UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez II Predictions

                         

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez II Predictions

December 6, 2013

By Ryan Porzl

Darren Uyenoyama vs. Alptekin Ozkilic

Nickname:                                         BC                    |              Alp

Height:                                               5'6                    |               5'7

Age:                                                    34                     |               27

MMA Record (UFC):                    8-4 (2-1)              |          8-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                     65 in.                 |           Unknown

Team:                              Faito Tamashii Combat Club |   St. Charles MMA

Weight Class:                                            Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Ozkilic is replacing John Moraga.

Preview: Uyenoyama is coming off a loss to Joseph Benavidez by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013). Ozkilic is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Antonio Banuelos at LFC 20 (May 31, 2013).

Predictions: Uyenoyama. Uyenoyama isn't a special fighter and he's kind of predictable but he should still be able to pull it off. Uyenoyama is a very good grappler and received half of his wins by submission. It should also help that Uyenoyama was originally training for John Moraga who was a much harder opponent. The fact he was preparing for a former UFC title contender and is now getting a newcomer should work in his favor.

Sam Stout vs. Cody McKenzie

Nickname:                                  Hands of Stone |        AK Kid

Height:                                                  5'9          |            6'0

Age:                                                       29          |             25

MMA Record (UFC):                    19-9-1 (8-8) |       14-3 (3-3)

Arm Length:                                        70 in.       |           74 in.

Team:                                          Team Tompkins | Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Stout is coming off a loss to James Krause by submission at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013). McKenzie is coming off a win over Leonard Garcia by unanimous decision

Predictions: McKenzie. McKenzie is another one dimensional guy but he should still be able to do it. McKenzie is a very good grappler as he has over twelve wins by submission. Perhaps another benefit for McKenzie is the fact his specialty is the guillotine choke which Stout submitted to in his last fight. Despite being called “Hands of Stone”, Stout has only won one fight by knockout in his long UFC career (vs. Yves Edwards at UFC 131 in June 2011). Like most members of Team Tompkins, Stout has clearly struggled since the death of head trainer Shawn Tompkins back in August 2011. Since then, Stout has gone 2-3 with one of his wins being a close split decision.

Abel Trujillo vs. Roger Bowling

Nickname:                                           Killa          |        Relentless

Height:                                                  5'8           |             5'9

Age:                                                       30           |              31

MMA Record (UFC):     10-5, 1NC (1-1, 1NC) | 11-4, 1NC (0-1, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                        70 in.         |           70 in.

Team:                                              Blackzilians    |       Team Vision

Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Trujillo is coming off a no contest to Roger Bowling at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann II (August 28, 2013). Bowling is coming off a no contest to Abel Trujillo at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann II (August 28, 2013).

Predictions: Trujillo. Trujillo is probably more well-rounded as he's won an even amount of fights by knockout and submission. Bowling is mostly wins by knockout but he's also been knocked out in three of his four losses. Meanwhile, Trujillo has a good chin as he's only been knocked out once and that was three years ago. He's also a good striker and has good takedown defense as he showed in his debut fight against Marcus LeVesseur.

Bobby Green vs. Pat Healy

Nickname:                                                 King          |    Bam Bam

Height:                                                       5'10           |        6'0

Age:                                                             27            |         30

MMA Record (UFC):                           21-5 (2-0)     | 31-16,1NC (0-1, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                              73 in.         |        72 in.

Team:                                                Pinnacle Jiu-Jitsu |     Sports Lab

Weight Class:                                          Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Green is replacing Jamie Varner

Preview: Green is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over James Krause by TKO at UFC Fight for the Troops 3 (November 6, 2013). Healy is coming off a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013).

Predictions: Healy. Healy is a very good grappler and has good takedown defense. He's also tough to put away as he hasn't been knocked out in seven years and submitted in three. Green is talented but this is a big step up in competition. Green is also taking the fight on short notice and fought only a month ago. Sometimes when fighters immediately fight again and especially on short notice, it proves that it can haunt you. Sometimes fighters get eager to build their momentum and they lose it cause they dived in to a fight too soon. This could be the case with Green.

Scott Jorgenson vs. Zach Makovsky

Nickname:                                      Young Guns      |        Fun Size

Height:                                                   5'6             |            5'4

Age:                                                        31              |            31

MMA Record (UFC):                      14-7 (3-3)      |        16-4 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                          66 in.         |         Unknown

Team:                                           Twisted Genetiks |      Team Extreme

Weight Class:                                         Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Jorgenson's Flyweight debut. Makovsky's UFC debut. Makovsky is replacing John Dodson.

Preview: Jorgenson is coming off a loss to Urijah Faber by submission at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale (April 13, 2013). Makovsky is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Matt Manzanares by unanimous decision at RFA 11 (November 22, 2013).

Predictions: Makovsky. Makovsky is a very late replacement but it won't matter. For one thing, this is Jorgenson's first fight at Flyweight and it's unknown how well Jorgenson will perform and it's unknown how the weight cut is going. You also look at both fighters and how they were once bantamweights only to drop to flyweight but the reasons are different. The difference is that Makovsky dropped to flyweight because he is a natural flyweight while Jorgenson is clearly dropping to revive his career. Makovsky is also a very good grappler who was a NCAA Division I wrestler and won some grappling honors.

Edson Barboza vs. Danny Castillo

Nickname:                                          Junior            |        Last Call

Height:                                                  5'11            |             5'9

Age:                                                       27              |              34

MMA Record (UFC):                      12-1 (6-1)      |         16-5 (6-2)

Arm Length:                                        75 in.            |            71 in.

Team:                                              Valor MMA     |    Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Barboza is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Rafaello Oliveira by TKO at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Castillo is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Tim Means by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013).

