Bellator 120 Predictions

                                                

Bellator 120 Predictions

May 15, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Shahbulat Shamhalaev vs. Fabricio Silva

Nickname:                                       Assassin                 |        Guerreiro

Height:                                                 5'6                      |             5'9

Age:                                                      30                       |             23

MMA Record (BMMA):                12-2-1 (3-1)            |   19-3, 1NC (1-2)

Arm Length:                                     66.5 in.                  |          69 in.

Team:                                         Team Bombsquad        |  Ronildo Nobre Judo Club

Weight Class:                                     Featherweight (145 pounds)                        

Notes:

Preview: Shamhalaev is coming off a loss to Pat Curran by technical submission at Bellator 95 (April 4, 2013). Guerreiro is coming off a loss to Patricio Freire by unanimous decision at Bellator 103 (October 11, 2013).

Predictions: Guerreiro. One weakness Shamhalaev has shown is submissions as both of his losses are due to submission. Guerreiro has won twelve fights by submission so he's definitely capable of submitting Shamhalaev. Shamhalaev has only won one fight by submission so this could make him predictable as he'll look to stand and strike. He also hasn't fought in thirteen months so he may have a lot of rust. Guerreiro is three inches taller so being much bigger gives him an even better advantage on the ground. Though he's only won four fights by knockout, that could probably give him a better chance standing up than Shamhalaev on the ground. Guerreiro will also have a two and a half inch reach advantage which could be very helpful.

Mike Richman vs. Goiti Yamauchi

Nickname:                                     The Marine      |        None

Height:                                                 5'8              |         5'10

Age:                                                      28               |          21

MMA Record (BMMA):               16-4 (5-3)        |     16-2 (2-1)

Arm Length:                                     69 in.            |        74 in.

Team:                                           The Academy    |  Team Yamauchi

Weight Class:                                 Featherweight (145 pounds)                        

Notes:

Preview: Richman is coming off a loss to Desmond Green by unanimous decision at Bellator 110 (February 28, 2014). Yamauchi is coming off a loss to Will Martinez by unanimous decision at Bellator 110 (February 28, 2014).

Predictions: Yamauchi. Despite his recent loss, Yamauchi is still one of Bellator's biggest prospects. Heading into this fight, Yamauchi will have a small size advantage and a nice reach advantage which can be very helpful for Yamauchi. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is very good and will likely win this fight if it goes to the ground. Currently, Yamauchi has thirteen wins by submission which means Richman should want nothing to do with the ground. Despite being known during his MMA career for his jiu-jitsu, Yamauchi has underrated stand up skills as he's a former amateur boxing champion, is 5-0 in boxing, and 7-0 in kickboxing. Richman is a threat standing up but Yamauchi showed in his fight with Saul Almeida that he can trade, take shots, and score a knockout. Another advantage for Yamauchi is that both of his losses are by decision so he's tough to put away. To be honest, the recent loss was also a possible good thing in the long run for Yamauchi. Prior to his loss to Martinez, he came in nearly seven pounds overweight for the Almeida fight and was said to already been predicting victory in the Bellator Featherweight tournament before it began and how he would beat Martinez. Because of these things, there was questions about whether he was taken these fights seriously. The recent loss should humble him and motivate him to work harder.

Marcin Held vs. Nate Jolly

Nickname:                                                None        |   Ladies' Love

Height:                                                       5'9           |         5'8

Age:                                                            22            |         31

MMA Record (BMMA):                     18-3 (7-2)     |    14-5 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                            71 in.        |       73.5 in.

Team:                           Gracie Barra Bastion Tychy | Team Oxendine

Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes: Jolly's Bellator debut.

Preview: Held is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Derek Anderson by submission at Bellator 117 (April 18, 2014). Jolly is coming off a win over Gerric Hayes by unanimous decision at XFC 26 (October 18, 2013).

Predictions: Held. Jolly was brought in as a winnable fight to showcase Will Brooks and now he's a winnable fight to showcase Marcin Held. Held is a world class grappler with ten wins by submission and gold medals in International Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Federation, Abu Dhabi Combat Club, and FILA competitions. If this fight goes to the ground then Held will win easily. Nothing against Jolly but he doesn't have the accomplishments or history in grappling. Held's recent win over up and comer Derek Anderson showed proved he's capable of handing a fighter there first submission loss (though Jolly has lost by submission once) and he's more than a leg lock specialist as he won with a triangle choke. Held will no doubt be the best grappler that Jolly has ever faced. Held has also shown in recent fights that he has worked on his striking and showed power by knocking Ryan Healy out in less than 90 seconds which marked the first time in three years that Healy was knocked out.

