Bellator 125 Predictions

                                

Bellator 125 Predictions

September 15, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Javy Ayala vs. Raphael Butler

Nickname:                                      Eye Candy   |     The Silencer

Height:                                                 6'1           |          6'3

Age:                                                       26           |          30

MMA Record (BMMA):                 7-3 (2-0)    |     8-0-1 (3-0-1)

Arm Length:                                      75 in.        |        77 in.

Team:                             Fearless Fighters Gym |   Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                 Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Ayala is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Eric Prindle by TKO at Bellator 111 (March 7, 2014). Butler is unbeaten in nine fights (eight wins, one draw). His recent fight was a draw to Nick Rossborough at Bellator 119 (May 9, 2014).

Prediction: Ayala. I'll admit, I don't know where this one goes. On one hand, Ayala is currently riding a two fight win streak and beat former tournament finalist Thiago Santos and former tournament winner Eric Prindle. On the other, Butler is probably a better athlete than either one. He also will not likely get into a firefight like Santos did and is more talented than Prindle is. Then there's Butler is talented and considered to be one of Bellator's best heavyweight prospects. However, he looked horrible in his last fight where he nearly got knocked out in the first round, then lost a point when he blatantly headbutted to get Rossborough off his back in frustration, and then just layed on him for the last two round while fans booed. Butler has come off as someone who was ashamed of his last fight and wants to make up for it but I'll still go with Ayala.

Martin Stapleton vs. Goiti Yamauchi

Nickname:                                       .50 Cal             |          None

Height:                                                5'9                 |           5'10

Age:                                                      31                |             21

MMA Record (BMMA):               13-3 (0-2)         |       17-2 (3-1)

Arm Length:                                     70 in.              |          74 in.

Team:                                            Team Kaobon     |     Yamauchi Team

Weight Class:                                  Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Stapleton is coming off a win over Stanislav Enchev by submission at Full Contact Contender 3 (June 21, 2014). Yamauchi is coming off a win over Mike Richman by unanimous decision at Bellator 120 (May 17, 2013)

Prediction: Yamauchi. Yamauchi is one of Bellator's best prospects at this time. He has enjoyed success in boxing and kickboxing so he has very good striking and shown to have power but his ground game is great. He has very good Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is good at taking an opponents back as he's won many fights with the rear naked choke, and can definitely submit Stapleton. I should also point out that one of Stapleton's submission losses was due to rear naked choke. To date, he's never been finished in his career while Stapleton has been submitted twice. Yamauchi is also the taller and will enjoy a good reach advantage. Stapleton has not looked impressive since coming to Bellator as he's winless and he hasn't shown much ground skills despite having won many fights by submission. He's also making his featherweight debut so it's unknown how he'll be after the weight cut especially since he missed weight last year when he was a lightweight. The only real weakness for Yamauchi is he tends to focus on getting submissions when he's on his back instead of trying to get back up which can cost him rounds.

Brian Rogers vs. Rafael Carvalho

Nickname:                 The Professional Predator |          None

Height:                                                5'11           |           6'3

Age:                                                      30            |            28

MMA Record (BMMA):                11-6 (4-4)    |       9-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                      73 in.         |      Unknown

Team:                                 Factoryx Muay Thai |      Killer Bees

Weight Class:                                 Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Carvalho's Bellator debut. Cavalho is replacing James Irvin and Brett Cooper.

Preview: Rogers is coming off a win over Adrian Miles by KO at Bellator 119 (May 9, 2014). Carvalho is riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over Mauri Roque by TKO at Talent Circuit MMA 9 (May 10, 2014).

Prediction: Rogers. Going into this, I know nothing about Carvalho other than stats. I know he has the height advantage, he's won the majority of his fights by knockout, and he's never been knocked out but that's all I know. Rogers has some stuff going for him. He hits very hard, he's a good striker as he showed in his last fight where he won with a flying knee. He's arguably fought tougher competition as he's faced fighters like Alexander Shlemenko, Dan Cramer, and Mikkel Parlo. He also has been trying to make improvements like improving his ground game and fight smarter as he showed in his last fight. His major weakness is he can get tired after the first round but if he picks his spots and continues to fight smart then it shouldn't affect him as much.

Doug Marshall vs. Melvin Manhoef

Nickname:                                     The Rhino       |        No Mercy

Height:                                               5'10             |            5'8

Age:                                                     37               |            38

MMA Record (BMMA):                18-7 (4-1)     |     28-11-1, 1NC (0-0)

Arm Length:                                     69 in.           |          72.5 in.

Team:                             Elite Team Martial Arts | Manhoef Fight and Fitness

Weight Class:                                  Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Manhoef's Bellator debut.

Preview: Marshall is coming off a loss to Alexander Shlemenko by KO at Bellator 109 (November 22, 2013). Manhoef is coming off a win over Evangelista Santos by TKO at Gringo Super Fight 10 (April 27, 2014).

Prediction: Manhoef. This is mostly a battle of strikers and Manhoef is the better striker. Manhoef's biggest weakness has been his ground skills but Marshall isn't a grappler so he shouldn't be able to control Manhoef. Manhoef will also have a 4.5 inch reach advantage which is important since both will likely look for the knockout. Marshall has a lot of knockout power but he's not a technical striker as he usually tries to knock opponents out with his right hand. If Manhoef can avoid it then he should be ok. Marshall is also more likely to be knocked out as he's been knocked out more with six of his losses coming by way of knockout. Meanwhile, Manhoef hasn't been knocked out in years in both MMA and kickboxing competition. Manhoef's power is also scary as he can knock fighters out very quickly and was the first to knock out Mark Hunt in an MMA fight. Manhoef also throws a variety of strikes including punches, knees to the stomach, and leg kicks which could throw Marshall off. In fact, Marshall lost his last fight against Shlemenko due to body strikes.