UFC 168 Predictions
December 21, 2013
Robbie Peralta vs. Estevan Payan
Nickname: Problems | El Terrible
Height: 5'8 | 5'10
Age: 27 | 31
MMA Record (UFC): 16-4, 1NC (2-1, 1NC) | 14-4, 1NC (0-1)
Arm Length: 71 in. | 73 in.
Team: Team Xplode MMA | Arizona Combat Sports
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Peralta is coming off a loss to Akira Corassani by unanimous decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs. Latifi (April 6, 2013). Payan is coming off a loss to Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision at UFC 160 (May 25, 2013).
Predictions: Peralta. Both fighters prefer to strike and if this fight stays standing then Peralta should have the advantage. Twelve of his sixteen wins have come by knockout and he has never been knocked in his career. One the other hand, Payan has been knocked out twice in his career. While not recently, the point is that Peralta has better odds of knocking out Payan should the fight stay standing. He also has very good takedown defense so it could be difficult for Payan to get the fight to the ground if he tries.
William Macario vs. Bobby Voelker
Nickname: Patolino | Vicious
Height: 5'10 | 6'0
Age: 22 | 34
MMA Record (UFC): 6-1 (0-1) | 24-10 (0-2)
Arm Length: 74 in. | 74 in.
Team: Pejor Fight Team | American Jujitsu
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Macario is coming off a loss to Leonardo Santos by submission at UFC on Fuel TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum (June 8, 2013). Voelker is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Robbie Lawler by KO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013).
Predictions: Macario. Both guys prefer to strike and have won the majority of their fights by knockout. However, Macario has never been knocked out in his career while Voelker has been knocked out at least three times including his recent fight. Macario is better defensively which means he has a better chance of hitting something on Voelker than Voelker does on him.
John Howard vs. Siyar Bahadurzada
Nickname: Doomsday | The Great
Height: 5'7 | 5'11
Age: 30 | 29
MMA Record (UFC): 21-8 (4-3) | 21-5 (1-1)
Arm Length: 72 in. | 72.5 in.
Team: Wai Kru MMA | Blackzilians
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Howard is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Uriah Hall by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013). Bahadurzada is coming off a loss to Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision by UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013).
Predictions: Howard. Siyar Bahadurzada is a very dangerous striker but he does have a lot of weaknesses. He's not the best grappler and looked lost when he was outgrappled by Dong Hyun Kim. Howard isn't the grappler that Kim is but it's still something he can exploit. Bahadurzada is also a very injury prone fighter and always seems to be getting hurt. Howard has also faced tough strikers as he moved up to middleweight to face Uriah Hall. Granted, Hall didn't show much killer instinct but he's still tough. He's also faced fighters like Matt Brown and Thiago Alves who hit very hard but despite losing, he was never knocked out against either of them. The point is that Howard is tough and can take shots.
Dennis Siver vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Nickname: The Menace | The Anvil
Height: 5'7 | 5'5
Age: 34 | 31
MMA Record (UFC): 21-9, (10-6) | 13-7 (4-5)
Arm Length: 70 in. | 67 in.
Team: Kiboju | Team Hayastan
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Siver is coming off a loss to Cub Swanson by TKO at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Gamburyan is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Cole Miller by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).
Predictions: Siver. Siver is a tough, well-rounded fighter. He has a lot of power and a very good striker with punches, kicks, and even body shots which not many fighters use. Gamburyan is also a one-dimensional fighter that uses his judo to control fighters and submit them. If Siver can keep the fight standing then he will win as Gamburyan doesn't have a lot of power while Siver is a better striker with a three inch reach advantage. Siver is also a lower top ten kind of fighter which are the type of fighters that usually lose to the elite fighters. Gamburyan isn't Donald Cerrone or Cub Swanson.
Gleison Tibau vs. Michael Johnson
Nickname: None | The Menace
Height: 5'9 | 5'10
Age: 30 | 27
MMA Record (UFC): 28-9 (13-7) | 13-8 (5-4)
Arm Length: 71 in. | 72 in.