Cheick Ouedraogo vs. Eric Smith

Nickname:                                          Kongo                 |      None

Height:                                                   6'4                    |        6'0

Age:                                                        39                      |       29

MMA Record (BMMA):                20-9-2 (2-1)           |     7-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                         82 in.                |    Unknown

Team:                                               Wolfslair MMA     |  Syndicate MMA

Weight Class:                                     Heavyweight (265 pounds)                          

Notes: Smith's Bellator debut

Preview: Kongo is coming off a loss to Vitaly Minakov by unanimous decision at Bellator 115 (April 4, 2014). Smith is coming off a win over Jan Jorgensen by TKO at Showdown Fights 12 (September 28, 2013).

Predictions: Kongo. This fight is clearly a winnable tune up fight for Kongo to get him back in the win column and prepare him for a future tournament. I don't know anything about Smith but he'll likely offer little to nothing against Kongo. Kongo is a much bigger fighter. He's a longer fighter who knows how to use his reach whether for jabbing his opponents or keeping them at bay. Despite being a striker, Kongo is good offensively when it comes to grappling. He has very good ground n' pound and good clinch work. Smith has also won most of his fights by submission but Kongo has good submission defense as his only submission loss was a technical submission loss to Frank Mir in 2009 and that was after Kongo was dropped by Mir with a punch.

Michael Page vs. Ricky Rainey

Nickname:                                             Venom      |      The Sniper

Height:                                                       6'3          |          6'1

Age:                                                            27          |           30

MMA Record (BMMA):                     5-0 (1-0)     |       8-2 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                            77 in.       |       78.5 in.

Team:                                   London Shootfighters | Renegade Fighting Systems

Weight Class:                                        Welterweight (170 pounds)                       

Notes:

Preview: Page is undefeated with five wins. His recent win was over Ramdan Mohamed by submission at SFL 15 (April 12, 2013). Rainey is coming off a win over Andy Murad by TKO at Bellator 116 (April 11, 2014).

Predictions: Rainey. Rainey will have a 1.5 inch reach advantage which could be very helpful since both are strikers that go for the knockout. He's also fought twice as much as Page and lost so he should know his strengths and weaknesses. With Page 5-0 he's still a young up and comer and given his flashy style, he could take risk that he shouldn't and potentially be reckless. He's also been injury prone as he was forced to pull out of two fights for Bellator last season and hasn't fought in a year. Another important thing to know is that none of Page's fights have gone past four minutes. This leaves a lot of questions. Will he wilt? Will he get tired? Rainey has been the distance a few times so he should know how to conserve his energy and not potentially folds if the fight goes beyond the first round.

 

Blagoi Ivanov vs. Alexander Volkov

Nickname:                                        Bagata        |           Drago

Height:                                                 5'11         |             6'7

Age:                                                       27           |             25

MMA Record (BMMA):         11-0, 1NC (6-0) |        21-4 (5-1)

Arm Length:                                      73 in.         |          81.5 in.

Team:                         Combat Sambo - Bulgaria | RusFighters Sport Club

Weight Class:                                   Heavyweight (265 pounds)                      

Notes: Bellator MMA Season Ten Heavyweight Tournament Finals

Preview: Ivanov is unbeaten in twelve fights (11 wins, 1 no contest). His recent win was over Lavar Johnson by submission at Bellator 116 (April 11, 2014). Volkov is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Mighty Mo by KO at Bellator 116 (April 11, 2014).

Predictions: Ivanov. Both men have looked impressive this season but Ivanov will have the advantage. Ivanov has shown he can hang with heavy hitting strikers as he shown in his fights with Richard Hale and Lavar Johnson. He's giving away a lot of reach but it shouldn't matter since Johnson and Hale had the same arm length as Volkov. Ivanov has more weapons in his arsenal. He's proven he's not a bad striker and has world class grappling. Volkov is easily the better striker by far and the best one that Ivanov has faced in the tournament but Ivanov has shown he's tough to put away as he's never lost a fight. As mentioned, Ivanov has faced guys similar to Volkov in this tournament as he's faced fighters with the same length and power. So this isn't the first time he's fought a tall, long fighter with a lot of knockout power. On the other hand, Volkov hasn't faced anyone like Ivanov in this tournament. Mark Holota is a decent fighter but not one with elite skills like Ivanov. Mighty Mo is far older and is mostly a kickboxer who at 43 years old has now decided to focus on MMA. Neither of these guys are as well-rounded as Ivanov and they definitely don't have the world class grappling skills. While Volkov has improved his takedown defense and ability to get back up, he still has a history of being prone to being taken down.

Alexander Shlemenko vs. Tito Ortiz

Nickname:                                          Storm                     |   The People's Champion

Height:                                                 5'11                       |        6'2

Age:                                                       29                         |        39

MMA Record (BMMA):                50-7 (11-1)               |     16-11-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                        71 in.                    |       74 in.

Team:                                         RusFighters Sport Club  |   Team Punishment

Weight Class:                                       Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)                            

Notes: Ortiz's Bellator debut.

