UFC 173 Predictions

                                 

UFC 173 Predictions

May 23, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

David Michaud vs. Li Jingliang

Nickname:                                        Bulldawg          |    The Leech  
Height:                                                  5'9                 |        6'0
Age:                                                        25                |         26
MMA Record (UFC):                       7-0 (0-0)          |      8-2 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                        69 in.             |       72 in.
Team:                                       Next Edge Academy |  China Top Team
Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)                          

Notes: Both Michaud and Jingliang's UFC debuts

Preview: Michaud is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over Carey Vanier at Dakota FC: Winter Bowl (January 11, 2014). Jingliang is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Luke Jumeau by submission at Legend FC 11 (April 27, 2013).

Predictions: Jingliang. Jingliang seems like the best pick here. He's a very good grappler as he's good in wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Jingliang also trains in Sanda or Sanshou which is a Chinese martal art. This could be very helpful since it's doubtful Michaud will have someone that knows that martial art to train with. He's also good at finishing fights with four wins by submission and two by (T)KO. He's also tough to put away as both of his losses are by decision. He's coming off a thirteen month layoff but that may not affect him too much. For one, Michaud is a young fighter not coming out of an elite gym so he may not know how to take advantage of any rust Jingliang may have. Michaud is also taken this fight on one month's notice which doesn't give him enough time to have a full training camp and cut weight properly

 

Sam Sicilia vs. Aaron Phillips

Nickname:                                           None        |         None 
Height:                                                  5'8           |          5'9
Age:                                                       28           |           24
MMA Record (UFC):                        12-4 (2-3) |      5-0 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                        67 in.       |        67 in.
Team:                                                  Sikjitsu      | Gladiators Academy
Weight Class:                                        Featherweight (145 pounds)                           

Notes: Phillips' UFC debut. Phillips is replacing Choi Doo-Ho.

Preview: Sicilia is coming off a loss to Cole Miller by submission at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Phillipou (January 15, 2014). Phillips is undefeated with five wins. His recent win was over Tyler Shinn by split decision C3 Fights (February 8, 2014).

Predictions: Sicilia. For one, Phillips is a replacement. Sicilia was also supposed to fight Choi Doo-Ho who is arguably a harder opponent. Both guys prefer to strike but Sicilia should get the better of it has he has a lot of power with most of his wins by knockout and scored an eight second knockout when he qualified for the Ultimate Fighter Live back in 2012. Sicilia is also good on the ground by winning four fights by submission so if this fight goes to the ground then he should have the advantage. Sicilia is 2-3 in his last five fights but they were losses to Rony Jason, Maximo Blanco, and Cole Miller who are more experienced and tougher fights than Phillips. Phillips has only fought five times and is making his debut on short notice which could make him very nervous since many young debuting fighter have suffered from nerves when they made their debuts on the big stage.

Andrew Njokuani vs. Vinc Pichel

Nickname:                                        The Assassin       |    From Hell

Height:                                                   6'0                  |        5'10
Age:                                                        34                   |         31
MMA Record (UFC):                   16-7, 1NC (3-3)     |     8-1 (1-1)
Arm Length:                                        75.5 in.             |       72 in.
Team:                                           Janjira Muay Thai    | Big John McCarthy's Ultimate Training
Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)                          

Notes:

Preview: Njokuani is coming off a win over Roger Bowling by KO on UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Melendez (April 20, 2013). Pichel is coming off a win over Garett Whiteley by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Phillipou (January 15, 2014).

Predictions: Njokuani. Both fighters are clearly strikers and will look to bang. However, if this scenario occurs than Njokuani should have the advantage. He's a better striker as he is a former undefeated kickboxer and has much better defense. Pichel's striking defense isn't good as could get hit more than him hitting Njokuani. Though neither are grapplers, Njokuani could have the advantage as Pichel has very poor takedown defense which could be helpful if the fight isn't going well.

Al Iaquinta vs. Mitch Clarke

Nickname:                                             Raging    |    Danger Zone  
Height:                                                     5'9         |         5'10
Age:                                                          27          |          28
MMA Record (UFC):                        8-2-1 (3-1) |     10-2 (1-2)
Arm Length:                                          70 in.      |         73 in.
Team:                            Serra-Longo Fight Team |     MMA Lab
Weight Class:                                  Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes:

Preview: Iaquinta is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Kevin Lee by unanimous decision at UFC 169 (February 1, 2014). Clarke is coming off a win over John Maguire by unanimous decision at UFC 161 (June 15, 2013).

