UFC 178 Predictions

                                 

UFC 178 Predictions

September 26, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Manvel Gamburyan vs. Cody Gibson

Nickname:                                      The Anvil              |    The Renegade

Height:                                                 5'5                     |          5'10

Age:                                                      33                      |           27

MMA Record (UFC):              13-8, 1NC (4-5, 1NC) |      12-4 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                      67 in.                  |          71 in.

Team:                                           Team Hayastan        |   Bas Rutten's Elite MMA

Weight Class:                                   Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Gamburyan is winless in two fights (one loss, one no contest). His recent loss was to Nik Lentz by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014). Gibson is coming off a win over Johnny Bedford by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Stephens (June 28, 2014).

Prediction: Gibson. I'm not familiar with Gibson or know much about him or Gamburyan. However, I still take him as he has a big size and reach advantage. Gamburyan also looks like he's pass his prime as he hasn't shown the same success he had in the WEC years ago.

Jon Tuck vs. Kevin Lee

Nickname:                                      Super Saiyan   |   The Motown Phenom

Height:                                                     5'10         |         5'9

Age:                                                           30          |          22

MMA Record (UFC):                         8-1 (2-1)     |      8-1 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                           73 in.       |       75.5 in.

Team:                                                  MMA Lab   |    Triumph MMA

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Tuck is coming off a win over Jake Lindsey by submission at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Khabilov (June 7, 2014). Lee is coming off a win over Jesse Ronson by split decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 19 Finale (July 6, 2014).

Prediction: Tuck. Tuck is a very well-rounded fighter with three wins by way of knockouts and four wins by submission. He has shown to have knockout power by scoring two knockout wins in the first round. He's very good at taking an opponents back as he's won three fights by rear naked choke. Tuck is also a decorated grappler as he won medals in ADCC grappling competitions. Stats wise, Tuck is better at every category except takedown defense. Lee is mostly a submission grappler but given Tuck's accomplishments, it will be difficult to submit him. He's never won a fight by knockout so Tuck shouldn't have to worry too much if the fight stays standing.

John Howard vs. Brian Ebersole

Nickname:                                      Doomsday      |      Bad Boy

Height:                                                5'7              |          6'0

Age:                                                      31              |          33

MMA Record (UFC):                    22-9 (6-4)      |    50-16-1, 1NC (4-2)

Arm Length:                                     72 in.           |         73 in.

Team:                                           Wai Kru MMA |   Tiger Muay Thai

Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Howard is coming off a loss to Ryan LaFlare by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs. Nelson (April 11, 2014). Ebersole is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Rick Story by unanimous decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2014).

Prediction: Howard. One big reason is if you look at Ebersole, you can't help but feel he's on the downswing of his career. He's fought in 68 fights, he's competed for fourteen years, and he's not very active as he's only fought one fight in last two years. To makes matters worse, that one fight which was against Rick Story was ten months ago and previous fight against James Head was sixteen months before that. Ebersole is the more well-rounded but he hasn't finished an opponent in years. While Howard isn't the best grappler in MMA, Ebersole's takedown accuracy isn't good so he might not have to worry about being outgrappled.

Patrick Cote vs. Stephen Thompson

Nickname:                                 The Predator   |        Wonderboy

Height:                                             5'11           |             6'0

Age:                                                   34            |              31

MMA Record (UFC):                 20-8 (7-8)     |          9-1 (4-1)

Arm Length:                                   75 in.         |            75 in.

Team:                                         BTT Canada   |        Tristar Gym

Weight Class:                                Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cote is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Kyle Noke by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Kennedy (April 16, 2014). Thompson is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Robert Whittaker by TKO at UFC 170 (February 22, 2014).

Prediction: Thompson. Cote has experienced a resurgence at welterweight but Thompson is a very good fighter. He's better than Cote in striking and takedown accuracy as well as striking and takedown defense. Thompson also has good conditioning so he won't get tired during this fight. If the fight remains standing than Thompson should have the advantage. He has black belts in kempo karate and kickboxing, is undefeated in kickboxing, and has won many honors & titles. Thompson has also never been finished to date in his career. In fact, his only loss is a unanimous decision to Matt Brown. It should also be pointed out that this was during Brown's resurgence and ultimately went on a seven fight win streak. Though Thompson lost the fight, he became the only fighter out of the seven fighters Brown beat that survived. Every other opponent was knocked out. He also trains at Tristar so he should be prepared for this fight. Cote has never been knocked out in his career as his only TKO loss was to Anderson Silva due to injury but that shouldn't stop Thompson. In his last fight, Thompson became the first fighter to TKO Robert Whittaker showing that he's capable of handing a fighter their first knockout loss.

Jorge Masvidal vs. James Krause

Nickname:                                      Gamebred         |    The James Krause

Height:                                               5'11                |           6'2

Age:                                                     29                  |           28

MMA Record (UFC):                     27-8 (4-1)        |       21-5 (2-1)

Arm Length:                                     74 in.              |         75 in.