Team: American Top Team | Blackzilians
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Tibau is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Jamie Varner by split decision at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Johnson is coming off a win over Joe Lauzon by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).
Predictions: Tibau. Tibau has a lot going for him. He's a huge lightweight who has very good conditioning, wrestling, and brazilian jiu-jitsu. He may be predictable but he's still good at what he does. He also has a very good chin and submission defense. He shouldn't have to worry about getting submitted since Johnson isn't Joe Stevenson and doesn't have great submission skills. Johnson hits hard but Tibau hasn't been knocked out in seven years (Nick Diaz at UFC 65). Johnson is also hard to predict as he looks great when he's on but then there are times when he blows it. He's also a submission magnet as six of his eight losses have come via submission. Johnson has also struggled with wrestlers in the past as he didn't have a solution to deal with the wrestling of Reza Madadi earlier this year and was eventually submitted.
Chris Leben vs. Uriah Hall
Nickname: The Crippler | Prime Time
Height: 5'11 | 6'0
Age: 33 | 29
MMA Record (UFC): 22-10 (12-9) | 7-4 (0-2)
Arm Length: 70.5 in. | 80.5 in.
Team: Alliance MMA | Reign Training Center
Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Leben is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Andrew Craig by split decision at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Hall is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to John Howard by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).
Predictions: Hall. This one is the wildcard fight on the card. The one that can go anyway and not much is certain. If this was 2004, 2005, or even 2010 Leben, I may have gone with him given that Hall had fumbled the ball so many times. But this is 2013 Leben so Hall is the pick. Hall may not have the killer instinct that a fighter needs but he does have the talent and skill. Leben is a vet and a tough guy but he's too far gone at this point. He's destroyed his body both in the cage with his “Take two to give one” style and outside the cage with his self-destructive lifestyle. He's been competing for over eleven years and 32 fights which is a lot for his style. Also Hall lost his last two fights but both were by close split decisions. At the same time, Leben isn't Kelvin Gastelum who is a young up and comer with a lot of potential and he's not as healthy as John Howard. Also, Leben hasn't looked good in years. The last time he looked great was two years ago against an aging Wanderlei Silva who was foolish to get into a fire fight with Leben which Hall won't do.
Dustin Poirier vs. Diego Brandao
Nickname: The Diamond | DB
Height: 5'9 | 5'7
Age: 24 | 26
MMA Record (UFC): 14-3 (6-2) | 18-8 (4-1)
Arm Length: 73 in. | 69 in.
Team: American Top Team | Jackson's MMA
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Poirier is coming off a win over Erik Koch by unanimous decision at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Brandao is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Daniel Pineda by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs Shogun (August 17, 2013).
Predictions: Poirier. Both are well-rounded but Poirier is harder to finish. He's never been knocked out and only submitted once. Brandao has won most of his fights by knockout. However, Poirier has not only never been knocked out but he is the only fighter that top five featherweight Cub Swanson failed to knock out in his current five fight win streak. Though Poirier hasn't won a fight by knockout in a few years, he has won five fights by knockout while Brandao has lost the majority of his fights by knockout which is something to consider. Poirier will also come in with a four inch reach advantage.
Jim Miller vs. Fabricio Camoes
Nickname: None | Morango
Height: 5'8 | 5'10
Age: 30 | 34
MMA Record (UFC): 22-4, 1NC (11-3, 1NC) | 14-7-1 (1-2-1)
Arm Length: 71 in. | Unknown
Team: AMA Fight Club | Gracie Humaita
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Miller is unbeaten in two fights (1 win, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a no contest to Pat Healy at UFC 159 (April 27, 2013). Camoes is coming off a loss to Melvin Guillard by unanimous decision at UFC 148 (July 7, 2012).
