The Ryan Porzl Blog

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

UFC 175 Predictions

UFC 175 Predictions

July 1, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Kevin Casey vs. Bubba Bush

Nickname: King | The Fighting Texas Aggie

Height: 5'11 | 6'0

Age: Unknown | 28

MMA Record (UFC): 8-3 (0-1) | 8-2 (0-0)

Arm Length: 77 in. | 72 in.

Team: Black House | Brazos Valley MMA

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Bush's UFC debuts.

Preview: Casey is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Andrew Sanchez by KO at RFA 15 (June 6, 2014). Bush is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Alfonso Gonzales by submission at Legacy FC 31 (June 13, 2014).

Predictions: Casey. As is the case with most prelims on Fight Pass, I'm not familiar with either fighter. But I'll go with Casey. Casey is training with Black House so he should have better trainers and sparring partners. He's trained with Rickson Gracie in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a black belt. He's had an even amount of knockout and submission wins with three each. He has a big reach advantage with his arms being five inches longer. All of his losses have come by TKO but he could still win with the reach advantage if he knows how to use it and possibly getting better training. Then there's the case that this is Bush's UFC debut. Fighters who move to the big leagues tend to get nervous and Bush has never competed in a big company before. Casey has been on the Ultimate Fighter and he has competed in the UFC, Strikeforce, and K-1 Hero's so he has been on big stages before. Casey has also faced named fighters as he has fought against Minowaman and Matt Lindland.

Luke Zachrich vs. Guilherme Vasconcelos

Nickname: None | Bomba

Height: 6'2 | 6'0

Age: 32 | Unknown

MMA Record (UFC): 13-3 (0-1) | 3-1 (0-0)

Arm Length: 74.5 in. | 72 in.

Team: Ronin Training Center | Titi Jiu Jitsu

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Vasconcelos' UFC debut.

Preview: Zachrich is coming off a loss to Caio Magalhaes by TKO at UFC on FOX 11 (April 19, 2014). Vasconcelos is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Elizeu dos Santos at Jungle Fight 54 (June 29, 2013).

Predictions: Zachrich. For one, Zachrich has the experience as Vasconcelos has only competed in four professional fights. Vasconcelos has also not competed in more than a year. He's making his debut in the UFC which could make him nervous. It's very common for fighters to get nervous fighting on a big stage especially when they've had so few of fights. Zachrich is also a pretty well-rounded fighter with four wins coming by way of knockout and seven by submission. Vasconcelos is very decorated in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but Zachrich does have a brown belt in BJJ so he can hold his own on the ground.

George Roop vs. Rob Font

Nickname: None | None

Height: 5'10 | 5'8

Age: 32 | Unknown

MMA Record (UFC): 15-10-1 (5-6) | 10-1 (0-0)

Arm Length: 72 in. | Unknown

Team: Apex MMA | Team Sityodtong

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Font's UFC debut.

Preview: Roop is coming off a win over Dustin Kimura by unanimous decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale (April 16, 2014). Font is riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over Tristan Johnson by KO at CES MMA 23 (April 25, 2014).

Predictions: Roop. I'll admit, I know nothing of Font. Roop is a huge bantamweight. He has very good striking defense, very good takedown accuracy, and takedown defense. He's got good standup with TKO wins coming by punches, body shots, and head kicks. Roop has faced tougher competition including Hatsu Hioki, Brian Bowles, Mark Hominick, Korean Zombie, and Cub Swanson. His record can be deceiving. At first look, 15-10 doesn't look good. But when you look at closely and see he's beaten talent like Korean Zombie and Brian Bowles while his losses coming from Eddie Wineland, Mark Hominick, Hatsu Hioki, and Cub Swanson you'll see he's won and lost to top competition. Font's 10-1 but outside of a loss to current top Bellator featherweight Desmond Green early in both men's career, he hasn't fought anyone notable. Font's taking a big step up in his career.

