UFC on
FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson Predictions
January
19, 2014
By Ryan
Porzl
Walt
Harris vs. Nikita Krylov
Nickname: The Big Ticket | Al Capone
Height: 6'4 | 6'3
Age: 30 | 21
MMA
Record (UFC): 5-2 (0-1) | 15-3 (0-1)
Arm
Length: Unknown | Unknown
Team: American Top Team | YK
Promotion
Weight
Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Harris is coming off a loss to Jared Rosholt by unanimous decision at
UFC The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale (November 30, 2013). Krylov is
coming off a loss to Soa Palelei by TKO at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013).
Predictions:
Harris. It's hard to go with Krylov after his infamous debut against
Soa Palelei. He didn't show good striking or submission and his
cardio was worse than you would expect even for a heavyweight.
Harris has good striking and knockout power with all of his wins
happening by way of TKO. Harris also has a better gym as he trains at
ATT and should have great sparring partners to improve the holes in
his game. Harris has also never been finished in his MMA career to
date while Krylov is coming off his first knockout loss. If a gassed
and tired Soa Palelei can knock out Krylov then Harris should too.
Krylov has won most of his fights by submission and while Rosholt
beat Harris with his grappling, Harris has probably been working on
that since he knows it needs work.
George
Sullivan vs. Mike Rhodes
Nickname: None | Biggie
Height: 6'0 | 6'0
Age: Unknown | Unknown
MMA
Record (UFC): 14-3 (0-0) | 6-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: Unknown | Unknown
Team: Pellegrino MMA | Roufusport
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Both Sullivan and Rhodes' UFC debuts
Preview:
Sullivan is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over
Jesus Martinez by TKO at CFFC 26 (August 17, 2013). Rhodes is riding
a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Alan Jouban at RFA
10 (October 25, 2013).
Predictions:
Rhodes. Both guys are pretty even in that they prefer to knock out
their opponents and have never been knocked out. But the difference
may be in Rhodes training in Roufusport. Duke Roufus is a former
kickboxer and learning from him should make him the better striker of
the two. Rhodes may also have a better advantage on the ground.
Rhodes has only lost once by submission while Sullivan has lost
three. Rhodes has also won one fight by submission while Sullivan has
never won a fight by submission. Meanwhile, former Olympic wrestler
Ben Askren is the wrestling coach at Roufusport and Rhodes can learn
a lot in the grappling department.
Daron
Cruickshank vs. Mike Rio
Nickname: The Detroit Superstar | The
Wolverine
Height: 5'8 | 5'10
Age: 28 | 32
MMA
Record (UFC): 13-4 (3-2) | 9-3 (1-2)
Arm
Length: 72 in. | 70 in.
Team: DC Prodigies | Zen Jiu-Jitsu
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Cruickshank is coming off a loss to Adriano Martins by submission at
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013). Rio is
riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Tony
Ferguson by submission at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013).
Predictions:
Cruickshank. Cruickshank could take this because he is the more
well-rounded. Despite never winning a fight by submission and being
mostly a knockout artist, Cruickshank has more tools. He's a better
striker with a black belt in Taekwondo, he's a good wrestler as he's
a former NCAA Division III Wrestler, and he's good with striking and
takedown defense. If Cruickshank can prevent the takedown and keep
the fight standing, he can likely win by either knockout or by
points. Rio has never been knocked out but that hasn't stopped
Cruickshank before. In his fight with Henry Martinez back at UFC on
FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz, Cruickshank became the first to knock
Martinez out so he's no stranger to given fighter's their first
knockout.
Ramiro
Hernandez vs. Hugo Viana
Nickname: Junior | Wolverine
Height: 5'9 | 5'6
Age: 27 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 13-5 (0-1) | 7-1 (2-1)
Arm
Length: Unknown | 67
in.