Predictions: Iaquinta. Iaquinta is a good well-rounded fighter with good wrestling and stand up skills. Iaquinta has lost twice by submission while Clarke has won most of his fights by submission but that may not matter. Though Clarke has won by submission many times, he hasn't won a fight by submission in nearly four years while Iaquinta hasn't lost by submission in two years. Clarke hasn't been the most active fighter either as he only fought once in 2012 and once in 2013. He's also coming off an eleven month layoff. Iaquinta also has excellent takedown defense and should be able to win this fight if he can keep the fight standing as Clarke isn't much of a striker. He doesn't have many knockout wins and his striking accuracy & defense aren't that good.

Chris Holdsworth vs. Chico Camus

Nickname:                                    Holds It Down      |         King

Height:                                                  5'11               |          5'6

Age:                                                        26                 |          29

MMA Record (UFC):                       5-0 (1-0)          |      14-4 (3-1)

Arm Length:                                         71 in.            |        66 in.

Team:                                            Team Alpha Male |   Roufusport

Weight Class:                                  Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Camus is replacing Kyung Ho Kang

Preview: Holdsworth is undefeated with five wins. His recent win was over Davey Grant by submission at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 18 (November 30, 2013). Camus is riding a two fight fight win streak. His recent win was over Yaotzin Meza by unanimous decision on UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson (January 25, 2014).

Predictions: Holdsworth. Holdsworth may be inexperienced but that may be balanced out with the fact that Camus is taken the fight on short notice. Holdsworth has a lot of advantages. For one, he's probably one of the biggest bantamweights in the world and will have a big reach advantage. Holdsworth is also a very good grappler as all of his wins are by submission. He's so good in fact that he received his black belt in BJJ at only 21 years old which made him one of the youngest black belts in the United States. Camus' takedown defense is also not that good so Holdsworth shouldn't struggle to get him to the ground. Holdsworth has trained in kickboxing and with a five inch reach advantage, he should be able to hold his own standing up. Holdsworth also trains at Team Alpha Male which should help him be prepared for this fight.

Tony Ferguson vs. Katsunori Kikuno

Nickname:                                     El Cucuy        |            None

Height:                                                 6'0            |               5'7

Age:                                                       30            |               32
MMA Record (UFC):                      14-3 (4-1)    |        22-5-1 (1-0)
Arm Length:                                     76 in.          |           66.5 in.
Team:                               Reign Training Center |    Alliance Square
Weight Class:                                  Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes:

Preview: Ferguson is coming off a win over Mike Rio by submission at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013). Kikuno is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Quinn Mulhern by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs. Lim (January 4, 2014).

Predictions: Ferguson. Ferguson is probably the best wrestler Kikuno has faced in his career as he's a former NCAA Division II Wrestler. Ferguson is also much bigger which can make him a nightmare for Kikuno if he can get him to the ground as Kikuno can get drained having a much bigger opponent on top and possibly outwrestling him. Ferguson also has a far longer reach and should be able to keep Kikuno at bay with his reach, possibly frustrate him, and eventually knock him out (though neither fighter has ever been knocked out in their career). There's also the case of gyms. Ferguson has been training at Reign Training Center which is one of the best gyms in the world. He also has great sparring partners like Mark Munoz, Jake Ellenberger, and Chael Sonnen. Kikuno trains at Alliance Square but I'm not sure who he has for sparring partners. His main coach is Tsuyoshi Kohsaka who is a legend in MMA but hasn't fought in nearly a decade and may be outdated.

Michael Chiesa vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Nickname:                                    Maverick        |      Massaranduba 
Height:                                               6'1              |              5'8
Age:                                                    26              |               35
MMA Record (UFC):                   10-1 (3-1)      |         14-3 (3-2)
Arm Length:                                    76 in.           |           70.5 in.
Team:                                      Team Alpha Male |      Evolucao Thai
Weight Class:                                   Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes:

Preview: Chiesa is coming off a win over Colton Smith by submission at UFC Fight For The Troops 3 (November 6, 2013). Trinaldo is coming off a win over Jesse Ronson by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi (February 15, 2014).

