A Look at the 2020 All Japan Champion Carnival and the Participants

 A Look at the 2020 All Japan Champion Carnival and the Participants
September 9, 2020 
By Ryan Porzl

Well, this is certainly interesting. The Champion's Carnival is coming but the month of April came and went. These last few months have been interesting as the pandemic has delayed the Carnival until September and after originally planning a big tournament of 18, they'll have to settle for 10. Some names were planned but won't be in it but some names that weren't planned will be. Nevertheless, this is the 40th Carnival, it still features great wrestlers, and history will be made as this is the first time a Champion Carnival tournament or tour will be taking place in the fall after nearly 50 years of being a spring event. We'll take a look at the participants and their chances of winning. 

Block A

Suwama

Number of Champion Carnivals: 14 (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019)

Pluses: Current Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion, Former Champion Carnival winner, top star, only defended the championship twice so there's plenty of fresh challengers.

Minuses: Just won the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship in March

Thoughts: Back in March, right before the Champion Carnival was delayed, Suwama became a record setting seven time Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion. In some cases, I would say Suwama wouldn't have much of a chance since tournaments like this usually build a new challenger. However, with the coronavirus stopping shows during the spring, All Japan not running full tours, and Suwama also being a World Tag Team Champion, he hasn't defended the championship as much as you think. Because of this, there's plenty of challengers still waiting in the wings so Suwama winning isn't out of the question. Another thing to consider is that Suwama is getting older and with his recent huge push as both Triple Crown Champion and World Tag Team Champion, he seems to be on his last big run and since he hasn't won the Carnival since 2008, he might get it one more time. Obviously, worst case scenario, Suwama will at least place high, if not, runner up.

Chances of Winning: Good possibility

Zeus

Number of Champion Carnivals: 6 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Champion, former Champion Carnival runner up, Zeus vs. Suwama would be fresh, it would raise the stock of Purple Haze

Minuses: Not much aside from the fact he has the All Asia Tag Team Championship which All Japan may think is enough

Thoughts: I thought Zeus was one of the favorites last year and that hasn't changed much this year. I did have some doubts when Miyahara was champion but Suwama regaining the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship makes things interesting. Originally, I thought a Zeus/Miyahara match wasn't fresh and was the one negative Zeus had against him but a Zeus/Suwama match is more fresher and an interesting match so it could happen. Zeus is also a former Triple Crown Champion and Champion Carnival runner up so that has to be taken into consideration. Another factor is Zeus is a member of the newly formed Purple Haze group and just recently won their first title with Zeus and Izanagi winning the All Asia Tag Team Championships. A Champion Carnival win could still elevate the group and give it some more credibility regardless if Zeus wins the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship or not.

Chances of Winning: Really good if not a possible favorite

Jake Lee

Number of Champion Carnivals: 3 (2016, 2017, and 2019)

Pluses: Former Champion Carnival runner up, Former Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship challenger, could win as a "third time's the charm"

Minuses: Challenged for the title twice since October

Thoughts: Lee is in an interesting situation. Given he's recently challenged for the Triple Crown twice, I would automatically say he has no chance. However, I do wonder if that was All Japan's plan as they could go for the "third time's the charm" bit. Regardless, Lee should do great in this tournament. Not to mention, the door is back open with Suwama regaining the Triple Crown as that would be a fresh and great match. I think it depends on what the plans are for Lee in the near future. If All Japan plan to give him the Triple Crown soon, he'll probably win here but if they don't then he won't since I doubt All Japan will have Lee lose a third time this year even if he wins the Carnival. Worst case scenario, he'll place in the upper half, if not, just missing the finals.

Chances of Winning: Really good and a possible favorite depending on what All Japan is planning

Kuma Arashi

Number of Champion Carnivals: 0

Pluses: Fresh challenger as well as the fresher challenger of the Enfants Terribles stable

Minuses: Not a full time wrestler for All Japan, hasn't challenged for the Triple Crown yet, and not a main event wrestler

Thoughts: Arashi is part of the Enfants Terribles stable which arrived in All Japan early this year following the closing of Wrestle-1. Arashi is a very good prospect but he has no chance of winning this. Outside of being a fresh challenger, Arashi has nothing going for him. He wasn't a top star in Wrestle-1 and never held their Wrestle-1 Championship and even if he did, Wrestle-1 was not a big promotion and he wasn't a big star so it's highly doubtful he would win the Carnival on his first shot. Given the talent involved in the bracket, I can see Arashi placing last or second to last as he's the least established and at 29 years old and new, All Japan have plenty of time to rebuild him afterwards. Worst case scenario, I can see Arashi getting a good or even one great win so it's not a total loss for him. Who knows? Maybe Suwama wins the Carnival and Arashi is the only one to beat him along the way to book a Suwama/Arashi match down the road.

Chances of Winning: No Chance

Jiro "Ikeman" Kuroshio

Number of Champion Carnivals: 0

Pluses: Fresh challenger

Minuses: Not a full time wrestler for All Japan and hasn't challenged for the Triple Crown yet

Thoughts: Kuroshio has the same pluses and minuses that Kuma Arashi has. He is a fresh challenger for Suwama and the match would be good but that's where the good ends. The problem is that Kuroshio is best known for his run in Wrestle-1 which, once again, wasn't a big promotion and, once again, Kuroshio never made it to the Wrestle-1 Championship so he wasn't the top star there so it's highly doubtful he'll win the Carnival in his first shot and while he is a former GAORA TV Champion, he never challenged for the Triple Crown Championship much less won it. It probably doesn't help All Japan booked him and Miyahara to fail to win the World Tag Team Championship back in August against Suwama and Ishikawa with Kuroshio taking the pin from Suwama. I feel if All Japan had big plans for him, they probably would've given him the belts and enter the tournament on a high note. Like Arashi, I feel Kuroshio will also place either at the bottom or second to last as he too is young at 27 and this is his first Carnival so if he continues to stick around, All Japan could rebuild him. Like Arashi, I feel he'll get a good win, maybe against Suwama to set something up and avenge his tag title loss.

