Friday, October 18, 2013

UFC 166 Predictions

A poster or logo for UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3.



UFC 166 Predictions
October 18, 2013
By Ryan Porzl

Dustin Pague vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Nickname:                                      The Disciple    |           None
Height:                                                  5'9            |            5'5
Age:                                                       26            |             22
MMA Record (UFC):                     11-8 (1-4)     |        11-1 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                       74.5 in.        |        Unknown
Team:                                            Disciple MMA   |       Krazy Bee
Weight Class:                                  Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Horiguchi's UFC debut.

Preview: Pague is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss is to Yves Jabouin by split decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013). Horiguchi is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Shintaro Ishiwateri by TKO at Vale Tudo Japan 2nd (June 22, 2013).

Predictions: Horiguchi. While you sometimes have to question how good Japanese fighters are that are debuting in the UFC or North America but Horiguchi looks like he'll take it. For starters, the fact that Horiguchi is facing a guy with a three fight losing streak leads me to believe that the UFC is trying to give him a favorable fight. Horiguchi is a heavy handed guy as his styles are karate and boxing and he also trains at Krazy Bee with guys like Kid Yamamoto, Issei Tamura, and Kotetsu Boku who are good sparring partners while Yamamoto and Tamura are very good wrestlers who can help Horiguchi round out his skills. While most Japanese fighters haven't done well in the UFC, most are aging veterans who are past their prime, stuck in their ways, and/or not familiar with fighting in the cage or with unified rules. Horiguchi is a young guy who hasn't reached his potential yet and he's fought two times in Vale Tudo Japan which uses a cage and judges fights round by round. Also most young Japanese fighters have been proven they can adjust to UFC as we've seen over the years with Yushin Okami and Takeya Mizugaki.

Jeremy Larsen vs. Andre Fili
Nickname:                                                None          |      Touchy
Height:                                                       5'10           |        5'10
Age:                                                             27            |          23
MMA Record (UFC):                           8-4 (0-2)        |    12-1 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                              70 in.          |         70 in.
Team:                                       Arizona Combat Sports | Team Alpha Male
Weight Class:                                       Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: Fili's UFC debut. Fili is replacing Matt Grice.

Preview: Larsen is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Lucas Martin by KO at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013). Fili is riding an eight fight win streak. His recent win was over Adrian Diaz by TKO at WFC 5 (May 3, 2013).

Predictions: Fili. Fili is taking this fight on short notice but it may not matter. Fili seems like a well-rounded fighter with six wins by knockout, three by submission, and three by decision. Fili is also training at Alpha Male so he should have a lot of great trainers to help him get ready. Finally, Fili has won most of his fights by knockout while Larsen has been knocked out in his last two fights.

Tony Ferguson vs. Mike Rio
Nickname:                                             El Cucuy        |  The Wolverine
Height:                                                     6'0               |       5'10
Age:                                                          29               |         32
MMA Record (UFC):                           13-3 (3-1)     |     9-2 (1-1)
Arm Length:                                            76 in.            |       70 in.
Team:                                          Reign Training Center |   Zen Jiu-Jitsu
Weight Class:                                          Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Ferguson is coming off a loss to Michael Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Diaz vs. Miller (May 5, 2012). Rio is coming off a loss to Francisco Trinaldo by submission at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013).

Predictions: Rio. Ferguson is coming off a year and a half layoff which could affect him. Rio is also a very good wrestler, he's a tough guy, and has an even amount of knockout and submission wins (four each). Ferguson is also a guy that wins most of his fights by knockout but Rio has never been knocked out in his career.

TJ Waldburger vs. Adlan Amagov
Nickname:                                        None               |         Borz
Height:                                               5'11                |         5'11
Age:                                                    25                  |           26
MMA Record (UFC):                    16-7 (4-2)         |    12-2-1 (1-0)
Arm Length:                                      75 in.              |          76 in.
Team:                                           Grapplers Lair      | Jackson's MMA
Weight Class:                                        Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Waldburger is coming off a win over Nick Catone by submission at The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale (December 15, 2012). Amagov is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Chris Spang by unanimous decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs. Latifi (April 6, 2013).

