Monday, January 20, 2014

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson Predictions

                                                  File:UFC on FOX 10.jpg

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson Predictions
January 19, 2014
By Ryan Porzl




Walt Harris vs. Nikita Krylov
Nickname:                                      The Big Ticket |      Al Capone
Height:                                                    6'4          |          6'3
Age:                                                         30           |          21
MMA Record (UFC):                        5-2 (0-1)    |      15-3 (0-1)
Arm Length:                                       Unknown    |      Unknown
Team:                                    American Top Team |    YK Promotion
Weight Class:                                    Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Harris is coming off a loss to Jared Rosholt by unanimous decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale (November 30, 2013). Krylov is coming off a loss to Soa Palelei by TKO at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013).

Predictions: Harris. It's hard to go with Krylov after his infamous debut against Soa Palelei. He didn't show good striking or submission and his cardio was worse than you would expect even for a heavyweight. Harris has good striking and knockout power with all of his wins happening by way of TKO. Harris also has a better gym as he trains at ATT and should have great sparring partners to improve the holes in his game. Harris has also never been finished in his MMA career to date while Krylov is coming off his first knockout loss. If a gassed and tired Soa Palelei can knock out Krylov then Harris should too. Krylov has won most of his fights by submission and while Rosholt beat Harris with his grappling, Harris has probably been working on that since he knows it needs work.

George Sullivan vs. Mike Rhodes
Nickname:                                           None             |        Biggie
Height:                                                   6'0               |          6'0
Age:                                                    Unknown         |    Unknown
MMA Record (UFC):                       14-3 (0-0)       |     6-1 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                        Unknown       |     Unknown
Team:                                              Pellegrino MMA |    Roufusport
Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Both Sullivan and Rhodes' UFC debuts

Preview: Sullivan is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Jesus Martinez by TKO at CFFC 26 (August 17, 2013). Rhodes is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Alan Jouban at RFA 10 (October 25, 2013).

Predictions: Rhodes. Both guys are pretty even in that they prefer to knock out their opponents and have never been knocked out. But the difference may be in Rhodes training in Roufusport. Duke Roufus is a former kickboxer and learning from him should make him the better striker of the two. Rhodes may also have a better advantage on the ground. Rhodes has only lost once by submission while Sullivan has lost three. Rhodes has also won one fight by submission while Sullivan has never won a fight by submission. Meanwhile, former Olympic wrestler Ben Askren is the wrestling coach at Roufusport and Rhodes can learn a lot in the grappling department.

Daron Cruickshank vs. Mike Rio
Nickname:                                   The Detroit Superstar   |  The Wolverine
Height:                                                  5'8                      |      5'10
Age:                                                       28                      |        32
MMA Record (UFC):                     13-4 (3-2)               |    9-3 (1-2)
Arm Length:                                        72 in.                    |      70 in.
Team:                                              DC Prodigies            |   Zen Jiu-Jitsu
Weight Class:                                         Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cruickshank is coming off a loss to Adriano Martins by submission at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013). Rio is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Tony Ferguson by submission at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013).

Predictions: Cruickshank. Cruickshank could take this because he is the more well-rounded. Despite never winning a fight by submission and being mostly a knockout artist, Cruickshank has more tools. He's a better striker with a black belt in Taekwondo, he's a good wrestler as he's a former NCAA Division III Wrestler, and he's good with striking and takedown defense. If Cruickshank can prevent the takedown and keep the fight standing, he can likely win by either knockout or by points. Rio has never been knocked out but that hasn't stopped Cruickshank before. In his fight with Henry Martinez back at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz, Cruickshank became the first to knock Martinez out so he's no stranger to given fighter's their first knockout.