Predictions: Chiesa. Chiesa is a lot like his teammate Chris Holdsworth. Like Holdsworth, Chiesa is more of a grappler who has won most of his fights by submission. He's also very big for his weight class and a very good reach advantage. Though he's known for his submission skills, he has shown he can strike and knock opponents out as he scored two knockouts during his time on the The Ultimate Fighter so he can be dangerous standing up especially with a near six inch reach advantage. On the ground, he's also good with scrambles. Trinaldo has lost most of his fights by submission which is something to think about especially since the last submission was only in September. While Chiesa has lost once by submission, it was to Jorge Masvidal who has competed in grappling tournament before and is probably a better grappler than Trinaldo.

Jamie Varner vs. James Krause

Nickname:                                            C-4            |   The James Krause  
Height:                                                  5'8             |          6'2
Age:                                                        28             |          27
MMA Record (UFC):             21-9-1, 2 NC (3-4) |     20-5 (1-1)
Arm Length:                                       72 in.          |        75 in.
Team:                               Arizona Combat Sports | Grindhouse MMA
Weight Class:                                   Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes:

Preview: Varner is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Abel Trujillo by KO at UFC 169 (February 1, 2014). Krause is coming off a loss to Bobby Green by TKO at UFC Fight For The Troops 3 (November 6, 2013).

Predictions: Varner. Varner is probably the more well-rounded as he's won seven fights by knockout and eleven fights by submission. Krause is more of a submission fighter so this could help Varner since he will likely be more comfortable regardless where the fight goes. Krause has the reach advantage but that shouldn't be a problem. Edson Barboza has the same reach and Varner defeated him by TKO just as Barboza was coming off his highlight reel knockout over Terry Etim. Varner's takedown accuracy and defense are far better than Krause's which benefits him since both have won most of their fights by submission. On the other hand, Krause's takedown accuracy and defense aren't good. This will be a problem since Krause wins most of his fights by submission and if he can't get the fight to the ground then he could be in trouble. Same with takedown defense. Varner has won most fights by submission and will probably look to take the fight to the ground. If Krause can't defend then he could see himself at Varner's mercy either getting submitted or spending rounds or even the entire fight blocking submissions. Varner also is also a member of the MMA Lab and has the opportunity to train with Ben Henderson and John Moraga to name some.

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Francisco Rivera

Nickname: None | Cisco  
Height: 5'7 | 5'9
Age: 30 | 32
MMA Record (UFC): 19-7-2 (6-2) | 10-2, 1NC (3-1, 1NC)
Arm Length: 69.5 in. | 70 in.
Team: Hakkei Gym | United Mixed Martial Arts
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)                          

Notes: Rivera is replacing TJ Dillashaw

Preview: Mizugaki is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Nam Phan by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013). Rivera is unbeaten in six fights (5 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a win over George Roop by TKO at UFC Fight For The Troops 3 (November 6, 2013).

Predictions: Mizugaki. After yo-yoing for the first few years of his Zuffa career, Mizugaki has seemed to finally come into his own. Mizugaki is a very good and well-rounded fighter. His striking is very good. He mixes it with punches and kicks. He uses combos and goes for body shots which are very underrated as a lot of fighters prefer one shot to the face. He has shown power as he's won five fights by knockout and rocked Nam Phan in his last fight which is a little impressive giving they're bantamweights and Phan has a reliable chin. He's also got very good wrestling as he's good with takedowns and great with defense. He's also a fighter that learns from his mistakes. He's become more aggressive since the controversial loss to Chris Cariaso. However, he may fight smarter as well as he acknowledges that he gassed out trying to finish Phan. Rivera is a good striker but may be predictable since he wins most fights by knockout by far. He's also never won by submission so it should be obvious what he'll go for. Mizugaki is also the kind of fighter that mostly loses to the best in the division like Miguel Torres, Scott Jorgensen, Urijah Faber, and Brian Bowles. He's like a Michael Bisping or Gabriel Gonzaga of the bantamweight division.

Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger

Nickname:                                       Ruthless        |     The Juggernaut  
Height:                                                5'11            |           5'9
Age:                                                       32             |           29
MMA Record (UFC):              22-10, 1NC (7-4) |       29-7 (8-3)
Arm Length:                                      74 in.          |          73 in.
Team:                                  American Top Team | Reign Training Center
Weight Class:                                  Welterweight (170 pounds)                          

Notes:

Preview: Lawler is coming off a loss to Johny Hendricks by unanimous decision at UFC 171 (March 15, 2014). Ellenberger is coming off a loss to Rory MacDonald by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Moraga (July 27, 2013).