Chris Camozzi vs. Bruno Santos

Nickname: None | Carioca

Height: 6'3 | 5'9

Age: 27 | 26

MMA Record (UFC): 19-7 (6-4) | 13-1 (0-1)

Arm Length: 75.5 in. | 72 in.

Team: Factory X Muay Thai/MMA | Ze Mario Team

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Camozzi is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent win was over Lorenz Larkin by unanimous decision at UFC Fight for the Troops 3 (November 6, 2013). Santos is coming off a loss to Krzysztof Jotko by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013).

Predictions: Carmozzi. He's got good Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He's very good defensively in regards to striking and takedowns. He's a very big middleweight with a two and half inch reach advantage. Camozzi has been a submission magnet but doesn't have to worry about being finished as Santos has only one win by knockout and one by submission and the knockout win was a corner stoppage. Both finishes were also years ago as well. Carmozzi's recent losses were to very good fighters like up and comer Lorenz Larkin and top fighter Ronaldo Souza.

Kenny Robertson vs. Ildemar Alcantara

Nickname: None | Marajo

Height: 5'10 | 6'2

Age: 30 | 31

MMA Record (UFC): 13-3 (2-3) | 20-6 (3-1)

Arm Length: 74 in. | 78 in.

Team: Central Illnois Combat Club | Marajo Brothers Team

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Robertson is replacing Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Preview: Robertson is coming off a win over Thiago Perpetuo by submission at UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson 2 (March 23, 2014). Alcantara is coming off a win over Albert Tumenov by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi (February 15, 2014).

Predictions: Alcantara. Alcantara is a massive welterweight at 6'2 and once competed at Light Heavyweight. He has a big reach for a welterweight and four inch reach advantage against Robertson. He has a lot of advantages over Robertson. He's has better takedown defense and takedown accuracy than Robertson. His striking defense is better. He's very skilled with submissions as he's able to get rear-naked chokes, armbars, and kneebars. He's never been submitted in his career and the two times he lost by TKO were in bigger divisions. On top of that, one was by leg kicks and not because he was knocked out. The other was against heavyweight Geronimo dos Santos. These losses were also years ago as well.

Urijah Faber vs. Alex Caceres

Nickname: The California Kid | Bruce Leeroy

Height: 5'6 | 5'9

Age: 35 | 26

MMA Record (UFC): 30-7 (6-3) | 10-5, 1NC (5-3, 1NC)

Arm Length: 69 in. | 70 in.

Team: Team Alpha Male | MMA Lab

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Faber is coming off a loss to Renan Barao by TKO at UFC 169 (February 1, 2014). Caceres is coming off a win over Sergio Pettis by submission at UFC on FOX 11 (January 25, 2014).

Predictions: Faber. Caceres has continued to make improvement since moving to the MMA Lab but you can't predict him beating Faber. Faber is an elite fighter and not only become known for beating just about anyone that's not the champions but he does it very easily. Faber has the whole package as he can strike, he's got great wrestling, very skilled with submissions, good cardio, very strong for a bantamweight, good jiu-jitsu, and good power for a bantamweight. I don't see how Caceres can win this fight. He doesn't have knockout power and Faber doesn't have a bad chin. He's not submitting Faber as Faber has never been submitted in his career and Caceres won't be the first to do it. Finally, Caceres will not beat Faber on points. Faber's better in all areas. He's a better striker than Caceres and is on a whole other level on the ground. If this fight goes to the ground, then Faber will win this. Faber is not only the better grappler but Caceres has suffered multiple losses by submission while Faber has never been submitted. Overall, Caceres has been improving and been successful but this is a huge step up in competition.

Marcus Brimage vs. Russell Doane

Nickname: The Bama Beast | None

Height: 5'4 | 5'7

Age: 29 | Unknown

MMA Record (UFC): 6-2 (3-1) | 13-3 (1-0)

Arm Length: 71 in. | 69.5 in.

Team: American Top Team | Hawaii Elite MMA

Weight Class: Bantamweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Brinage is coming off a loss to Conor McGregor by TKO at UFC on Fuel TV: Mousasi vs. Latifi (April 6, 2013). Doane is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Leandro Issa by technical submission at UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs. Lim (January 4, 2014).

