A Look at the 2020 NOAH N-1 Victory Tournament and the Participants

 A Look at the 2020 NOAH N-1 Victory Tournament and the Participants
September 16, 2020 
By Ryan Porzl

With fall approaching, it means one thing for Pro Wrestling NOAH and that is it's N-1 Victory time again which kicks off September 18th. The N-1 Victory (a replacement of the previous Global League) is NOAH's round robin tournament for heavyweights with the winner, barring it be champion Go Shiozaki, will get a title shot in the future. As usual, I will look at each participant and their chances of winning.

Block A

Go Shiozaki
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 6 (2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: Top star in NOAH and current GHC Heavyweight Champion
Minuses: Needs fresh challengers

Thoughts: Shiozaki is in an interesting position as he's a long term champion, has made four successful title defenses, and in his fourth reign as champion, you would think he wouldn't have a lot of options and thus, he should have no chance of winning since NOAH could use the N-1 to build a new challenger but not quite. Shiozaki can realistically win the N-1 as NOAH has given him plenty on his plate for the foreseeable future. His former partner Katsuhiko Nakajima recently betrayed him so there's a match. Keiji "The Great Muta" Mutoh has been lobbying for a title shot and could get it soon. His recent title defense against Kenoh went to a 60 minute draw so there's unfinished business there. Still, there's some guys in this tournament that realistically could win it as Nakajima is a big favorite as NOAH could give it to him to build him up for a title shot and Kaito Kiyomiya is not only a former champion and Global League winner, he lost the title to Shiozaki in January and a win would set up a rematch. Despite having a lot on his plate, I'm still not convinced Shiozaki is a favorite and will win but I do believe it could happen and wouldn't be surprised. Regardless, if Shiozaki doesn't win, I could see him placing high or runner up, maybe even losing to Nakajima in the finals.

Chances of Winning: Very possible

Manabu Soya
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 0
Pluses: Fresh Challenger, former Wrestle-1 Champion
Minuses: Kenoh and Katsuhiko Nakajima are bigger stars in Kongoh

Thoughts: Soya is a newcomer to NOAH but not wrestling as he is a long time vet having had success in All Japan Pro Wrestling as a tag team wrestler before going to Wrestle-1 where he held the Wrestle-1 Championship. Like a lot of wrestlers, Soya has found a new home after the end of Wrestle-1 in April, in his case, NOAH. With all that said, Soya has no chance of winning this year outside the fact he's a fresh challenger but NOAH still have plenty of other options. Soya is a former Wrestle-1 Champion but Wrestle-1 wasn't a huge promotion and Soya is not a big star so I seriously doubt he wins on his first attempt. Not to mention, he's a member of Kongoh but Kenoh and new member Katsuhiko Nakajima are not only higher on the totem pole but have more interesting storylines against Shiozaki so if anyone from Kongoh is winning, it won't be Soya. Given some of the talent in this tournament, I can see Soya in the middle or lower part of the bracket.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Kaito Kiyomiya
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 2 (2016, 2018) 
Pluses: Former GHC Heavyweight Champion, this could lead to him avenging his title loss to Shiozaki, NOAH regular, and former Global League winner
Minuses: Not the freshest challenger

Thoughts: Kiyomiya has a lot going for him. He's a former heavyweight champion and Global League winner but also has history with Shiozaki as his year plus reign as champion ended back in January to Shiozaki. It's possible that with NOAH booking a big show in November that they'll want a big match and Kiyomiya rematching Shiozaki would be that. The only thing that hurts Kiyomiya is we've seen this match back in January and Shiozaki has plenty of unfinished business with some like Kenoh and some fresh options including former partner Katsuhiko Nakajima. Perhaps another thing that hurts him is he's coming off a loss to Mutoh and with Mutoh lobbying for a GHC Title match, I feel NOAH may do what New Japan did in 2008 by giving Mutoh the title and then having him drop it to Kiyomiya like how Mutoh dropped the IWGP Title to Hiroshi Tanahashi in 2009. I don't know how he'll get back there but Kiyomiya will get back to title contention sooner or later and it's possible he may avenge his loss to Shiozaki but we'll see. I see Kiyomiya potentially going all the way but if he doesn't, he should place high.

Chances of Winning: One of the favorites

Masaaki Mochizuki
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 1 (2019)
Pluses: Fresh challenger and a former GHC Tag Team Champion
Minuses: Not a regular in NOAH, is 50 years old.