Predictions: Ellenberger. Both fighters pack a lot of power and are capable of knocking the other out with one good punch but I still go with Ellenberger. As I mentioned, Ellenberger's power is scary and his knockouts can be extremely brutal. Perhaps the big difference is Ellenberger's wrestling. Not only is Ellenberger a very good wrestler but wrestling has been a weakness of Lawler's in the past and a takedown in the fifth round was what many consider the game changer that got Johny Hendricks the decision in Lawler's previous fight. Ellenberger has good takedowns and excellent takedown defense. He could very well control the fight with his wrestling if he wants to and can either score points or throw Lawler off.

 

Dan Henderson vs. Daniel Cormier

Nickname:                                        Hendo            |           DC  
Height:                                                5'11              |          5'11
Age:                                                      43               |            35
MMA Record (UFC):                     30-11 (7-5)     |      14-0 (3-0)
Arm Length:                                      71 in.            |          72 in.
Team:                                               Team Quest    | American Kickboxing Academy
Weight Class:                                     Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)                          

Notes:

Preview: Henderson is coming off a win over Mauricio Rua by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson 2 (March 23, 2014). Cormier is undefeated with fourteen wins. His recent win was over Patrick Cummins by TKO at UFC 170 (February 22, 2014).

Predictions: Cormier. This could be extremely ugly. Other than the H-Bomb, Henderson has absolutely nothing for Cormier. Cormier is a far better athlete than Henderson. He's a bigger and stronger fighter. He's younger and healthier than Henderson. He's a better striker. And he uses his wrestling. To Henderson's credit, he's had a long career and able to fend off father time but his last few fights have clearly seen that everything is finally catching up with him. 43 years old, 17 years of fighting, and over 40 fights are finally catching up to Henderson. He suffered his first knockout loss back in November against Vitor Belfort and looked slow & old against Shogun in his last fight. Other than landing that H-Bomb, there's nothing Henderson can do to beat Cormier. He's not going to outstrike Cormier. He's not going to outwrestle Cormier as Cormier has not been taken down yet in his UFC career. He's not a submission fighter and thus won't submit Cormier. He's also way too predictable. He's not looking to grapple or submit Cormier. He'll just come forward, box, wait for the right moment, wind up, aim, and fire. Cormier is also a far smarter fighter as he's not going to engage in a fire fight and give Henderson the chance to use the H-Bomb. Finally, Henderson just fought two months ago which is a very quick turnaround given that he went to the third round with Shogun, is 43 years old, and is going to fight a world class fighter.

Renan Pegado vs. TJ Dillashaw

Nickname:                                            Barao          |      The Viper  
Height:                                                    5'7             |          5'6
Age:                                                         27             |           28
MMA Record (UFC):                 32-1, 1NC (7-0)  |       9-2 (5-2)
Arm Length:                                        70 in.           |         66 in.
Team:                                                Nova Uniao    |  Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                     Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

Preview: Barao is unbeaten in 33 fights (32 wins, 1 no contest). His recent win was over Urijah Faber by TKO at UFC 169 (February 1, 2014). Dillashaw is coming off a win over Mike Easton by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Phillipou (January 15, 2014).

Predictions: Barao. Barao is a beast and potentially the best bantamweight in the world. Dillashaw is a very good fighter but he's mostly getting this shot because he's the best fighter the UFC has that Barao hasn't beaten yet, Raphael Assuncao turned the fight down due to injury, and Dominick Cruz is still injured. Barao has also looked awesome since arriving in the UFC. He's got very good striking, power, jiu-jitsu, and submission skills. He's very fast and can swarm on an opponent when he's got them in trouble. He's never been finished in his MMA career to date and hasn't shown any weaknesses for Dillashaw to exploit. Barao has a good reach advantage and with that & the speed, he can beat Dillashaw to the punch. Then there's a case of history. As impressive as Team Alpha Male is, they have yet to get that UFC Title. Faber hasn't been able to win a title and neither has Benavidez despite each being give multiple chances. It's hard to see Dillashaw succeed before Faber and Benavidez do.