UFC 166
Predictions
October
18, 2013
By Ryan
Porzl
Dustin
Pague vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Nickname: The Disciple | None
Height: 5'9 | 5'5
Age: 26 | 22
MMA
Record (UFC): 11-8 (1-4) | 11-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 74.5 in. | Unknown
Team: Disciple MMA | Krazy
Bee
Weight
Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Notes:
Horiguchi's UFC debut.
Preview:
Pague is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss is to
Yves Jabouin by split decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013). Horiguchi
is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Shintaro
Ishiwateri by TKO at Vale Tudo Japan 2nd
(June 22, 2013).
Predictions:
Horiguchi. While you sometimes have to question how good Japanese
fighters are that are debuting in the UFC or North America but
Horiguchi looks like he'll take it. For starters, the fact that
Horiguchi is facing a guy with a three fight losing streak leads me
to believe that the UFC is trying to give him a favorable fight.
Horiguchi is a heavy handed guy as his styles are karate and boxing
and he also trains at Krazy Bee with guys like Kid Yamamoto, Issei
Tamura, and Kotetsu Boku who are good sparring partners while
Yamamoto and Tamura are very good wrestlers who can help Horiguchi
round out his skills. While most Japanese fighters haven't done well
in the UFC, most are aging veterans who are past their prime, stuck
in their ways, and/or not familiar with fighting in the cage or with
unified rules. Horiguchi is a young guy who hasn't reached his
potential yet and he's fought two times in Vale Tudo Japan which uses
a cage and judges fights round by round. Also most young Japanese
fighters have been proven they can adjust to UFC as we've seen over
the years with Yushin Okami and Takeya Mizugaki.
Jeremy
Larsen vs. Andre Fili
Nickname: None | Touchy
Height: 5'10 | 5'10
Age: 27 | 23
MMA
Record (UFC): 8-4 (0-2) | 12-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 70 in. | 70 in.
Team: Arizona Combat Sports | Team
Alpha Male
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Fili's UFC debut. Fili is replacing Matt Grice.
Preview:
Larsen is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to
Lucas Martin by KO at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013).
Fili is riding an eight fight win streak. His recent win was over
Adrian Diaz by TKO at WFC 5 (May 3, 2013).
Predictions:
Fili. Fili is taking this fight on short notice but it may not
matter. Fili seems like a well-rounded fighter with six wins by
knockout, three by submission, and three by decision. Fili is also
training at Alpha Male so he should have a lot of great trainers to
help him get ready. Finally, Fili has won most of his fights by
knockout while Larsen has been knocked out in his last two fights.
Tony
Ferguson vs. Mike Rio
Nickname: El Cucuy | The
Wolverine
Height: 6'0 | 5'10
Age: 29 | 32
MMA
Record (UFC): 13-3 (3-1) | 9-2 (1-1)
Arm
Length: 76 in. | 70 in.
Team: Reign Training Center | Zen Jiu-Jitsu
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Ferguson is coming off a loss to Michael Johnson by unanimous
decision at UFC on FOX: Diaz vs. Miller (May 5, 2012). Rio is coming
off a loss to Francisco Trinaldo by submission at UFC on FX: Belfort
vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013).
Predictions:
Rio. Ferguson is coming off a year and a half layoff which could
affect him. Rio is also a very good wrestler, he's a tough guy, and
has an even amount of knockout and submission wins (four each).
Ferguson is also a guy that wins most of his fights by knockout but
Rio has never been knocked out in his career.
TJ
Waldburger vs. Adlan Amagov
Nickname: None | Borz
Height: 5'11 | 5'11
Age: 25 | 26
MMA
Record (UFC): 16-7 (4-2) | 12-2-1 (1-0)
Arm
Length: 75 in. | 76
in.
Team: Grapplers Lair |
Jackson's MMA
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Waldburger is coming off a win over Nick Catone by submission at The
Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale (December 15, 2012). Amagov is riding a
two fight win streak. His recent win was over Chris Spang by
unanimous decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs. Latifi (April 6,
2013).