Predictions: Doane. Doane has a lot of advantages going into this fight. He's has the better standup with better striking accuracy and defense than Brimage. His takedown defense is very good and should be difficult to take down. He's also a finisher with eleven of his thirteen wins being finishes. He's got power and he's able to submit opponents. Brimage, on the other hand, has a ton of disadvantages. He's given away a lot of size in this fight so it will be difficult for him to control Doane with grappling especially since Doane has very good takedown defense. Brimage is also coming off fifteen month layoff after he lost to Conor McGregor by TKO in only 67 seconds. He's not much of a finisher as he hasn't shown a lot of power with only two wins by TKO and he's never submitted an opponent. This could also benefit Doane since most of his losses (two) have been by submission.

Uriah Hall vs. Thiago Santos

Nickname: Prime Time | Marreta

Height: 6'0 | 6'0

Age: 29 | 30

MMA Record (UFC): 8-4 (1-2) | 9-2 (1-1)

Arm Length: 80.5 in. | 76 in.

Team: Reign Training Center | Tata Fight Team

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Hall is coming off a win over Chris Leben by TKO at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). Santos is coming off a win over Ronny Markes by TKO at UFC Fight: Shogun vs. Henderson 2 (March 23, 2014).

Predictions: Hall. This fight is one of, if not, the wildcard fight on this show. Hall's positives and negatives are well documented in that he's a very talented fighter but at times lacks a killer instinct that's cost him fights. However, Hall should still take this. He's a devastating striker with scary power. He good with kicks and has a reach advantage which is important since both are primarily strikers. Hall is also the more accurate striker and better defensely. Santos has also been very inconsistent since coming to the UFC. His debut fight against Cezar Ferreira saw him get submitted in less than a minute. His next fight then saw him defeat Ronny Markes by TKO in less than a minute. So while Hall can come off as hit or miss, Santos can too.

Stefan Struve vs. Matt Mitrione

Nickname: Skyscraper | Meathead

Height: 7'0 | 6'3

Age: 26 | 35

MMA Record (UFC): 25-6 (9-4) | 7-3 (7-3)

Arm Length: 84.5 in. | 82 in.

Team: Team Schrijber | Blackzilians

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Struve is coming off a loss to Mark Hunt by TKO at UFC on Fuel TV: Silva vs. Stann (March 3, 2013). Mitrione is coming off a win over Shawn Jordan by KO at UFC The Ultimate Fighter China Finale (March 1, 2014).

Predictions: Struve. Yes, Struve is coming off a sixteen month layoff. Yes, he is coming off a heart condition. However, he could still take this. For one thing Struve has very great Brazilian jiu-jitsu especially for a heavyweight. He's great on top of opponents and even off his back. He can always go to that if necessary. If Branden Schaub can control Mitrione and submit him then Struve can too. Before the Mark Hunt loss and the heart condition, Struve was riding a four fight win streak and considered by fans and some MMA sites to be a Top Ten heavyweight. While he hasn't put everything together, Struve has a lot of skills. Despite not being the most comfortable standing up and having suffered some brutal knockouts, Struve is still a threat standing. He has shown power and can knock fighters out. Probably his most impressive standup performance was against Stipe Miocic who is a very good prospect and a former golden gloves champion yet Struve defeated him by TKO and handed him his first loss. Struve is also tough mentally as he can get dominated in one round and come back the next. He's not the type to fold. Mitirione is not a bad fighter but he's a middle of the pack fighter at best. He's also not great at anything. There's really no area that he's great at that he can take the fight. He's not a great striker or grappler. Mitrione has also gone the distance only two times in his career with the last being nearly three years ago against Cheick Kongo.

Ronda Rousey vs. Alexis Davis

Nickname: Rowdy | Ally-Gator

Height: 5'7 | 5'6

Age: 27 | 29

MMA Record (UFC): 9-0 (3-0) | 16-5 (3-0)

Arm Length: 66 in. | 67 in.