Team:                                     American Top Team |   Grindhouse MMA

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Masvidal is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Daron Cruickshank by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX 12 (July 26, 2013). Krause is coming off a win over Jamie Varner by TKO at UFC 173 (May 24, 2014).

Prediction: Masvidal. Masvidal seems like the better fighter with backgrounds in submission grappling. He's also taken part in boxing and kickboxing. While he never beat anyone significant, it's something to consider. Krause is mostly a grappler but Masvidal has very good takedown defense so it will be hard for Krause to get this fight to the ground. In fact, Masvidal is better with striking accuracy, striking defense, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense. Masvidal has also shown his grappling skills by submitting the then undefeated ultimate fighter winner Michael Chiesa who has won most of his fights by submission. Masvidal has been dropped in his fights but he's able to get back into the fight.

Dominick Cruz vs. Takeya Mizugaki

Nickname:                                 The Dominator   |            None

Height:                                               5'8               |             5'7

Age:                                                    29                |             30

MMA Record (UFC):                  19-1 (2-0)        |      20-7-2 (7-2)

Arm Length:                                    68 in.            |          69.5 in.

Team:                                         Alliance MMA   |       Hakkei Gym

Weight Class:                                 Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cruz is riding a ten fight win streak. His recent win was over Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC Live: Cruz vs. Johnson (October 1, 2011). Mizugaki is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Francisco Rivera by unanimous decision at UFC 173 (May 24, 2014).

Prediction: Mizugaki. In most cases, I would go with Cruz but it's almost impossible to go with Cruz. He's had two ACL surgeries. One would be bad and career threatening enough but he's had two. To make matters worse, Cruz is a fighter that relies heavily on footwork. How much will his mobility be affected from two ACL surgeries? He may never be the same again. Cruz is also coming off a near three year layoff which should be extremely to come back from and be your best. Another thing to consider is Cruz is not being given a tune up fight as Mizugaki who is a top ten fighter. Mizugaki is no slouch as he's a talented fighter. He's got good striking as he throws in combinations. He throws punches and kicks and can rock opponents. His ground game is very good. He's got a good chin and submission defense. If Cruz's leg is not 100% then he could get outstruck and taken down at will.

Cat Zingano vs. Amanda Nunes

Nickname:                                        Alpha          |      The Lioness

Height:                                                5'6             |           5'8

Age:                                                      32             |           26

MMA Record (UFC):                    8-0 (1-0)       |        9-3 (2-0)

Arm Length:                                     70 in.          |          69 in.

Team:                                            Team Zingano |   Masters MMA

Weight Class:                             Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Zingano is undefeated with eight wins. Her recent win was over Miesha Tate by TKO at UFC The Ultimate Fighter Finale 17 (April 13, 2014). Nunes is riding a two fight win streak. Her recent win was over Germaine de Randamie by TKO at UFC Fight for the Troops 3 (November 6, 2013).

Prediction: Zingano. This is a tough one to call. While I pick Zingano, I'm not very comfortable doing so. Zingano has gone through a lot in recent times as she suffered a serious injury which has kept her out for seventeen months and she also lost her husband. It's unknown if either will affect her. Nunes is also aggressive and has a lot of power. All in all, I still have to go with Zingano. Nunes is tough but Zingano is a much tougher fighter than Sheila Gaff and Germaine de Randamie and is a big step up in competition. Zingano is coming off a long layoff but Nunes is also coming off a ten month lay off of her own. Zingano is dangerous everywhere as she has shown to have knockout power. In fact, she was the first women's fighter to score a knockout in UFC history. She's a very good grappler as she was an All-American wrestler and won grappling tournaments. While Nunes hasn't been taken down in the UFC according to stats, Zingano is someone who can get it done.

Tim Kennedy vs. Yoel Romero

Nickname:                                         None             |    Soldier of God

Height:                                                5'11              |         5'10

Age:                                                      35                |          37

MMA Record (UFC):                    18-4 (3-0)        |       8-1 (4-0)

Arm Length:                                      74 in.            |        75 in.

Team:                          Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                   Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Kennedy is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Michael Bisping by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Kennedy (April 16, 2014). Romero is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Brad Tavares by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX 11 (April 19, 2014).

Prediction: Romero. On paper, this can be a nightmare for Kennedy. For the most part, he likes to wrestle and out grapple his opponents but Romero is an Olympic silver medalist in wrestling so it's very doubtful Kennedy will be able to take him down or pin him to the fence. Romero also hits very hard as almost everyone of his finishes have been by way of knockout. While Romero does have a TKO loss, that was against Rafael Cavalcante who has much more power and is a light heavyweight. Since moving down to middleweight, he's looked impressive. Kennedy has skills but Romero has the wrestling credentials and is also very strong so Romero should have the grappling advantage. As far as power, Kennedy is a good striker but other than one knock out win last year, he hasn't won by knock out in years. Romero is also a good striker in his own right with TKO wins coming by strikes to the body and elbows as well as flying knees so he's not just some fighter who throws sloppy haymakers.