Predictions: Amagov. Amagov is a big welterweight as he once competed as high as Light Heavyweight. He's a skilled grappler as he's a master of sports in sambo and won a few awards. Waldburger wins most of his fights by submission so Amagov should be able to hold his own on the ground. Amagov also hits very hard with seven wins by knock out and two knock out wins that happened less than a minute. Meanwhile, Waldburger is prone to getting knocked out as he's been knocked out five times to date. Finally, Amagov is training at Jackson's MMA which is one of the best gyms in the world.

George Satiropoulos vs. KJ Noons
Nickname:                                            None                   |       King
Height:                                                   5'10                    |       5'11
Age:                                                         36                     |         30
MMA Record (UFC):                        14-5 (7-3)             |    11-7 (0-1)
Arm Length:                                          72 in.                   |        70 in.
Team:                                          American Top Team      |     The Arena
Weight Class:                                          Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Satiropoulos is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Ross Pearson by TKO at UFC on FX: Satiropoulos vs. Pearson (December 15, 2012). Noons is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision at UFC 160 (May 25, 2013).

Predictions: Noons. Noons hasn't looked since the EliteXC days but this should be winnable. Satiropoulos has been knocked out in his last two fights. Noons comes from a kickboxing background and has proven to have knock out power. Satiropoulos has also not been very active in the past two years as he hasn't had a fight in ten months and prior to that was inactive for seventeen months. The fact he's lost his last three fights, is 36 years old, and hasn't been the most active is a clear indication that his career is on it's last legs. Like I said, Noons isn't an elite fighter but given all the things Satiropoulos has against him, it should be a fight that gets him back to his winning ways.

Bonus Prediction: Satiropoulos will retire within a month after this fight.

Sarah Kaufman vs. Jessica Eye
Nickname:                                             None            |           Evil
Height:                                                     5'5              |           5'6
Age:                                                          28              |            27
MMA Record (UFC):                        16-2 (0-0)       |      10-1 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                           66 in.            |         63.5 in.
Team:                                              Jackson's MMA   |  Strong Style Fight Team
Weight Class:                                          Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Kaufman and Eye's UFC debuts.

Preview: Kaufman is coming off a win over Leslie Smith by split decision at Invicta FC 5 (April 5, 2013). Eye is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Carina Damm by unanimous decision at NAAFS: Fight Night in the Flats 9 (June 1, 2013).

Predictions: Kaufman. Eye is one of the best woman's fighters in the world but she is used to competing at flyweight and not bantamweight. While that doesn't always affect fighters, it has been a problem in the past where cardio is affected. Eye is not a finisher and it could be very challenging to fight someone like Kaufman for 3 rounds after moving up a division. Eye has done catchweight fights before but not against someone like Kaufman.

Nate Marquardt vs. Hector Lombard
Nickname:                                     The Great           |         Lightning
Height:                                               6'0                  |             5'9
Age:                                                    34                  |              35
MMA Record (UFC):                32-12-2 (10-5)      |    32-4-1, 1NC (1-2)
Arm Length:                                       74 in.              |             71 in.
Team:                                 High Altitude Martial Arts | American Top Team
Weight Class:                                      Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Lombard's Welterweight debut

Preview: Marquardt is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Jake Ellenberger by KO at UFC 158 (March 16, 2013). Lombard is coming off a loss to Yushin Okami by split decision at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013).

Predictions: Lombard. Yes, this is Lombard's debut at Welterweight and that's a wildcard but if the cut doesn't affect him then he'll win. Lombard has all the tools to be successful as he is a black belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo, has won many awards in judo, and has a lot of knockout power. Marquardt is also one of those fighters who can be mentally weak. When he's in control, if not, dominating a fight like he did against Tyron Woodley then he looks great. But when things aren't going his way like the Tarec Saffiedine fight or the third round with Yushin Okami, then he wilts. Marquardt has also been knocked out in his recent fight with Jake Ellenberger so Lombard could knock him out if given the chance. If Lombard can be aggressive and frustrate Marquardt then he will win.

