UFC 165 Predictions

UFC 165 Predictions

September 19, 2013

By Ryan Porzl

Nandor Guelmino vs. Daniel Omielanczuk

Nickname:                                     The Hun           |            None

Height:                                               6'3               |              6'1

MMA Record (UFC):                 11-4-1 (0-0)      |     15-3-1, 1NC (0-0)

Age:                                                    37               |               31

Arm Length:                                      76 in.            |         Unknown

Team:                                                 IFG             |        Nastula Team

Weight Class:                                     Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes: Guelmino and Omielanczuk's UFC debut.

Preview: Guelmino is coming off a loss to Josh Barnett by submission at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine (January 12, 2013). Omielanczuk is riding an eleven fight win streak. His recent win was over David Tkeshelashvili at ECSF – MMA Grand Prix of Eastern Europe 2 (December 15, 2012).

Predictions: Guelmino. Guelmino is a black belt in taekwondo and has scored more knockouts which probably means he'll be more comfortable. Guelmino has won the majority of his fights by submission so he will probably be able to hold his own on the ground. More importantly, Guelmino has more experience with world class fighters as he fought guys like Semmy Schilt early in his career and recently Josh Barnett. The fact he's fought these and lost should mean that he has an idea of what he needs to work on and improve. Omielanczuk has a very good record but none are against any impressive names. For all we know, Omielanczuk could be another Ednaldo Oliveira or Nikita Krylov where he comes in with a great record but is quickly exposed as a guy who fought a bunch of nobodies and is no where near ready for prime time. Guelmino has lost most of his fights by knockout but Omielanczuk has only won one time by knockout so he may not be able to expose this potential weakness.

Roland Delorme vs. Alex Caceres

Nickname:                                          Stunning           |    Bruce Leeroy

Height:                                                   5'9                |           5'9

MMA Record (UFC):             9-1, 1NC (3-1, 1NC) | 8-5, 1NC (3-3, 1NC)

Age:                                                        29                |            25

Arm Length:                                          71 in.             |          73 in.

Team:                             Winnipeg Academy of MMA | Young Tigers Foundation

Weight Class:                                        Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Delorme is unbeaten in four fights (3 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a win over Edwin Figueroa by unanimous decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013). Caceres is unbeaten in three fights (2 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a no contest against Kang Kyung-Ho at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013).

Predictions: Delorme. Delorme is great on the ground with black belt in judo, a brown belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu and six of his nine wins coming by way of submission. Caceres has shown in his career that the ground is his weakness. Four of his five losses have come by way of submission and he struggled in his recent fight against Kang Kyung-Ho as he didn't see to have much of an answer to Kang's ground skills. It got to the point where many fans thought Kang won the fight. Caceres has finished only one fight since entering the UFC where he submitted submission magnet Damacio Page who lost six of his seven losses by submission. In other words, Delorme will probably not get finished and will likely have all three rounds to win the fight.

Jesse Ronson vs. Michel Prazeres

Nickname:                             The Body Snatcher  |         Tractor

Height:                                                5'9             |             5'6

MMA Record (UFC):                 13-2 (0-0)        |        16-1 (0-1)

Age:                                                     27              |             32

Arm Length:                                      69 in.           |            66 in.

Team:                           Adrenaline Training Center |     Frankkiko Team

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Ronson is replacing Mark Bocek. Jesse Ronson's UFC debut.

Preview: Ronson is riding an eight fight win streak. His recent win was over Shane Campbell by submission at AFC 19 – Undisputed (July 5, 2013). Prazeres is coming off a loss to Paulo Thiago by unanimous decision at UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold (May 18, 2013).

Predictions: Ronson. Ronson is a replacement but that may not matter. From the look of his win/loss record, you know what your getting with Prazeres as he's a submission type fighter with only one win by knockout. Ronson can strike, he has power, and he's a wrestler so he may be able to block takedowns and keep the fight standing where the fight will likely go his way. If the fight remains standing up then Ronson should either get the knockout win or at least pick Prazeres apart for three rounds.

John Makdessi vs. Renee Forte

Nickname:                                          The Bull           |         None

Height:                                                    5'8               |          5'8

MMA Record (UFC):                       11-2 (4-2)        |       8-2 (1-1)

Age:                                                         28               |           26

Arm Length:                                          68 in.            |          71 in.

Team:                                                 Tristar Gym      |     Team Nogueira

Weight Class:                                           Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Makdessi is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Daron Cruickshank by unanimous decision at UFC 158 (March 16, 2013). Forte is coming off a win over Terry Etim by unanimous decision UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald (February 16, 2013).

Predictions: Makdessi. This is one of those fights that I don't have or can't find the best information on. Still, Makdessi is probably the most well-rounded. He's a good striker with black belts in Taekwondo and Shotokan karate, has good striking defense, and great takedown defense. His arms are smaller than Forte but it might not matter as Makdessi is probably more comfortable standing up and striking. He has never been knocked out and his only submission loss was to Dennis Hallman who, as of writing, has over forty submission wins.