Chances of Winning: No Chance

Block B

Kento Miyahara

Number of Champion Carnivals: 6 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019)

Pluses: He's the current ace of All Japan, and current All Japan wrestler 

Minuses: Won last year, just lost the Triple Crown, and him vs. Suwama is not a fresh match.

Thoughts: Miyahara is entering the Carnival having not only just lost the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship to Suwama but the loss deprived him of the record for most successful title defenses which I thought he would've achieved. Despite the loss, Miyahara is still the ace of All Japan which means he's someone to consider as a possible winner and he won last year. It's definitely possible Miyahara could win the Carnival as a bounce back from his title loss. However, Miyahara has a lot going against him as a rematch with Suwama would be too soon and it's not a fresh match so I don't think All Japan will go back to it. Miyahara is also coming off a 519 day reign and is a four time champion so he needs a break from the title and going back to him so soon would make things stale. Perhaps another thing to consider if Miyahara is also in somewhat of a slump angle right now as he's gotten three title shots (one All Asia Tag Team Championship and two World Tag Team Championship) since he dropped the Triple Crown but lost each. Nevertheless, I was wrong about Miyahara last year so who knows? Maybe he gets two in a row. I still think he does very well and places high.

Chances of Winning: Possible but not sure if it's great

Shuji Ishikawa

Number of Champion Carnivals: 3 (2017, 2018, and 2019)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Champion and former Champion Carnival winner

Minuses: Mostly focused on tag teams, just challenged and lost to Suwama

Thoughts: When Miyahara was champion, I didn't think he would have much of a chance especially with he and Suwama as tag team champions but that changed when Suwama became Triple Crown Champion. However, since that time, All Japan has already done the Suwama/Ishikawa match back in July so I can't see Ishikawa winning this and getting another title shot against the same champion so soon. Timing is everything and if Ishikawa didn't get that shot, I consider him having a great chance, if not, a favorite but having lost recently, there's no way All Japan is doing that match so soon. Ishikawa should either be in the middle or bottom two in the tournament as winning isn't an option.

Chances of Winning: No Chance

Yuma Aoyagi

Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2019)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Title challenger, fresh challenger, Full time All Japan wrestler

Minuses: Just challenged for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship in February

Thoughts: Aoyagi has recently taken a big step in his career when he received his first title shot at the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship. So Aoyagi's stock has gone up in recent months compared to a year ago but that's the only good. While Aoyagi has made a leap, he's still only 24 years old and not hit his prime yet so All Japan is not going to pull the trigger on Aoyagi this soon. On top of that, Aoyagi just challenged for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship back in February and even with Suwama becoming the new champion, I don't think All Japan will book Aoyagi another shot so quickly. If anything, I see Aoyagi placing on the bottom half given the participants and that All Japan could see him as someone who can take it and has plenty of time to be rebuilt. However, he should get a good win somewhere during the Carnival.

Chances of Winning: No Chance

Shotaro Ashino

Number of Champion Carnivals: 0

Pluses: Former Wrestle-1 main eventer and 2 time champion

Minuses: Just challenged Suwama for the Triple Crown in June

Thoughts: Like Kuma Arashi, Shotaro Ashino is the leader of the Enfants Terribles stable who came to All Japan following the fall of Wrestle-1. However, Ashino is in the same predicament as Ishikawa. A few months ago, I would've considered Ashino a possible favorite. While Wrestle-1 was never a big promotion, he was a top star there and a former 2 time Wrestle-1 Champion so he is capable of being a fresh main eventer for All Japan. While he still has a great future for All Japan, the problem is he just got a title shot back in June and lost to Suwama. Like Ishikawa, it's way too soon for a rematch which puts Ashino from a potential favorite to no chance of winning. Also, for him to win, that would mean he would have to win the championship in his next title shot and it's probably too soon for that to happen. Also, while Ashino was a top star for Wrestle-1, I don't think he's a big enough name where he would be booked to win the Carnival in his first try. Still, I do think Ashino will do well with the worst case scenario being him in the middle.

Chances of Winning: No Chance

Yoshitatsu

Number of Champion Carnivals: 2 (2018 and 2019)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Title challenger, current TV Champion, and full time All Japan wrestler

Minuses: Not a main eventer

Thoughts: Yoshitatsu is in an interesting position as he's signed with All Japan earlier this year and is on the cusp of being the longest reigning GAORA TV Champion so a lot has happened to him since the last Carnival. Not to mention he's a former World Tag Team Champion and challenged for the Triple Crown twice so far in his career. However, despite all that, Yoshitatsu is still, at best, an upper midcarder and not a main eventer. While he's improved a lot since his New Japan days, he's still not at that point where he's a main eventer and likely will never get there so I just can't see him ever winning the Carnival. Perhaps another issue is that while Yoshitatsu is a champion and you would think they would want to protect a champion, the truth is the GAORA TV Championship is hardly the level of New Japan's IWGP Intercontinental Championship as he's mostly defended against outside wrestlers in matches that didn't seem important and you never got the impression he was in danger of losing the title. All in all, I think Yoshitatsu, at best, will place third but I wouldn't be surprised if he's near or at the bottom with a good win to balance it out.

Chances of Winning: No Chance