Predictions: Barboza. Barboza has proven to be a very dangerous striker given his highlight reel of knockouts as well as accomplishments in Muay Thai. He's holds black belts in Muay Thai and Taekwondo which should make him the better striker. Barboza also has a four inch reach advantage and should know how to use it to keep Castillo at bay and possibly frustrate him. More importantly, Barboza is not one dimensional as he also holds a purple belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, has very good takedown defense, and has never been submitted.

Court McGee vs. Ryan LaFlare

Nickname:                                        The Crusher    |          None

Height:                                                   5'11           |            6'1

Age:                                                         29            |             30

MMA Record (UFC):                        16-3 (5-2)    |        9-0 (2-0)

Arm Length:                                          76 in.         |        Unknown

Team:                                                    The Pit       |  Kickboxing Academy

Weight Class:                                        Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: LaFlare is replacing Kelvin Gastelum.

Preview: McGee is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Robert Whittaker by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann II (August 28, 2013). LaFlare is undefeated at nine wins. His recent win was over Santiago Ponzinibbio by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013).

Predictions: McGee. McGee is a pretty big welterweight as he once fought in Middleweight so it might be difficult for LaFlare to control him should he get him on the ground. LaFlare is not only a replacement but he just fought a month ago. Usually when a fighter fights one month and then takes another one on short notice a month later, it can come back to haunt him. LaFlare is also coming off a three round fight as well. This could be a case of biting off more than you can chew. McGee is also good defensively as he has good striking defense and very good takedown defense. He also has very good stamina and won't tire out.

Joe Lauzon vs. Mac Danzig

Nickname:                                              J-Lau        |        None

Height:                                                     5'10         |          5'8

Age:                                                           29          |           33

MMA Record (UFC):                         22-9 (9-6)   |     21-11 (5-7)

Arm Length:                                            70 in.       |          70 in.

Team:                                                 Lauzon MMA |        PKG

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Lauzon is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Michael Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013). Danzig is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Melvin Guillard by KO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013).

Predictions: Danzig. Lauzon is one of those guys that has seen better days. The type of fights he's been in are the type of fights that take years off a career. In the last two years, Lauzon got head kicked & knocked out, bled like a stuck pig against Jim Miller, and picked apart by Michael Johnson. Danzig is not elite but he's also not a bad fighter either. He has decent power, he's a good grappler, and he's pretty tough as he has a pretty good chin and can still win fights even if he gets hurt as shown in the Efrain Escudero fight. Lauzon is mostly a submission guy so Danzig shouldn't have to worry about getting knocked out like he did against Guillard or face a talented wrestler with punching power and good boxing like Takanori Gomi.

Chad Mendes vs. Nik Lentz

Nickname:                                              Money         |     The Carny

Height:                                                       5'6            |          5'8

Age:                                                            28            |           29

MMA Record (UFC):                           15-1 (6-1)    | 24-5-2, 1NC (8-2-1, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                             66 in.         |         68 in.

Team:                                             Team Alpha Male | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                       Featherweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Mendes is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Clay Guida by TKO on UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Lentz is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Hacran Dias by unanimous decision at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013).

Predictions: Mendes. It's hard to go against Money. Mendes has always been a great wrestler but like most of the Team Alpha Male fighters, Mendes has seen big improvement in his striking. Since his striking has improved, it clearly has added more tools to Mendes' arsenal as he's shown to have a lot of knockout power with the way he been knocking fighters out left and right including being first to knockout Clay Guida. Overall, Mendes is the more well-rounded fighter and should be able to win this anyway he wants as he's probably better in every way.

Urijah Faber vs. Michael McDonald

Nickname:                            The California Kid |           Mayday

Height:                                               5'6           |               5'8

Age:                                                    34            |               22

MMA Record (UFC):                 29-6 (5-2)      |          16-2 (5-1)

Arm Length:                                     69 in.         |              70 in.

Team:                                     Team Alpha Male |      Oakdale MMA

Weight Class:                                 Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Faber is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Iuri Alcantara by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013). McDonald is coming off a win over Brad Pickett by submission at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).

Predictions: Faber. Not taking anything away from McDonald but Faber has looked dominate since the Barao loss. Outside of the first minute against Alcantara, Faber hasn't looked vulnerable at all in the past year. Like the rest of Team Alpha Male, Faber has seen big improvement in his striking and already has punching power. Faber is a very good wrestler and a brown belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu. Overall, Faber is a weird case. If he faces anyone that's not the champion, he looks almost unbeatable but put against a champion and he has a hard time getting over the hump. McDonald has the tools to be champion one day but Faber is probably better now.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Joseph Benavidez

Nickname:                                   Mighty Mouse        |       The Beefcake

Height:                                                  5'3                |            5'4

Age:                                                       27                |             29

MMA Record (UFC):                  18-2-1 (6-1-1)     |        19-3 (6-1)

Arm Length:                                        66 in.             |           65 in.

Team:                                          AMC Pankration    |     Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                     Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Flyweight Championship

Preview: Johnson is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over John Moraga by submission at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013). Benavidez is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Jussier Formiga by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs. Bader (September 4, 2013).

Predictions: Johnson. Benavidez has made a lot of improvement since the last encounter but it won't be enough. Sure Benavidez has improved his striking and is still a great wrestler but he hasn't shown he can neutralize the speed of Johnson. Johnson has been considered by a lot of people to be the fastest fighter in the UFC. Not many fighters have had an answer for Johnson's speed including Benavidez who couldn't get much and seemed one step too slow in their last fight. Johnson is also a great wrestler and can control other great wrestlers like John Moraga. He has also shown he can be good with submissions if given the chance. Finally, Benavidez comes off like his mentor Urijah Faber in that when he fights anyone besides the champ then he looks like a killer but against the champ, he can't get the job done.