Mitch Gagnon vs. Dustin Kimura

Nickname:                                          None            |     The Diamond

Height:                                                 5'6               |          5'7

MMA Record (UFC):                     9-2 (1-1)         |       10-0 (1-0)

Age:                                                      28               |           23

Arm Length:                                       68 in.             |         71 in.

Team:                                            Team Shredder   |    Gracie Technics

Weight Class:                                    Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Gagnon is coming off a win over Walel Watson by submission at UFC 152 (September 22, 2012). Kimura is undefeated with ten wins. His recent win was over Chico Camus by submission at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013).

Predictions: Kimura. Both Kimura and Gagnon have won most of their fights by submission. However, Gagnon has been submitted in the last year while Kimura has never been submitted. At the same time, Kimura has won two fights last year by TKO so he's like more comfortable striking and is capable of knockouts. Kimura is also more comfortable on the ground as he's won fights with many submissions such as triangle chokes, rear naked chokes, guillotine chokes, armbars, and achilles locks. It seems like it doesn't matter if he's on top, on his back, going for arms, or going for legs, he can get a submission anywhere.

Chris Clements vs. Stephen Thompson

Nickname:                                    The Menace     |         Wonderboy

Height:                                              5'10             |                6'0

MMA Record (UFC):     11-4, 1NC (1-0, 1NC) |           7-1 (2-1)

Age:                                                    37              |                 30

Arm Length:                                  Unknown         |              75 in.

Team:                                         Team Tompkins   |       Pitch Black MMA

Weight Class:                                      Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Clements is unbeaten in six fights (5 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a no contest over Matt Riddle at UFC 149 (July 21, 2012). Thompson is coming off a win over Nah-Shon Burrell by unanimous decision at UFC 160 (May 25, 2013).

Predictions: Thompson. Both guys prefer to strike and that could be disastrous for Clements. Thompson is undefeated in kickboxing with 37 amateur and 20 pro wins. Both have knockout power but Thompson should be more technical and catch Clements with something before Clements can catch him. Thompson also trains out of one of the best gyms in the world in Tristar Gym which should help him become more complete. It's also hard to predict someone from Team Tompkins to win since the gym hasn't fared well following the death of head trainer Shawn Tompkins in 2011.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Wilson Reis

Nickname:                           The Pride of El Salvador |          None

Height:                                                  5'6                |             5'3

MMA Record (UFC):                    25-10 (4-2)         |      16-4 (0-0)

Age:                                                       31                 |             28

Arm Length:                                     Unknown           |        Unknown

Team:                                              Tristar Gym          |       BJJ United

Weight Class:                                        Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Reis' UFC debut. Reis was scheduled to face Hugo Viena. Menjivar was scheduled to face Norifumi Yamamoto.

Preview: Menjivar is coming off a loss to Urijah Faber by submission at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013).

Predictions: Reis. Menjivar is a top 15 fighter but Reis should be considered a threat. He's a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has won many grappling tournaments. Despite never having knocked out a fighter before, Menjivar has been rocked many times in his career so Reis could hit him with something and go for a submission while he's dazed. Menjivar has won most of fights by submission but Reis has never been submitted yet and can possibly prevent Menjivar form getting something.

Mike Ricci vs. Myles Jury

Nickname:                                          The Martian  |      The Fury

Height:                                                    6'1            |         5'11

MMA Record (UFC):                         8-3 (1-1)     |     12-0 (3-0)

Age:                                                         27            |           24

Arm Length:                                           76 in.         |         73 in.

Team:                                                   Tristar Gym  |   Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                         Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Ricci is coming off a win over Colin Fletcher by unanimous decision at UFC 158 (March 16, 2013). Jury is undefeated at twelve wins. His recent win was over Ramsey Nijem by KO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).

Predictions: Ricci. This will likely be the hardest fight in Jury's career. Ricci is a heavy handed fighter with half his wins by knockout (though he hasn't won a fight by (T)KO in two years.) His arms are three inches longer and if he knows how to use it then Jury can have a hard time standing up. Jury has won most of his fights by submission but Ricci has never been submitted in his career.

Pat Healy vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Nickname:                                  Bam Bam   |          The Eagle

Height:                                            5'11       |              5'10

MMA Record (UFC): 29-16, 1NC (0-0, 1NC) |    20-0 (4-0)

Age:                                                   30         |              24

Arm Length:                                    72 in.       |            70 in.

Team:                                           Sports Lab  |   Red Fury Fight Team

Weight Class:                                   Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Healy is unbeaten in seven fight (6 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a no contest against Jim Miller at UFC 159 (April 27, 2013). Nurmagomedov is undefeated with 20 wins. His recent win was over Abel Trujillo by unanimous decision at UFC 160 (May 25, 2013).