Predictions:
Amagov. Amagov is a big welterweight as he once competed as high as
Light Heavyweight. He's a skilled grappler as he's a master of sports
in sambo and won a few awards. Waldburger wins most of his fights by
submission so Amagov should be able to hold his own on the ground.
Amagov also hits very hard with seven wins by knock out and two knock
out wins that happened less than a minute. Meanwhile, Waldburger is
prone to getting knocked out as he's been knocked out five times to
date. Finally, Amagov is training at Jackson's MMA which is one of
the best gyms in the world.
George
Satiropoulos vs. KJ Noons
Nickname: None | King
Height: 5'10 | 5'11
Age: 36 | 30
MMA
Record (UFC): 14-5 (7-3) | 11-7 (0-1)
Arm
Length: 72 in. | 70 in.
Team: American Top Team | The Arena
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Satiropoulos is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss
was to Ross Pearson by TKO at UFC on FX: Satiropoulos vs. Pearson
(December 15, 2012). Noons is riding a three fight losing streak. His
recent loss was to Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision at UFC 160
(May 25, 2013).
Predictions:
Noons. Noons hasn't looked since the EliteXC days but this should be
winnable. Satiropoulos has been knocked out in his last two fights.
Noons comes from a kickboxing background and has proven to have knock
out power. Satiropoulos has also not been very active in the past two
years as he hasn't had a fight in ten months and prior to that was
inactive for seventeen months. The fact he's lost his last three
fights, is 36 years old, and hasn't been the most active is a clear
indication that his career is on it's last legs. Like I said, Noons
isn't an elite fighter but given all the things Satiropoulos has
against him, it should be a fight that gets him back to his winning
ways.
Bonus
Prediction:
Satiropoulos will retire within a month after this fight.
Sarah
Kaufman vs. Jessica Eye
Nickname: None | Evil
Height: 5'5 | 5'6
Age: 28 | 27
MMA
Record (UFC): 16-2 (0-0) | 10-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 66 in. | 63.5 in.
Team: Jackson's MMA | Strong Style Fight Team
Weight
Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Notes:
Kaufman and Eye's UFC debuts.
Preview:
Kaufman is coming off a win over Leslie Smith by split decision at
Invicta FC 5 (April 5, 2013). Eye is riding a seven fight win streak.
His recent win was over Carina Damm by unanimous decision at NAAFS:
Fight Night in the Flats 9 (June 1, 2013).
Predictions:
Kaufman. Eye is one of the best woman's fighters in the world but she
is used to competing at flyweight and not bantamweight. While that
doesn't always affect fighters, it has been a problem in the past
where cardio is affected. Eye is not a finisher and it could be very
challenging to fight someone like Kaufman for 3 rounds after moving
up a division. Eye has done catchweight fights before but not against
someone like Kaufman.
Nate
Marquardt vs. Hector Lombard
Nickname: The Great | Lightning
Height: 6'0 | 5'9
Age: 34 | 35
MMA
Record (UFC): 32-12-2 (10-5) | 32-4-1, 1NC (1-2)
Arm
Length: 74 in. | 71
in.
Team: High Altitude Martial Arts | American
Top Team
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Lombard's Welterweight debut
Preview:
Marquardt is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to
Jake Ellenberger by KO at UFC 158 (March 16, 2013). Lombard is coming
off a loss to Yushin Okami by split decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva
vs. Stann (March 3, 2013).
Predictions:
Lombard. Yes, this is Lombard's debut at Welterweight and that's a
wildcard but if the cut doesn't affect him then he'll win. Lombard
has all the tools to be successful as he is a black belt in brazilian
jiu-jitsu and judo, has won many awards in judo, and has a lot of
knockout power. Marquardt is also one of those fighters who can be
mentally weak. When he's in control, if not, dominating a fight like
he did against Tyron Woodley then he looks great. But when things
aren't going his way like the Tarec Saffiedine fight or the third
round with Yushin Okami, then he wilts. Marquardt has also been
knocked out in his recent fight with Jake Ellenberger so Lombard
could knock him out if given the chance. If Lombard can be aggressive
and frustrate Marquardt then he will win.