Team: Miletich Fighting Systems |
Champion Team
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Hernandez is coming off a loss to Lucas Martins by technical
submission at UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs. Bader (September 4,
2013). Viana is coming off a loss to TJ Dillashaw by TKO at UFC on
FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).
Predictions:
Hernandez. Viana has skill but he's not a finisher. Of his seven
wins, he's only finished one fight. Though Hernandez hasn't finished
a fight in years, nine out of his thirteen wins are way of finishes.
It's going to be hard for Viana to win with Hernandez being a
finisher and being hard to finish. Hernandez also has a three inch
reach advantage.
Chico
Camus vs. Yaotzin Meza
Nickname: King | None
Height: 5'6 | 5'9
Age: 28 | 32
MMA
Record (UFC): 13-4 (2-1) | 20-8 (1-1)
Arm
Length: 66 in. | 71
in.
Team: Roufusport | MMA Lab
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Camus is coming off a win over Kyung Ho Kang by unanimous decision at
UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Meza is coming off a win over John Albert
by submission at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013).
Predictions:
Camus. Camus is a better striker and has good wrestling. He has
better striking defense than Meza and is harder to put away. Camus
has only been knocked out once and submited once while Meza was
submitted three times and knocked out three times. Camus also has
good accuracy and will likely land more strikes.
Eddie
Wineland vs. Yves Jabouin
Nickname: None | Tiger
Height: 5'9 | 5'6
Age: 29 | 34
MMA
Record (UFC): 29-8-1 (2-3) | 19-8 (4-2)
Arm
Length: 69 in. | 66 in.
Team: New Breed Academy | Tristar
Gym
Weight
Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Wineland is coming off a loss to Renan Barao by TKO at UFC 165
(September 21, 2013). Jabouin is coming off a win over Dustin Pague
by split decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).
Predictions:
Wineland. Jabouin's a good fighter but is very predictable. He's most
a striker and won't go for submissions. Wineland has a very good chin
as he's only been knocked out once (he's been TKOed twice but the
first was due to injury) and that was to Renan Barao who is
considered the best bantamweight in the world. Jabouin has been
knocked out three times so Wineland could have an easier chance of
knocking out Jabouin than Jabouin over Wineland. Wineland is 2-3 in
his last five fights but they were to some of the top fighters like
Barao, Urijah Faber, and Joseph Benavidez. Wineland's lost most of
his fights by submission but Jabouin has only won one fight by
submission so he may not be able to exploit it. Wineland has only
been finished two times in five years but Jabouin isn't Barao and
doesn't have jiu-jitsu skills of Rani Yahya.
Alex
Caceres vs. Sergio Pettis
Nickname: Bruce Leeroy | The Phenom
Height: 5'9 | 5'6
Age: 28 | 20
MMA
Record (UFC): 9-5, 1NC (4-3) | 10-0 (1-0)
Arm
Length: 73 in. | 69
in.
Team: MMA Lab | Roufusport
Weight
Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Caceres is coming off a win over Roland Delorme by split decision at
UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Pettis is undefeated with ten wins. His
recent win was over Will Campuzano by unanimous decision at UFC 167
(November 16, 2013).
Predictions:
Caceres. Caceres made a lot of improvements and showed them in his
last fight. His striking was better and his grappling was better. His
striking now features different angles that could throw Pettis off
his game. Pettis is a prospect but did show some mistakes in his
debut fight as he began to slow down as the fight progressed.
Sometimes young, undefeated up and comers get reckless and make more
mistakes. Caceres will be tougher since Campuzano was a last minute
replacement while Caceres has had time to properly cut weight and get
full training in. Caceres has a good reach advantage and a southpaw
which can frustrate Pettis. Caceres is also good defending striking
and takedown attempts.
Darren
Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens
Nickname: The Damage | Lil' Heathen
Height: 5'10 | 5'9
Age: 29 | 29
MMA
Record (UFC): 17-3 (7-2) | 22-9 (9-8)
Arm
Length: 71 in. | 71 in.
