (November 15, 2012).

Predictions: Magomedov. Magomedov looks like he has the tools to pull it off. He's got a lot of knockout power. He's also a very good striker as he's a master in sports in both boxing and hand-to-hand combat. Martin is pretty one-dimensional as he's most a grappler who has never won a fight by knockout. Magomedov is also a national master of sports in combat sambo so he should be able to hold his own. If Magomedov can keep the fight standing then the fight is his as can either win by knockout or pick Martin apart and score points. While Martin is undefeated, Magomedov has never been finished and his only loss to date is a very close split decision to Frodo Khasbulaev who is now one of the top featherweights in the world as he's a former tournament winner in Bellator.

Clint Hester vs. Andy Enz

Nickname:                                            Headbussa    |    Tank Mode

Height:                                                      6'2            |         6'2

Age:                                                           27            |          22

MMA Record (UFC):                          9-3 (2-0)      |     7-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                           76.5 in.       |     Unknown

Team:                                                     X3 Sports   |  Gracie Barra Alaska

Weight Class:                                        Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Enz's UFC Debut

Preview: Hester is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Dylan Andrews by TKO at UFC on FOX: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013). Enz is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over Mike Fannon at AFC 101 (September 13, 2013).

Predictions: Hester. Hester is a good striker with a boxing background and a 76.5 in. reach. He has good takedown defense and if he can prevent the takedowns then he'll win as Enz is one-dimensional grappler. Given his reach, Hester can play is safe and pick apart Enz from the outside as Enz isn't a striker so he shouldn't worry about Enz knocking him out.

Al Iaquinta vs. Kevin Lee

Nickname:                                              Raging       | The Mo-Town Phenom

Height:                                                      5'9          |        5'9

Age:                                                           26           |        21

MMA Record (UFC):                         7-2-1 (2-1)   |   7-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                             70 in.       |   Unknown

Team:                                 Serra-Longo Fight Team |   Unknown

Weight Class:                                        Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: Lee's UFC debut.

Preview: Iaquinta is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Piotr Hallmann by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Munoz (October 26, 2013). Lee is undefeated with seven fights. His recent win was over Eric Moon by submission at TWC 20 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Inquinta. Lee is one-dimensional as he's more of a grappler. Iaquinta has very good takedown defense and if Lee can't take him down then he can't win. Iaquinta has good ground skills and is a good striker. He also trains at a great gym in Serra-Longo Fight Team while I don't even know where Lee trains so it's hard to get an idea on the guy. Because I don't know where he's training, I don't know who his coaches or sparring partners are. Iaquinta and the Serra-Longo Fight Team have good track records and seem like a safe bet.

Nick Catone vs. Tom Watson

Nickname:                                    The Jersey Devil |         Kong

Height:                                                    6'0           |           6'1

Age:                                                         32           |            31

MMA Record (UFC):                        9-4 (3-4)     |      16-6 (1-2)

Arm Length:                                         72.5 in.      |          73 in.

Team:                       Nick Catone MMA Academy |   Jackson's MMA

Weight Class:                                    Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Catone is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to TJ Waldburger by submission at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 16 (December 16, 2012). Watson is coming off a loss to Thales Leites by unanimous decision at UFC 163 (August 3, 2013).

Predictions: Catone hasn't fought in over a year but it may not matter. Watson is a good fighter and has good trainers but for some reason, he hasn't been able to put it together in the UFC. He lost his debut fight even though it was close, he nearly got finished by Nedkov before winning, and he got grinded to a decision by Thales Leites. Watson has not been able to show his best since coming into the UFC. Catone is also the more well-rounded by winning an equal amount of fights by knockout, submission, and decision. Watson is one of those fighters that you know what they will be going for in this case the knockout.

Chris Cariaso vs. Danny Martinez

Nickname:                                       Kamikaze      |       The Gremlin

Height:                                                  5'3           |              5'6

Age:                                                       32           |               28

MMA Record (UFC):                      15-5 (5-3)   |         16-4 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                        64.5 in.     |             66 in.

Team:                                            Fight & Fitness |     Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                     Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Marinez's UFC debut.

Preview: Cariaso is coming off a win over Iliarde Santos by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields (October 9, 2013). Martinez is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Ian Dela Cuesta by unanimous decision at Coalition of Combat – Free For All (December 1, 2012)

Predictions: Martinez. Martinez is a good striker with power and good defense. His ground game is decent as he has some submission wins and good defense. He's never been finished in his MMA career to date and Cariaso is not known as a finisher which means Cariaso will likely have to win by points which is something that can be difficult for a fighter who is fighting a heavy handed opponent. Martinez hasn't fought in fourteen months but it may not matter because he did fight an exhibition fight to qualify for the Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate and while he lost, he did have some cage time. Martinez is also training out of the Alliance MMA gym which is an elite gym and will give him better sparring partners to prepare.