Tim Boetsch vs. C.B. Dollaway
Nickname:                                       The Barbarian |    The Doberman
Height:                                                    6'0           |           6'2
Age:                                                         32           |            30
MMA Record (UFC):                       16-6 (7-5)     |      13-4 (7-4)
Arm Length:                                          74 in.         |          76 in.
Team:                                           AMC Pankration | Power MMA and Fitness
Weight Class:                                          Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Dalloway is replacing Luke Rockhold.

Preview: Boetsch is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Mark Munoz by unanimous decision at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Dollaway is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Daniel Sarafian by split decision at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Bisping (January 19, 2013).

Predictions: Boetsch. Dollaway isn't a bad fighter but he's really nothing special. Boetsch has struggled with wrestlers in the past like Mark Munoz and Phil Davis but he should be prepared since he's training with Matt Hume and AMC Pankration as well as knowing what he needs to work on. Boetsch also has an underrated wrestling background and he has proven to have knockout power. Dollaway has also been knocked out in both of his fights in 2011. Even if that was two years ago, it still proves that Dollaway can be knocked out.

John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague
Nickname:                                    The Magician  |       The Mongoose
Height:                                               5'3             |            5'6
Age:                                                    29             |             25
MMA Record (UFC):                    14-6 (4-1)    |         13-2 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                      66 in.          |         Unknown
Team:                                         Jackson's MMA |      Millenia MMA
Weight Class:                                       Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Montague's UFC debut

Preview: Dodson is coming off a loss to Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013). Montague is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Jesse Miramontes by submission at Submission Championship MMA 2 (May 18, 2013).

Predictions: Dodson. Montague is a prospect but this is a step up as Dodson is coming off a title shot. Montague has won an even amount of fights by knockout and submission but Dodson has never been finished in a fight. Dodson is also a heavy-handed flyweight and Montague has been knocked out before in his career. Montague is mostly a wrestler but Dodson is no stranger to big wrestlers as he's defeated TJ Dillashaw and John Moraga who are not only good wrestlers but bigger opponents as they compete at bantamweight.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan
Nickname:                                           Napao            |      The Savage
Height:                                                   6'1                |           6'0
Age:                                                        34                |            28
MMA Record (UFC):                     15-7 (10-6)         |      15-4 (2-1)
Arm Length:                                          76 in.             |          75 in.
Team:                                                Team Link          |  American Top Team
Weight Class:                                          Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Gonzaga is coming off a win over Dave Herman by KO at UFC 162 (July 6, 2013). Jordan is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Pat Barry by TKO at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).

Predictions: Jordan. Both got a lot going for them. Both are great athletes, both have knockout power, and both have suffered bad knockouts. While Gonzaga has way better skills on the ground, Jordan has been training with ATT and what happened with Kongo pinning him against the cage may not happen again. The thing that helps Jordan is the fact he can go into a flurry like he did with Pat Barry. If he does that to Gonzaga then he'll win as Gonzaga is not the type who will fight back but rather allow himself to get cornered on the cage and let fate take it's course which is Jordan knocking him into next week. Gonzaga is a talented fighter but he's not the type of fighter that will pull out victory from the jaws of defeat. He's the kind of guy that if he's down two rounds, he'll likely not dig deep and get the win but rather be one of those fighters that will instead try to hold on and go the distance. Jordan has proven he's not like that, Jordan lost the first round in his fight against Mike Russow only to bounce back and win in the second. Finally, Gonzaga is coming off a seventeen second knockout win over Dave Herman and sometimes falls in love with his striking more than he should. We may very well see the dreaded return of K-1 Gonzaga.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez
Nickname:                                        El Nino             |       The Dream
Height:                                                5'9                  |          5'10
Age:                                                     31                  |            31
MMA Record (UFC):                    21-3 (0-1)          |       24-5 (13-5)
Arm Length:                                       71 in.               |          72 in.
Team:                                             Skrap Pack          |    Jackson's MMA
Weight Class:                                        Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Melendez is coming off a loss to Ben Henderson by split decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).