Tim
Boetsch vs. C.B. Dollaway
Nickname: The Barbarian | The Doberman
Height: 6'0 | 6'2
Age: 32 | 30
MMA
Record (UFC): 16-6 (7-5) | 13-4 (7-4)
Arm
Length: 74 in. | 76
in.
Team: AMC Pankration | Power
MMA and Fitness
Weight
Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)
Notes:
Dalloway is replacing Luke Rockhold.
Preview:
Boetsch is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to
Mark Munoz by unanimous decision at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Dollaway
is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Daniel
Sarafian by split decision at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Bisping (January
19, 2013).
Predictions:
Boetsch. Dollaway isn't a bad fighter but he's really nothing
special. Boetsch has struggled with wrestlers in the past like Mark
Munoz and Phil Davis but he should be prepared since he's training
with Matt Hume and AMC Pankration as well as knowing what he needs to
work on. Boetsch also has an underrated wrestling background and he
has proven to have knockout power. Dollaway has also been knocked out
in both of his fights in 2011. Even if that was two years ago, it
still proves that Dollaway can be knocked out.
John
Dodson vs. Darrell Montague
Nickname: The Magician | The Mongoose
Height: 5'3 | 5'6
Age: 29 | 25
MMA
Record (UFC): 14-6 (4-1) | 13-2 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 66 in. | Unknown
Team: Jackson's MMA | Millenia
MMA
Weight
Class: Flyweight (125 pounds)
Notes:
Montague's UFC debut
Preview:
Dodson is coming off a loss to Demetrious Johnson by unanimous
decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013).
Montague is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over
Jesse Miramontes by submission at Submission Championship MMA 2 (May
18, 2013).
Predictions:
Dodson. Montague is a prospect but this is a step up as Dodson is
coming off a title shot. Montague has won an even amount of fights by
knockout and submission but Dodson has never been finished in a
fight. Dodson is also a heavy-handed flyweight and Montague has been
knocked out before in his career. Montague is mostly a wrestler but
Dodson is no stranger to big wrestlers as he's defeated TJ Dillashaw and John Moraga who are not only good wrestlers but bigger opponents as they compete at
bantamweight.
Gabriel
Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan
Nickname: Napao | The
Savage
Height: 6'1 | 6'0
Age: 34 | 28
MMA
Record (UFC): 15-7 (10-6) | 15-4 (2-1)
Arm
Length: 76 in. | 75 in.
Team: Team Link | American Top Team
Weight
Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Gonzaga is coming off a win over Dave Herman by KO at UFC 162 (July
6, 2013). Jordan is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was
over Pat Barry by TKO at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).
Predictions:
Jordan. Both got a lot going for them. Both are great athletes, both
have knockout power, and both have suffered bad knockouts. While
Gonzaga has way better skills on the ground, Jordan has been training
with ATT and what happened with Kongo pinning him against the cage
may not happen again. The thing that helps Jordan is the fact he can
go into a flurry like he did with Pat Barry. If he does that to
Gonzaga then he'll win as Gonzaga is not the type who will fight back
but rather allow himself to get cornered on the cage and let fate
take it's course which is Jordan knocking him into next week. Gonzaga
is a talented fighter but he's not the type of fighter that will pull
out victory from the jaws of defeat. He's the kind of guy that if
he's down two rounds, he'll likely not dig deep and get the win but
rather be one of those fighters that will instead try to hold on and
go the distance. Jordan has proven he's not like that, Jordan lost
the first round in his fight against Mike Russow only to bounce back
and win in the second. Finally, Gonzaga is coming off a seventeen
second knockout win over Dave Herman and sometimes falls in love with
his striking more than he should. We may very well see the dreaded
return of K-1 Gonzaga.
Gilbert
Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez
Nickname: El Nino | The Dream
Height: 5'9 | 5'10
Age: 31 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 21-3 (0-1) | 24-5 (13-5)
Arm
Length: 71 in. | 72 in.