Ramiro Hernandez vs. Hugo Viana
Nickname:                                            Junior                |     Wolverine
Height:                                                    5'9                  |         5'6
Age:                                                         27                  |          31
MMA Record (UFC):                       13-5 (0-1)           |      7-1 (2-1)
Arm Length:                                       Unknown            |         67 in.
Team:                                     Miletich Fighting Systems | Champion Team
Weight Class:                                       Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Hernandez is coming off a loss to Lucas Martins by technical submission at UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs. Bader (September 4, 2013). Viana is coming off a loss to TJ Dillashaw by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).

Predictions: Hernandez. Viana has skill but he's not a finisher. Of his seven wins, he's only finished one fight. Though Hernandez hasn't finished a fight in years, nine out of his thirteen wins are way of finishes. It's going to be hard for Viana to win with Hernandez being a finisher and being hard to finish. Hernandez also has a three inch reach advantage.

Chico Camus vs. Yaotzin Meza
Nickname:                                            King           |            None
Height:                                                   5'6             |             5'9 
Age:                                                        28             |              32
MMA Record (UFC):                      13-4 (2-1)      |        20-8 (1-1)
Arm Length:                                         66 in.          |            71 in.
Team:                                                 Roufusport    |         MMA Lab
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Camus is coming off a win over Kyung Ho Kang by unanimous decision at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Meza is coming off a win over John Albert by submission at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013).

Predictions: Camus. Camus is a better striker and has good wrestling. He has better striking defense than Meza and is harder to put away. Camus has only been knocked out once and submited once while Meza was submitted three times and knocked out three times. Camus also has good accuracy and will likely land more strikes.

Eddie Wineland vs. Yves Jabouin
Nickname:                                          None              |         Tiger
Height:                                                  5'9               |           5'6
Age:                                                       29               |            34
MMA Record (UFC):                    29-8-1 (2-3)      |      19-8 (4-2)
Arm Length:                                        69 in.            |          66 in.
Team:                                     New Breed Academy |     Tristar Gym
Weight Class:                                 Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Wineland is coming off a loss to Renan Barao by TKO at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Jabouin is coming off a win over Dustin Pague by split decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).

Predictions: Wineland. Jabouin's a good fighter but is very predictable. He's most a striker and won't go for submissions. Wineland has a very good chin as he's only been knocked out once (he's been TKOed twice but the first was due to injury) and that was to Renan Barao who is considered the best bantamweight in the world. Jabouin has been knocked out three times so Wineland could have an easier chance of knocking out Jabouin than Jabouin over Wineland. Wineland is 2-3 in his last five fights but they were to some of the top fighters like Barao, Urijah Faber, and Joseph Benavidez. Wineland's lost most of his fights by submission but Jabouin has only won one fight by submission so he may not be able to exploit it. Wineland has only been finished two times in five years but Jabouin isn't Barao and doesn't have jiu-jitsu skills of Rani Yahya.

Alex Caceres vs. Sergio Pettis
Nickname:                                        Bruce Leeroy   |    The Phenom
Height:                                                     5'9            |        5'6
Age:                                                          28            |         20
MMA Record (UFC):                    9-5, 1NC (4-3) |     10-0 (1-0)
Arm Length:                                            73 in.         |        69 in.
Team:                                                  MMA Lab    |      Roufusport
Weight Class:                                      Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Caceres is coming off a win over Roland Delorme by split decision at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Pettis is undefeated with ten wins. His recent win was over Will Campuzano by unanimous decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Caceres. Caceres made a lot of improvements and showed them in his last fight. His striking was better and his grappling was better. His striking now features different angles that could throw Pettis off his game. Pettis is a prospect but did show some mistakes in his debut fight as he began to slow down as the fight progressed. Sometimes young, undefeated up and comers get reckless and make more mistakes. Caceres will be tougher since Campuzano was a last minute replacement while Caceres has had time to properly cut weight and get full training in. Caceres has a good reach advantage and a southpaw which can frustrate Pettis. Caceres is also good defending striking and takedown attempts.

Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens
Nickname:                                      The Damage   |        Lil' Heathen
Height:                                                5'10           |            5'9
Age:                                                      29             |            29
MMA Record (UFC):                     17-3 (7-2)     |        22-9 (9-8)
Arm Length:                                       71 in.          |          71 in.
Team:                                    Duneland Vale Tudo |     Alliance MMA
Weight Class:                                 Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Elkins is coming off a win over Hatsu Hioki at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann (August 28, 2013). Stephens is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Rony Bezerra by KO at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013).

Predictions: Elkins. Elkins has the whole package as he's won most of his fights by knockout and has great wrestling as he's a former state champion. Elkins has also only lost once since moving down to featherweight and that's to a top 3 UFC featherweight in Chad Mendes (though the win over Michihiro Omigawa is controversial). Elkins is a top 10 featherweight which makes him the toughest opponent Stephens has faced since moving to featherweight.

Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
Nickname:                                       Cowboy          |            None
Height:                                                 6'0               |            5'11
Age:                                                      30               |              31
MMA Record (UFC):                 21-6, 1NC (8-3) |         25-6 (1-0)
Arm Length:                                        73 in.            |            72 in.
Team:                                             Jackson's MMA |  Top Life Amazonas
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cerrone is coming off a win over Evan Dunham by submission at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013). Martins is coming off a win over Daron Cruickshanks by submission at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013).

Predictions: Cerrone. Cerrone is the far better striker as he is a former undefeated muay thai champion and will be the better striker if the fight remains standing. He's also been tough to put away as he's only been knocked out by the current Lightweight Champion while he hasn't been submitted in years and that was to a former UFC Lightweight Champion. Martins has better grappling credentials but isn't known for winning by submission. While Cerrone has finished most of his fights by submission and Martins has never been submitted, Cerrone could still submit him. Cerrone became the first to defeat Danny Castillo, James Krause, and Evan Dunham by submission.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
Nickname:                                           Napao            |         None
Height:                                                   6'2               |           6'4
Age:                                                        34                |           31
MMA Record (UFC):                      16-7 (12-6)       |      10-1 (4-1)
Arm Length:                                         76 in.             |         80 in.
Team:                                                Team Link        | Strong Style Fight Team
Weight Class:                                        Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Gonzaga is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Shawn Jordan by KO at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013). Miocic is coming off a win over Roy Nelson by unanimous decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).

Predictions: Miocic. Gonzaga is the better ground fighter but Miocic is a very good wrestler and could probably hold his own on the ground. Meanwhile, Miocic is a former golden gloves boxer and should be the better striker. He's also got a longer reach and could tag Gonzaga more than Gonzaga will tag him. Gonzaga is a world class grappler but there's no guarantee that he will use his jiu-jitsu. The biggest problem for Gonzaga is he's a grappler that falls in love with his striking too much. While Gonzaga has fought smarter in recent years, he has scored a few highlight reel knockouts which means K-1 Gonzaga could show up anytime. If Gonzaga forgets his jiu-jitsu and puts all his focus on striking then he'll lose.

Ben Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
Nickname:                                         Smooth           |       The Punk
Height:                                                  5'9              |           5'10
Age:                                                       30               |           35
MMA Record (UFC):                      19-3 (7-1)       |   20-5, 1NC (3-1)
Arm Length:                                         70 in.           |          71 in.
Team:                                                 MMA Lab     |  American Kickboxing Academy
Weight Class:                                         Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Henderson is coming off a loss to Anthony Pettis by submission at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Thomson is coming off a win over Nate Diaz by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).


Predictions: Henderson. Henderson is a very good striker and very good wrestling. Despite his recent loss to Anthony Pettis, he's very hard to submit which is a way Thomson has finished most of his opponents. Henderson has also never been knocked out in his career so Thomson will have a hard time doing what he did to Nate Diaz. Henderson is also known for having very good cardio as he can go five rounds without tiring out. He also knows how to properly use leg kicks which have been one of his best weapons since coming into the UFC. Finally, worst case scenario, Henderson is known for having a good track record of getting close decisions. 

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