Thoughts: After popping up over the last year, Mochizuki has been making more frequent appearances in NOAH as part of the "M" Alliance with Mutoh, Marufuji, Yuko Miyamoto, and Masakatsu Funaki and is a Dragon Gate regular being a former three time Open the Dream Gate Champion (Dragon Gate's top title). He's also no stranger to NOAH gold as he won the GHC Tag Team Championship with Marufuji. He's also a fresh challenger which is needed for a four time champion with four successful title defenses. With all that said, Mochizuki has things going against him. While a top star in Dragon Gate, I don't know if he's a big enough star to give him this tournament especially over talent like Shiozaki, Kenoh, Kiyomiya, and Nakajima to name some. I could see him getting a title shot down the road but I feel whoever wins this tournament will get the title shot at the November 22nd Yokohama Budokan show and I don't think Mochizuki is the guy they want in that position. Another possible problem is he is 50 years old so I don't think NOAH is going to give their tournament to an outsider who is up there in age and mileage and if they do, they'll give it to native wrestler Takashi Sugiura. I can see Mochizuki placing in the middle or bottom.

Chances of Winning: Slim

Masa Kitamiya
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 5 (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: Fresh challenger, NOAH regular
Minuses: Not a main eventer and one of the lowest participant in the Kongoh totem pole

Thoughts: Kitamiya is in an interesting position as he's a former tag team champion and for a few years looked like he was moving up the ladder reaching the finals of the 2016 Global League, had a strong showing in the 2017 tournament, and got two title shots challenging Sugiura and then Kiyomiya for the GHC Heavyweight Championship in 2018 and 2019. However, aside from the recent title shots, it feels like Kitamiya has fallen down the ladder in recent years as his recent Global League/N-1 tournaments have been mediocre. Even joining Kenoh's Kongoh stable hasn't done too much for him right now outside of a potential Tag Team Championship shot coming soon. Kitamiya has a lot of potential but is one of those guys who seemed to get lost in the shuffle especially with the growth of the Kongoh stable as well as many new names coming into NOAH this year. Maybe he'll get a good win but given his current status and still being young at 32 along with the names in this block, I could see him at the bottom.

Chances of Winning: No Chance

Kazushi Sakuraba
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger, is a big name being an MMA legend
Minuses: Way past his prime and has tons of mileage on his body from MMA and wrestling

Thoughts: Honestly, given his age and mileage, I'm shocked Sakuraba is in this. The MMA legend has one big advantage as he is a big name in Japan due to his successful MMA career and status as "The Gracie Hunter". No doubt, despite his star power not being as big as it was 20 years ago, Sakuraba challenging for the GHC Heavyweight Championship should do well. That being said, I doubt Sakuraba wins this as he's way past his athletic prime and 51 years old. If they're going to give the tournament to an aging name then it probably be Sakuraba's partner Sugiura who is a year younger, well established in NOAH, and doesn't have as much mileage on his body. Sakuraba should have his moments in the tournament especially since he is a GHC Tag Team Champion and NOAH would probably want to protect one of their champions. He'll probably be in the middle or lower part of the bracket but will get a good win somewhere to balance it out.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Block B

Kenoh
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 3 (2017, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: Former GHC Heavyweight Champion, former N-1 Victory and Global League winner, recently went to a draw with champion Go Shiozaki
Minuses: Is a stale pick and just challenged for the heavyweight championship

Thoughts: Kenoh is one of those guys who has many reasons to think he's going to win. He's a former champion, he won the 2017 Global League and last year's N-1 Victory. He's also leader of what is pretty much the biggest stable in NOAH right now in Kongoh. Best of all, he has unfinished business with Shiozaki as the two recently wrestled in a title for title match (Kenoh is the GHC National Champion) and the match went to a draw so that leaves open the possibility of a rematch. Having said all that, Kenoh has things against him. As mentioned, he won the 2017 Global League and last years N-1 so I could see NOAH wanting to book a fresh choice. While he also has unfinished business with Shiozaki, we just saw that match and even with a draw, it may be too soon to book the match again. Kenoh is also the GHC National Champion so he already holds gold and NOAH may want him to focus on that right now. Still, with all of this, Kenoh has a decent chance and wouldn't be a shocking pick but I think there are others who have better chances.

Chances of Winning: Decent chance

Katsuhiko Nakajima
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 8 (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: Former GHC Heavyweight Champion, a match between former AXIZ would be interesting, and just betrayed Shiozaki
Minuses: Not much

Thoughts: From the get go, Nakajima was someone you had to consider having a great chance as he is a former GHC Heavyweight Champion and a partner of Shiozaki so there would be plenty of interest in a match between them. Then on August 30th, after he and Shiozaki failed to win the GHC Tag Team Championship, Nakajima turned on Shiozaki and joined Kongoh. So now, we not only have Nakajima as a main eventer with history with Shiozaki but he flat out attacked him starting a rivalry. As mentioned, Nakajima was someone you had to consider having a great chance but this betrayal puts him over the top as a favorite. As for minuses, there are none. Nakajima is a fresh opponent, a main eventer, a decorated wrestler in NOAH, already was a partner of Shiozaki, and now is in a rivalry. What more could you ask for? While anything is possible especially with the likes of Kiyomiya also being a favorite and Kenoh has unfinished business, Nakajima is probably my choice to win and I wouldn't be surprised if he beats Shiozaki in the finals.