Team: Duneland Vale Tudo | Alliance
MMA
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Elkins is coming off a win over Hatsu Hioki at UFC Fight Night:
Condit vs. Kampmann (August 28, 2013). Stephens is riding a two fight
win streak. His recent win was over Rony Bezerra by KO at UFC Fight
Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013).
Predictions:
Elkins. Elkins has the whole package as he's won most of his fights
by knockout and has great wrestling as he's a former state champion.
Elkins has also only lost once since moving down to featherweight and
that's to a top 3 UFC featherweight in Chad Mendes (though the win
over Michihiro Omigawa is controversial). Elkins is a top 10
featherweight which makes him the toughest opponent Stephens has
faced since moving to featherweight.
Donald
Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
Nickname: Cowboy | None
Height: 6'0 | 5'11
Age: 30 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 21-6, 1NC (8-3) | 25-6 (1-0)
Arm
Length: 73 in. | 72
in.
Team: Jackson's MMA | Top
Life Amazonas
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Cerrone is coming off a win over Evan Dunham by submission at UFC 167
(November 16, 2013). Martins is coming off a win over Daron
Cruickshanks by submission at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson
(November 9, 2013).
Predictions:
Cerrone. Cerrone is the far better striker as he is a former
undefeated muay thai champion and will be the better striker if the
fight remains standing. He's also been tough to put away as he's only
been knocked out by the current Lightweight Champion while he hasn't
been submitted in years and that was to a former UFC Lightweight
Champion. Martins has better grappling credentials but isn't known
for winning by submission. While Cerrone has finished most of his
fights by submission and Martins has never been submitted, Cerrone
could still submit him. Cerrone became the first to defeat Danny
Castillo, James Krause, and Evan Dunham by submission.
Gabriel
Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
Nickname: Napao | None
Height: 6'2 | 6'4
Age: 34 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 16-7 (12-6) | 10-1 (4-1)
Arm
Length: 76 in. | 80 in.
Team: Team Link |
Strong Style Fight Team
Weight
Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Gonzaga is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over
Shawn Jordan by KO at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013). Miocic is coming
off a win over Roy Nelson by unanimous decision at UFC 161 (June 15,
2013).
Predictions:
Miocic. Gonzaga is the better ground fighter but Miocic is a very
good wrestler and could probably hold his own on the ground.
Meanwhile, Miocic is a former golden gloves boxer and should be the
better striker. He's also got a longer reach and could tag Gonzaga
more than Gonzaga will tag him. Gonzaga is a world class grappler but
there's no guarantee that he will use his jiu-jitsu. The biggest
problem for Gonzaga is he's a grappler that falls in love with his
striking too much. While Gonzaga has fought smarter in recent years,
he has scored a few highlight reel knockouts which means K-1 Gonzaga
could show up anytime. If Gonzaga forgets his jiu-jitsu and puts all
his focus on striking then he'll lose.
Ben
Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
Nickname: Smooth | The
Punk
Height: 5'9 | 5'10
Age: 30 | 35
MMA
Record (UFC): 19-3 (7-1) | 20-5, 1NC (3-1)
Arm
Length: 70 in. | 71 in.
Team: MMA Lab | American Kickboxing Academy
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Henderson is coming off a loss to Anthony Pettis by submission at UFC
164 (August 31, 2013). Thomson is coming off a win over Nate Diaz by
TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).
Predictions:
Henderson. Henderson is a very good striker and very good wrestling.
Despite his recent loss to Anthony Pettis, he's very hard to submit
which is a way Thomson has finished most of his opponents. Henderson
has also never been knocked out in his career so Thomson will have a
hard time doing what he did to Nate Diaz. Henderson is also known for
having very good cardio as he can go five rounds without tiring out.
He also knows how to properly use leg kicks which have been one of
his best weapons since coming into the UFC. Finally, worst case
scenario, Henderson is known for having a good track record of
getting close decisions.
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