Predictions: Miller. This fight screams “Tune up”. To start, Camoes hasn't fought in over a year and a half. No fighter wants to fight a guy like Jim Miller after an eighteen month layoff. Miller wins most of his fights by submission while Camoes has lost most of his fights by submission. Camoes isn't an elite fighter either while Miller is a top ten UFC fighter.
Josh Barnett vs. Travis Browne
Nickname: The Warmaster | Hapa
Height: 6'3 | 6'7
Age: 36 | 31
MMA Record (UFC): 33-6 (5-1) | 15-1-1 (6-1-1)
Arm Length: 78 in. | 80 in.
Team: CSW | Jackson's MMA
Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
Preview: Barnett is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Frank Mir by TKO at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Browne is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win is over Alistair Overeem by KO at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).
Predictions: Browne. Browne may be too much for Barnett. He's the better striker and if he can keep this fight standing up, then he'll win as he has a longer reach and is more comfortable standing up. Browne has very good takedown defense and is hard to control on the ground or in the clinch. Barnett may be a great grappler but so is Gabriel Gonzaga and when he went to take Browne down, he was blitzed with elbows until he fell on the canvas unconscious. Browne is also training with Jackson and they should have a gameplan ready. Finally, Browne is not only well-rounded but hasn't shown many weaknesses yet. His chin seems reliable, he has good striking, good submissions, and good takedown defense. The only time he lost was to Bigfoot Silva after he tore his hamstring. Not even counting the hamstring injury, Browne was knocked out but by a very heavy handed fighter. Barnett doesn't have the power that Bigfoot has.
Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate
Nickname: Rowdy | Cupcake
Height: 5'6 | 5'6
Age: 26 | 27
MMA Record (UFC): 7-0 (1-0) | 13-4 (0-1)
Arm Length: 66 in. | 64.5 in.
Team: Hayastan Studio | Team Alpha Male
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Notes: For the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship. Tate is replacing Cat Zingano
Preview: Rousey is undefeated with seven wins. Her recent win was over Liz Carmouche by submission at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013). Tate is coming off a loss to Cat Zingano by TKO at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 17 (April 13, 2013).
Predictions: Rousey. I don't know what to say. Rousey may be a one-trick pony but it's an effective trick and she's been able to pull off everytime to date. Rousey already beat Tate once before and Tate hasn't shown a lot of improvement to give the impression it won't happen again. The fact she's a replacement and coming off a loss to a fighter that beat her gives me an even harder time to think she has a chance. Tate's a good wrestler but her wrestling couldn't help her against Rousey. To make matters worse, even if Tate was able to keep the fight standing, she would still have a hard time beating Rousey. Tate has only won by knockout three times in her career and the most recent was four years ago. It will be very challenging for Tate to get a knockout or submission and even more challenging to go five rounds to secure a decision.
Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva
Nickname: The All-American | The Spider
Height: 6'2 | 6'2
Age: 29 | 38
MMA Record (UFC): 10-0 (6-0) | 33-5 (16-1)
Arm Length: 78 in. | 77.6 in.
Team: Serra-Longo Fight Team | Black House
Weight Class: Middleweight (205 pounds)
Notes: For the UFC Middleweight Championship
Preview: Weidman is undefeated with ten wins. His recent win was over Anderson Silva by KO at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Silva is coming off a loss to Chris Weidman by KO at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013).
Predictions: Silva. Silva is still a legend and it's hard to go against someone who's been dominate for so long. It reminds me of Fedor Emelianenko leading up to his fight with Bigfoot Silva where it was hard to go against him despite his loss to Fabricio Werdum because he was dominate for so long. Silva is still a very talented fighter. He's got great knockout power and an underrated ground game. Silva also seems motivated which will make him tough to beat. He may also want this fight more since this could be it. While it would be bad for Weidman to lose since fans may accuse him of being a fluke, Weidman is still young and will have more opportunities in the future. At 38 years old, 16 years of fighting, and nearly 40 fights, Silva doesn't have much time left. This could potentially be the last title shot of his career.
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