Chances of Winning: One of, if not, the favorite

Takashi Sugiura
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 9 (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: Former GHC Heavyweight Champion, former Global League winner, a top star
Minuses: Stale pick, is 50 years old

Thoughts: Sugiura has a lot going for him as he too is a top star, a record tying four time GHC Heavyweight Champion (ties with Shiozaki), and a former Global League winner so you would think he would be a possible favorite or have a great chance. However, I feel his chances aren't great. One is that he is a stale pick having held the GHC Championship four times and him vs. Shiozaki isn't the freshest match by any means. Sugiura also just turned 50 years old and while he can still go and has less mileage then most would at that age since he turned pro late at 30, I have to think NOAH will start to move him down the cards eventually. Even though Sugiura beat Shiozaki to win the Tag Team Championship, it just feels like he's doing his own thing right now. I suppose you can't count Sugiura out and he has things going for him but I'm just don't like his chances this year. Especially with guys like Nakajima, Kenoh, and Kiyomiya having better chances. That said, he should still do well and place high.

Chances of Winning: Slim

Yoshiki Inamura
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger, up and comer
Minuses: Still a young lion, not reached his prime yet, and the lowest on the Kongoh totem pole

Thoughts: Inamura probably has the least chance of winning this. His upsides are he would be a fresh challenger but so would others who are higher up the cards and he's an up and comer but that's where the good ends. Inamura has potential to be a future winner, no doubt but he's still in the young lion phase and not in his prime yet. This is also his first N-1 and he's nowhere near a big enough name to win on his first chance. Inamura is also the lowest on the Kongoh totem pole and there's bigger choices from that stable alone. However, despite all that and despite likely placing last, there is a silver lining for him in this tournament. Inamura is currently in a story where he's seeking the first big win of his career and keeps getting closer while the fans want to see it happen but it hasn't yet. I feel like the N-1 will see him finally get that elusive big win and take that next step in his career. Because of that and where he's at, winning the tournament isn't an option but being able to compete against big names and probably get that win will serve it's purpose and make Inamura's participation worth it and grow. As mentioned, he'll likely place last but I have a feeling he'll get a great moment in this tournament and come out of it a winner in a different way.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Shuhei Taniguchi
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 9 (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: Fresh challenger, former partner of Shiozaki
Minuses: Has little momentum right now and has had an uneventful 2020

Thoughts: Taniguchi is a weird kind of cat in NOAH as he seems like someone the company wants to get behind but his career over the years has been stop and go or hot and cold as it looks like he's getting a good push and maybe moving up the ladder only to be left in the cold and we're currently seeing that right now. 2019 was a pretty good year for Taniguchi as he captured a fifth GHC Tag Team Championship, dropped the Maybach gimmick before reverting back to himself, he scored a great win over Marufuji in a Misawa Memorial match, and did very well in last years N-1 placing second in his block. Unfortunately, just as he left 2019 pretty good, 2020 has seen him go completely ice cold. For one, his run in the Global Tag League was a disaster as I thought he and Kiyomiya were favorites and they instead placed last. He hasn't competed for any championships this year. Worst of all, with all the new talent coming in and stables forming, he feels lost in the shuffle as if NOAH just doesn't know what to do with him. I would be completely shocked if Taniguchi won this. I see him placing very low, maybe second to last behind Inamura.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Naomichi Marufuji
Number of N-1 Victory/Global Leagues: 9 (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019)
Pluses: 3 time GHC Heavyweight Champion, former Global League winner, and one of NOAH's top wrestlers
Minuses: Just challenged for the GHC Heavyweight Championship and came up short

Thoughts: Marufuji is kind of in the same boat as Sugiura as he's a multiple time GHC Heavyweight Champion, former Global League winner, and a top star so you would think he's got a great opportunity. However, timing is against Marufuji as he just challenged for the GHC Heavyweight Championship back on August 5th so it's way too soon for him to get another title shot. On top of that, I do wonder where Marufuji stands at this point in his career. Though he isn't the oldest at 41, he does have 22 years of wear and tear and has recently battled injuries. He also placed last in his block last year with no points so I do wonder if Marufuji is beginning to take a step back in his career and perhaps ease himself out of the main event at least full time. Marufuji is someone who I can't tell where he lands on the block as he could place high but also low. One thing's for certain, he's not winning.

Chances of Winning: No chance