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor

Nickname:                                  The Diamond   |      The Notorious

Height:                                              5'9              |            5'8

Age:                                                    25              |            26

MMA Record (UFC):                  16-3 (8-2)      |        15-2 (3-0)

Arm Length:                                   73 in.           |           73 in.

Team:                                American Top Team |      SBG Ireland

Weight Class:                                Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Poirier is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Akira Corassani by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Kennedy (April 16, 2014). McGregor is riding an eleven fight win streak. His recent win was over Diego Brandao by TKO at UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs. Brandao (July 19, 2014).

Prediction: Poirier. While McGregor has been the toast of the town, don't count Poirier out yet. Poirier presents a big challenge for McGregor. He's a very good striker who packs a lot of knockout power. He's very good with submissions as he can get submissions off his back like the triangle choke and he's very good at applying a d'arce choke. McGregor is a very good striker offensively and defensively as well as being good with head movement but Poirier is no slouch either. He also has shown to have a great chin as he's never been knocked out in his career. In fact, out of all the fighters Cub Swanson has defeated in his current resurgence, Poirier is only one of two (the other being Jeremy Stephens) out of six to not have been knocked out out by Swanson. Poirier is the more well-rounded fighter with a near equal amount of knock out and submission wins while McGregor is more of a striker. Finally, Poirier is the toughest opponent for McGregor by far. Marcus Brimage is a natural bantamweight. Max Halloway took the fight on a few weeks notice and gave away three inches in arm length. Diego Brandao also has a weak chin as most of his losses have come by way of knock out. Poirier doesn't have these problems. He's a natural featherweight, he's had time to train, he has the same reach, the same size, and he has a great chin.

Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez

Nickname:                                        Cowboy          |    The Silent Assassin

Height:                                                  6'0               |           5'9

Age:                                                        31              |            30

MMA Record (UFC):                24-6, 1NC (11-3)  |      25-3 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                       73 in.            |          69 in.

Team:                           Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA |     Blackzilians

Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Alvarez's UFC debut.

Preview: Cerrone is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Jim Miller by KO at UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Miller (July 16, 2014). Alvarez is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Michael Chandler by split decision at Bellator 106 (November 2, 2013).

Prediction: Cerrone. It's hard to go with Alvarez here. He's coming off a concussion, he's only fought once in nearly two years, and that fight was nearly eleven months ago. Cerrone is the better striker with a successful career in kickboxing and muay thai. Though he hasn't won many MMA fights by knockout, he has scored two knockout wins this year and both by head kick. He also has a very good ground game with most of his wins coming by way of submission. If Alvarez has a weakness, it's probably on the ground as two of his three losses have come by way of submission. Cerrone has also shown to be very good off his back by scoring a few submission wins by triangle choke and he's also good at taking an opponents back as he's scored submission wins by rear naked choke. Another interesting note is Alvarez's last submission loss was by way of rear naked choke. Finally, Cerrone will also have a four inch reach advantage which can make things miserable for Alvarez.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso

Nickname:                                  Mighty Mouse          |      Kamikaze

Height:                                                5'3                    |            5'3

Age:                                                      28                    |            33

MMA Record (UFC):                 20-2-1 (8-1-1)         |       17-5 (7-3)

Arm Length:                                    64 in.                   |          64 in.

Team:                                           AMC Pankration     |    Fight and Fitness

Weight Class:                                        Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Flyweight Championship

Preview: Johnson is unbeaten in seven fights (six wins, one draw). His recent win was over Ali Bagautinov by unanimous decision at UFC 174 (June 14, 2014). Cariaso is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Louis Smolka by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014).

Prediction: Johnson. Cariaso is only getting this shot for one big reason: there is no one else. The Flyweight is not a deep division. Meanwhile, Johnson has already beat Joseph Benavidez twice, John Dodson, John Moraga, and Ali Bagatinov. Dodson is also out with an injury which prevents the UFC from doing a rematch and Kyoji Horiguchi just fought. If anything, this fight seems like it was made to keep Johnson busy until Horiguchi is free to get a title shot or until Dodson comes back from his injury. Cariaso isn't a bad fighter but he doesn't offer anything against Johnson. Johnson is the better striker, wrestler, and is very quick on his feet. Many fighters have struggled with Johnson's speed as he's great as getting strikes and getting out of range before the opponent knows anything. His speed also helps his wrestling as he can shoot for takedown before a fighter is able to sprawl. Johnson showed in his second fight against Benavidez that he is capable of knocking someone out. It doesn't happen often but it's something for Cariaso to think about. He also showed against John Moraga that he's good with submission and Cariaso has submitted twice.