John Makdessi vs. Alan Patrick

Nickname:                                          The Bull          |       Nuguette

Height:                                                    5'9             |           5'11

Age:                                                         28              |           30

MMA Record (UFC):                       12-2 (5-2)       |      11-0 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                          68 in.           |       Unknown

Team:                                                 Tristar Gym    |         X-Gym

Weight Class:                                        Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Makdessi is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Renee Forte by KO at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Patrick is undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Garett Whiteley by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields (October 9, 2013).

Predictions: Makdessi. Makdessi is probably the biggest challenge to date for Patrick and one he may not be ready for. Makessi has a lot of skill as he is a black belt in Shotokan Karate and taekwondo. He also trains out of Tristar Gym which is one of the best gyms in the world. Patrick is mostly a striker but Makdessi has been fighting strikers with a lot of power in his recent fights including Daron Cruickshank and Sam Stout. He also has a good chin as he's never been knocked out and has very good takedown defense in case Patrick tries to go for a takedown either to surprise Makdessi or if he gets clipped.

Jamie Varner vs. Abel Trujillo

Nickname:                                              C-4           |         Killa

Height:                                                     5'8           |          5'8

Age:                                                          29            |          30

MMA Record (UFC):               21-8-1, 2NC (3-3) | 11-5, 1NC (2-1, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                           72 in.         |         70 in.

Team:                                   Arizona Combat Sports |    Blackzilians

Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Varner is replacing Bobby Green

Preview: Varner is coming off a loss to Gleison Tibau by split decision at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Trujillo is coming off a win over Roger Bowling by TKO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2013).

Predictions: Trujillo. Trujillo really looked good in his last fight against Roger Bowling. Like the rest of the Blackzilians, Trujillo looks like he's putting things together in the last few months. Both guys are pretty well-rounded but Trujillo has made improvements in his striking and has good accuracy in takedowns. Trujillo is also pretty consistent and has a good track record. His only loss in the last three years has been to Khabib Nurmagomedov who is one of UFC's brightest prospects.

John Linker vs. Ali Bagautinov

Nickname:                                    Hands of Stone |      Puncher King

Height:                                                   5'2           |            5'4

Age:                                                        24           |             28

MMA Record (UFC):                      23-6 (4-1)    |        12-2 (2-0)

Arm Length:                                          67 in.        |           65 in.

Team:                                              EMPORIUM |   Fight Nights Team

Weight Class:                                         Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Linker is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Phil Harris by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Munoz (October 26, 2013). Bagautinov is currently riding a ten fight win streak. His recent win was over Tim Elliot by unanimous decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Bagautinov. Bagautinov has a lot more tools to use as he's won competitions in hand-to-hand combat, combat sambo, greco-roman wrestling, and freestyle wrestling. He's more well-rounded as he's nearly even in knockout and submission while Linker is more predictable as he'll go for knockouts. Linker also has had a history of missing weight and even if he's on the right diet, there's no guarantee his cardio won't be effected. Bagauntinov is also hard to finish as he's never been knocked out or submitted in his career. It's definitely possible that with Linker's weight issues that if Bagauntinov can take him to the deep end and get him tired. The longer the fight goes, the better Bagauntinov's chances of winning get. Another good reason is the fact that Baganuntinov is an expert in hand-to-hand combat and sambo which is hard to prepare for in Brazil or the United States.

Frank Mir vs. Alistair Overeem

Nickname:                                          None      |        The Reem

Height:                                                  6'3       |             6'4

Age:                                                       34        |             33

MMA Record (UFC):                  16-8 (14-8) |    36-13, 1NC (1-2)

Arm Length:                                       79 in.      |            80 in.

Team:                                      Jackson's MMA |       Blackzilians

Weight Class:                                    Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Mir is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Josh Barnett by TKO at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Overeem is riding a two fight losing losing streak. His recent loss was to Travis Browne by KO at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).

Predictions: Overeem. Overeem's biggest weakness in 2013 was him pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. With his career on the line, Overeem will likely not take Mir lightly and will have the killer instinct. Mir is a guy who is clearly at the end of the line. Despite attempts to reinvent himself at Jackson's, it didn't work and his weakness are too glaring. He doesn't have a good chin as nearly all of his losses have come by knockout. As if that's not bad enough, Overeem has a kickboxing background being a former K-1 World Grand Prix winner and he hits very hit. All in all, it won't take much for the Reem to put the lights out on Mir. Mir also struggles with fighters who can grapple him into the fence and wear him down. Overeem is an underrated grappler and very strong so he could possibly pin Mir to the cage and work him over. Finally, Overeem doesn't have the best jaw for a heavyweight but it won't matter. Mir is not a striker and isn't known for knockout power except for his knockout of Cro Cop years ago. Overeem shouldn't have to worry too much of a knockout because Mir doesn't have the power nor the stand up skills that Antonio Silva and Travis Browne have.

Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas

Nickname:                                         Scarface    |         The Bully

Height:                                                  5'7         |             5'8

Age:                                                       27         |              31

MMA Record (UFC):                       23-1 (5-1) |       13-2 (4-0)

Arm Length:                                         70 in.     |            70 in.

Team:                                              Nova Uniao | MMA Masters and Team Top Notch

Weight Class:                                    Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Featherweight Championship

Preview: Aldo is riding a sixteen fight win streak. His recent win was over Chan Sung Jung by TKO at UFC 163 (August 3, 2013). Lamas is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Erik Koch by TKO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013).

Predictions: Aldo. Aldo is mostly a fighter that goes for the knockout and both of Lamas' losses have come by knockout. If Danny Castillo and Yuri Alcantara can knock out Lamas then Aldo can. Lamas has also never fought a fight that went five rounds. In fact, only one of Lamas' fights have ended after Round 3 and that was the second fight of his career which was nearly six years ago. If the fight goes to the championship rounds then Aldo may have the advantage. It wouldn't be the first time since that was one of the reasons why John Dodson lost to Demetrious Johnson because he wasn't used to five round fights while Johnson was. Lamas is also coming off a year layoff. While that's not the end of the world and I predicted a few guys would win despite year-long layoffs, Jose Aldo is one of the pound-for-pound best fighters in the world. He's not the fighter you want to fight after sitting out for so long. When a fighter is going to fight someone like Aldo, they need to get as close to perfection as they can get.

Renan Pegado vs. Urijah Faber

Nickname:                                            Barao           |   The California Kid

Height:                                                   5'7              |           5'6

Age:                                                        26              |            34

MMA Record (UFC):                   31-1, 1NC (6-0) |      30-6 (6-1)

Arm Length:                                          70 in.           |          69 in.

Team:                                                 Nova Uniao    |   Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                        Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Faber is replacing Dominick Cruz.

Preview: Barao is unbeaten in 32 fights (31 wins, one no contest). His recent win was over Eddie Wineland by TKO at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Faber is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Michael McDonald by submission at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2013).

Predictions: Barao. Barao has been a beast long before he got to the UFC and has been showing since his arrival. Barao has good striking, great knockout power, great chin, great submissions, and great submission defense. He's also never been knocked out and never been submitted. Barao also has great speed with his movements, striking, and even jumping onto opponents for submissions. Faber has a lot going against him. He's taken this fight on short notice as he's barely had a month's notice to prepare which is no where near enough against an opponent like Barao. Faber just fought only a month and a half ago and while he didn't take much damage, that's still may be too soon to get back in there. Worse of all is the fact that this will be Faber's fifth fight in the past 12 months (dating back to the Ivan Menjivar fight on February 23, 2013). Usually when fighters fight that much in a year it comes back to haunt them. When Mirko Cro Cop fought five times in 2005 he had cardio issues in his fights with Fedor Emelianenko, Josh Barnett, and Mark Hunt which most people believe cause he was too active. Same with Donald Cerrone as he fought five times in 2011 and while he looked great in his first four fights, he ultimately came up short in his fifth fight against Nate Diaz. That could happen with Faber as he'll be fighting five times in 12 months and hasn't given himself time off. Barao has also beaten Faber before and know how to beat him. He knows leg kicks are very useful as that's what he and his teammate Jose Aldo used to beat Faber. Finally another reason is the recent turn of events in Team Alpha Male. For most of 2013, most people (myself included) were very impressed by the supposed evolution in the group since hiring Duane Ludwig. I say “supposed evolution” because so far we really haven't seen much outside of improved striking. As far as results go, Alpha Male isn't any better than they were pre-Ludwig. If anything, it's the same. You put them against anyone not the world champion then they're world beaters. But whenever they face the champion, they can't win the big one. So far the Ludwig era hasn't been any different. They went unbeaten all year long and looked phenomenal against everyone that wasn't a champion. Then in December, they once again hit that wall. First Lance Palmer lost to Georgi Karakhanyan in a fight to determine the first WSOF Featherweight Champion when he submitted to a guillotine choke (Alpha Male's signature submission). Then one week later, Joseph Benavidez challenged Demetrious Johnson for the UFC Flyweight Title and was knocked out in 2 minutes. Sure Faber has looked impressive but he's looked impressive every other time he was climbing the mountain only to lose when he got to the top to face the champion.