Predictions: Melendez. Melendez is easily one of the best lightweights in the world. Not only has he dominated Strikeforce but he also took then Lightweight Champion Ben Henderson to the limit. Melendez has good striking, good jiu-jitsu, has a wrestled in high school, and a lot of knockout power. Sanchez is a guy who clearly is on the downside of his career. He's only fought once a year since 2011 and he hasn't looked good in his recent fights. His win over Martin Kampmann was a very controversial decision that some considered the robbery of the year. He then lost to Jake Ellenberger in a fight where he only looked good in the third round after Ellenberger got tired. His recent win over Takanori Gomi was another controversial decision. All in all, Sanchez hasn't looked good since his fight with Paulo Thiago three years ago at UFC 121. While Melendez's last two fights were both close split decisions, they were against a fighter who is scheduled to challenge for the UFC Lightweight Championship (Josh Thomson) and a fighter who was the reigning champion at the time (Ben Henderson). Sanchez's close fights were to two Welterweights who are talented but may never make it to elite status or become title contenders (Kampmann and Ellenberger) and a Lightweight whose prime ended five years ago (Gomi).

Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson
Nickname:                                               DC             |     Big Country
Height:                                                    5'10             |         6'0
Age:                                                          34              |          37
MMA Record (UFC):                         12-0 (1-0)      |     19-8 (6-4)
Arm Length:                                          72.5 in.          |        73 in.
Team:                         American Kickboxing Academy |    Country Club
Weight Class:                                        Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cormier is undefeated with twelve wins. His recent win was over Frank Mir by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013). Nelson is coming off a loss to Stipe Miocic by unanimous decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).

Predictions: Cormier. What can I say? Cormier has been awesome since coming into the MMA spotlight. He's an Olympic level wrestler, he has great takedown defense, he has a good chin, and good striking. At the end of the day, Nelson is what he is. He has one of the best chins in MMA, he hits very hard, and has underrated brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, try as he might, he can't put it all together which makes him a classic gatekeeper. Nelson is the guy who if he fights a bad, decent, or a good fighter, he'll usually win and look impressive doing. But when he's put in a fight with a prospect or elite fighter then he usually gets beat up from bell to bell. Cormier is exactly the elite fighter that not only beats Nelson but chews him up and spits him out.

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
Nickname:                                     None               |            Cigano
Height:                                             6'1                 |               6'4
Age:                                                  32                 |                29
MMA Record (UFC):                12-1 (10-1)         |         16-2 (10-1)
Arm Length:                                   77 in.               |              77 in.
Team:                    American Kickboxing Academy |      Team Nogueira
Weight Class:                                      Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Rematch from UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos (November 12, 2011) and UFC 155 (December 29, 2012).

Preview: Velasquez is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Antonio Silva by TKO at UFC 160 (May 25, 2013). Dos Santos is coming off a win over UFC 160 (May 25, 2013).


Predictions: Velasquez. Both have one win over the other but when you analyze both fights then you can't help but think Velasquez has the better chance of winning. In the second fight, Velasquez not only won but also showed his best was more than enough to defeat Dos Santos as picked him apart standing, took him down at will and controlled him which was unheard of given Dos Santos had a reputation for great takedown defense. In the first fight, Dos Santos won quickly but he also won by catching Velasquez with a great punch. The fight didn't really show Dos Santos at his best as it came off more of Dos Santos being in the right place at the right time. While it's possible for Dos Santos to catch Velasquez with another punch, the odds of doing that again to the same opponent aren't that good. In the end, Velasquez proves he can stand with Dos Santos, he's got better wrestling, he can take him down and control him, and has some of the best cardio in the heavyweight division. Having said all of that, the best choice is the guy who decisively won his fight over the guy who landed the best punch of his career and will have a hard time making lightning strike twice.

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