Team: Skrap Pack | Jackson's MMA
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Melendez is coming off a loss to Ben Henderson by split decision at
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).
Predictions:
Melendez. Melendez is easily one of the best lightweights in the
world. Not only has he dominated Strikeforce but he also took then
Lightweight Champion Ben Henderson to the limit. Melendez has good
striking, good jiu-jitsu, has a wrestled in high school, and a lot of
knockout power. Sanchez is a guy who clearly is on the downside of
his career. He's only fought once a year since 2011 and he hasn't
looked good in his recent fights. His win over Martin Kampmann was a
very controversial decision that some considered the robbery of the
year. He then lost to Jake Ellenberger in a fight where he only
looked good in the third round after Ellenberger got tired. His
recent win over Takanori Gomi was another controversial decision. All
in all, Sanchez hasn't looked good since his fight with Paulo Thiago
three years ago at UFC 121. While Melendez's last two fights were
both close split decisions, they were against a fighter who is
scheduled to challenge for the UFC Lightweight Championship (Josh
Thomson) and a fighter who was the reigning champion at the time (Ben
Henderson). Sanchez's close fights were to two Welterweights who are
talented but may never make it to elite status or become title
contenders (Kampmann and Ellenberger) and a Lightweight whose prime
ended five years ago (Gomi).
Daniel
Cormier vs. Roy Nelson
Nickname: DC | Big Country
Height: 5'10 | 6'0
Age: 34 | 37
MMA
Record (UFC): 12-0 (1-0) | 19-8 (6-4)
Arm
Length: 72.5 in. | 73 in.
Team: American Kickboxing Academy | Country
Club
Weight
Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Cormier is undefeated with twelve wins. His recent win was over Frank
Mir by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez
(April 20, 2013). Nelson is coming off a loss to Stipe Miocic by
unanimous decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).
Predictions:
Cormier. What can I say? Cormier has been awesome since coming into
the MMA spotlight. He's an Olympic level wrestler, he has great
takedown defense, he has a good chin, and good striking. At the end
of the day, Nelson is what he is. He has one of the best chins in
MMA, he hits very hard, and has underrated brazilian jiu-jitsu.
However, try as he might, he can't put it all together which makes
him a classic gatekeeper. Nelson is the guy who if he fights a bad,
decent, or a good fighter, he'll usually win and look impressive
doing. But when he's put in a fight with a prospect or elite fighter
then he usually gets beat up from bell to bell. Cormier is exactly
the elite fighter that not only beats Nelson but chews him up and
spits him out.
Cain
Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
Nickname: None | Cigano
Height: 6'1 | 6'4
Age: 32 | 29
MMA
Record (UFC): 12-1 (10-1) | 16-2 (10-1)
Arm
Length: 77 in. | 77 in.
Team: American Kickboxing Academy | Team Nogueira
Weight
Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
For the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Rematch from UFC on FOX:
Velasquez vs. Dos Santos (November 12, 2011) and UFC 155 (December
29, 2012).
Preview:
Velasquez is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over
Antonio Silva by TKO at UFC 160 (May 25, 2013). Dos Santos is coming
off a win over UFC 160 (May 25, 2013).
Predictions:
Velasquez. Both have one win over the other but when you analyze both
fights then you can't help but think Velasquez has the better chance
of winning. In the second fight, Velasquez not only won but also
showed his best was more than enough to defeat Dos Santos as picked
him apart standing, took him down at will and controlled him which
was unheard of given Dos Santos had a reputation for great takedown
defense. In the first fight, Dos Santos won quickly but he also won
by catching Velasquez with a great punch. The fight didn't really
show Dos Santos at his best as it came off more of Dos Santos being
in the right place at the right time. While it's possible for Dos
Santos to catch Velasquez with another punch, the odds of doing that
again to the same opponent aren't that good. In the end, Velasquez
proves he can stand with Dos Santos, he's got better wrestling, he
can take him down and control him, and has some of the best cardio in
the heavyweight division. Having said all of that, the best choice is
the guy who decisively won his fight over the guy who landed the best
punch of his career and will have a hard time making lightning strike
twice.
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