Preview: Shlemenko is riding a thirteen fight win streak. His recent win was over Brennan Ward by submission at Bellator 114 (March 28, 2014). Ortiz is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Forrest Griffin by unanimous decision at UFC 148 (July 7, 2012).

Predictions: Shlemenko. If Ortiz were in his prime and very healthy then he would probably win with ease due to his sheer size advantage and wrestling skills alone. However, Ortiz is far gone from his prime and very broken down including well documented neck injuries. Ortiz weighs more and is much older which should make him very slow to keep up with Shlemenko. He's also very predictable as he doesn't have much submission skills and isn't that good of a striker. On the other hand, Shlemenko is in his prime and much healthier. His striking is far better and even submission skills despite not being considered a grappler. Shlemenko is also a type of striker that Ortiz isn't too familiar as he's very technical by going for body shots and fires from all sorts of angles instead of being a very straight forward. Ortiz has lost to body shots in the past as it was one of things that put him away in his fight with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in 2011. The fact that Shlemenko not only attacks from various angles but with different moves like spinning back elbows and side kicks to the stomach could throw Ortiz off and prevent him from getting comfortable and keep him guessing.

Michael Chandler vs. Will Brooks

Nickname:                                          None                 |       Ill Will

Height:                                                  5'8                   |         5'10

Age:                                                       28                    |          27

MMA Record (BMMA):                12-1 (9-1)            |      13-1 (5-1)

Arm Length:                                       69 in.                |         71 in.

Team:                                                Alliance MMA   | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                         Lightweight (155 pounds)                      

Notes: For the Interim Bellator Lightweight Championship

Preview: Chandler is coming off a loss to Eddie Alvarez by split decision at Bellator 106 (November 2, 2013). Brooks is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Alexander Sarnavskiy by unanimous decision at Bellator 109 (November 22, 2013).

Predictions: Chandler. Brooks is a great up and comer (not sure if I can still call him a prospect since he won a tournament and has become a top lightweight in the promotion) but he may be in over his head. Other then size and reach, Brooks doesn't have or do anything better than Chandler. Chandler is by far the better wrestler as he's a former NCAA Division I All-American. Chandler may be the better striker. He also may be the better submission fighter. He's tougher to finish as he's never been stopped in a fight while Brooks has been knocked out once. At his best, Chandler is a beast. He's the first fighter to knock out former Bellator tournament winner David Rickels. He's the first to submit the very decorated Marcin Held and Olympic judoka Rick Hawn. Brooks is also taken a big step up in competition by going from Nate Jolly to Michael Chandler. Another problem is that Brooks won the Season Nine Lightweight tournament by using wrestling, grinding decision at times, and using elbows to cut up John Alessio. However, given Chandler is a great wrestler, Brooks likely won't be able to get the fight to the ground or cut him with elbows or grind a decision. In fact, Chandler is the best wrestler Brooks has faced in his career and no opponent in Brooks' career has the same level of wrestling that Chandler possesses.

Quinton Jackson vs. Muhammed Lawal

Nickname:                                    Rampage         |          King Mo

Height:                                               6'1              |               6'0

Age:                                                     35              |               33

MMA Record (BMMA):             34-11 (2-0)      |     12-3, 1NC (4-2)

Arm Length:                                      73 in.         |             79 in.

Team:                                         Wolfslair MMA | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)                            

Notes: Bellator MMA Season Ten Light Heavyweight Tournament Final

Preview: Jackson is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Christian M'Pumbu by KO at Bellator 110 (February 28, 2014). Lawal is coming off a win over Mikhail Zayats by unanimous decision at Bellator 110 (February 28, 2014).

Predictions: Jackson. Jackson may be past his prime but he's never plummeted in his career. Since coming to Bellator, Jackson seems healthy and motivated which makes him a dangerous opponent. He's got a very good chin as he hasn't been knocked out in nearly a decade and his last submission loss was nearly three years ago. Lawal can sometimes be one of those grapplers that occasionally forgets his grappling and prefers to strike which doesn't always work as seen in his fight with Rafael Cavalcante and his first fight with Emanuel Newton. Lawal is the better wrestler but Jackson has underrated wrestling and could potentially block takedowns and keep the fight standing. There's also the matter of consistency. Sure Beltran is no where near an elite fighter and Christian M'Pumbu is on a losing streak and coming off a year long layoff, but Jackson has looked good in both fights and scored knockouts. Lawal has been up and down. When put up with gatekeepers like Przemyslaw Mysiala, Seth Petruzelli, and Jacob Noe then he looks good – great and dominant. When put up with someone that's a bad stylistic fit like Emanuel Newton then he comes off with no answer. Even when put with a styles clash like Mikhail Zayats then both look bad despite Lawal winning.