Predictions: Nurmagomedov. Healy is a very good fighter and has shown he can pull off upsets like he did against Jim Miller. That being said, Nurmagomedov is a beast. He's a master of sambo and a black belt in judo. He's also a champion in hand-to-hand combat. He's won an equal amount of fights by knockouts and submission so he does have power. His ground skills are so good that he recently earned the record for most takedowns in UFC history. This is the toughest challenge in Nurmagomedov's career but he has the tools and skills to be comfortable anywhere the fight goes and should pull out the win.

Costa Philippou vs. Francis Carmont

Nickname:                                   Cyprus Slugger    |         Limitless

Height:                                                 5'11             |            6'3

MMA Record (UFC):               12-2, 1NC (5-1)   |        21-7 (5-0)

Age:                                                       33              |              31

Arm Length:                                        73 in.            |            78 in.

Team:                                 Serra-Longo Fight Team |       Tristar Gym

Weight Class:                                   Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Philippou is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Tim Boetsch by TKO at UFC 155 (December 29, 2012). Carmont is riding a ten fight win streak. His recent win was over Lorenz Larkin by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013).

Predictions: Philippou. Honestly, Carmont has looked horrible to me in his recent appearances, he shouldn't have gotten the win over Tom Lawlor and many thought he shouldn't have gotten the win over Lorenz Larkin. Philippou is a heavy handed guy, he has a purple belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, and has never been finished. It can also be argued he's looked better against better opponents when he beat Riki Fukuda and Tim Boetsch while Carmont struggled with guys like Lawlor and Larkin.

Brendan Schaub vs. Matt Mitrone

Nickname:                                        The Hybrid       |       Meathead

Height:                                                   6'4               |           6'3

MMA Record (UFC):                        9-3 (5-3)        |        6-2 (6-2)

Age:                                                        30                |            35

Arm Length:                                          78 in.            |           82 in.

Team:                                     Grudge Training Center |      Blackzilians

Weight Class:                                         Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Schaub is coming off a win over Lavar Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC 157 (February 23, 2013). Mitrone is coming off a win over Phil De Fries by KO at UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs. Latifi (April 6, 2013).

Predictions: Mitrone. Schaub has nothing here as every fan and fighter knows Schaub's weakness and it's one that you don't want in fighting especially as a heavyweight. Both are heavy handed fighters but Schaub has a bad chin and it won't take much for Mitrone to knock Schaub out. Mitrone has been knocked out only once and that was against Roy Nelson who has a far better chin and able to take two to give one. Schaub only won his recent fight against Lavar Johnson because Johnson has pathetic ground skills. Mitrone isn't known for grappling but he knows enough that will prevent Schaub from getting the fight to the ground and laying on him for three rounds.

Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland

Nickname:                                          Barao          |        None

Height:                                                  5'7            |          5'7

MMA Record (UFC):                30-1, 1NC (7-0) |     20-8-1 (2-2)

Age:                                                       26             |           29

Arm Length:                                         70 in.          |         69 in.

Team:                                               Nova Uniao     |  Duneland Vale Tudo

Weight Class:                                      Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Interm Bantamweight Championship

Preview: Barao is riding a 31 fight unbeaten streak (30 wins, 1 no contest). His recent win was over Michael McDonald at UFC on Fuel TV: Barao vs. McDonald (February 16, 2013. Wineland is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Brad Pickett by split decision at UFC 155 (December 29, 2013).

Predictions: Barao. Anyway Barao wants it, he gets it. Barao is a phenomenal fighter with knockout power, submission skills, and incredible speed. Wineland is the 2013 Thales Leites in that he earned his title shot by being in the right place at the right time. Sure he won two fights in a row but he barely got by Brad Pickett and he also benefited from Dominick Cruz being injured and Urijah Faber & Michael McDonald having lost to Barao already. There's nothing that Wineland has that's better than Barao.

Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Nickname:                                     Bones      |           The Mauler

Height:                                            6'4          |                6'5

MMA Record (UFC):               18-1 (12-1) |             15-1 (7-1)

Age:                                                  26         |                 26

Arm Length:                                   84.5 in.    |               76.5 in.

Team:                                   Jackson's MMA |          Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Preview: Jones is riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over Chael Sonnen by TKO at UFC 159 (April 27, 2013). Gustafsson is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Mauricio Rua by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz (December 8, 2012).

Predictions: Jones. To beat a guy like Jones, you have to be great at something but Gustafsson isn't great at anything. He's a good striker, has a good chin, and decent with submissions but nothing great. Jones' has a extremely long arms but also knows how to use them effectively. Like most of Jones' opponents, Gustafsson will have hard time getting past that reach. He's also the better wrestler and will likely be able to take it to the ground whenever he wants and either drill him with elbows or catch him in a submission. I also think when Jones loses, it's not only going to be against a fighter who has something great but Jones has to come in not concentrating or coming off a long injury layoff. He reminds me of a Fedor Emelianenko or Anderson Silva where when he loses he'll either come in reckless like Fedor or arrogant and not take his opponent seriously like Silva.