Team: Glendale Fight Club | Cesar Gracie Fight Team

Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship

Preview: Rousey is undefeated with nine wins. Her recent win was over Sara McMann by TKO at UFC 170 (February 22, 2014). Davis was riding a five fight win streak. Her recent win was over Jessica Eye by split decision at UFC 170 (February 22, 2014).

Predictions: Rousey. Rousey is a dominant champion and it's hard to predict against her when she's most of the women in the division. Davis is a good fighter with a very good ground game but Rousey is a big, strong bantamweight with Olympic level judo. Unless Rousey gets careless, it will be difficult to for Davis to submit Rousey. Rousey has obviously been working on her striking as she's shown in her last two fights to show she's more than a one trick pony. Davis has never been submitted before but that hasn't stopped Rousey since she became the first to submit Miesha Tate and nearly broke her arm off. Even when Rousey comes off as the predictable one trick pony, she's still proven she's capable of pulling off her trick.

Chris Weidman vs. Lyoto Machida

Nickname: The All-American | The Dragon

Height: 6'2 | 6'1

Age: 30 | 36

MMA Record (UFC): 11-0 (7-0) | 21-4 (13-4)

Arm Length: 78 in. | 74 in.

Team: Serra-Longo Fight Team | Black House

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Middleweight Championship

Preview: Weidman is undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Anderson Silva by TKO at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). Machida is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Gegard Mousasi by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi (February 15, 2014).

Predictions: Machida. Machida has mostly been his best against wrestlers. He's usually great in being elusive and preventing wrestlers from grabbing him or striking him and frustrate them to making mistakes. Machida has fought two times in middleweight including a five round fight against Gegard Mousasi so he's used to making the weight and go five rounds without getting tired. Machida also has a lot of knockout power and can score a knockout at anytime. His ground game is very underrated as he has good wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He's able to get back up get off the cage in the clinch. He has very good balance as he has trained in sumo. Weidman is undefeated but Machida has gone through this before. He derailed the Sokoudjou hype train as he defeated Sokoudjou in Sokoudjou's UFC debut while Sokoudjou was riding high with big wins over Little Nog and Ricardo Arona. He's also handed Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans their first losses in spectacular fashion back to back.

Monday, June 30, 2014

WSOF 11 Review

WSOF 11 Predictions

June 23, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Cody Bollinger vs. Pablo Alfonso

Nickname: Bam Bam | The Hurricane

Height: 5'10 | 5'8

Age: 23 | 31

MMA Record (WSOF): 15-3, 1NC (1-0) | 9-6 (1-0)

Arm Length: 67 in. | 69 in.

Team: Joe Stevenson's Cobra Kai | MMA Masters

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Bollinger is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Tyson Nam by unanimous decision at WSOF 8 (January 18, 2014). Alfonso is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Miguel Torres by unanimous decision at WSOF 6 (October 26, 2013).

Prediction: Bollinger. Bollinger has more going for him. He has an even amount of knockout, submission, and decision wins so he should be comfortable no matter where the fight goes. He's faced tough competition in the past including Din Thomas, Shahbulat Shamhalaev, and Tyson Nam. Alfonso is mostly a submission grappler so his strategy shouldn't be hard to figure out for Bollinger. He's only won by knockout or TKO twice so he's not much of a striker or wields a lot of power. Also training with Joe Stevenson and the other trainer should help since Stevenson has been a very successful fighter in the past.

Melvin Guillard vs. Gesias Cavalcante

Nickname: The Young Assassin | JZ

Height: 5'9 | 5'8

Age: 31 | 30

MMA Record (WSOF): 31-13-2, 2NC (1-0) | 18-7-1, 2NC (2-1)

Arm Length: 71 in. | 71 in.

Team: American Top Team | Blackzilians

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Guillard's WSOF debut.

Preview: Guillard is winless in his last two fights (1 loss, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a loss to Michael Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Manuwa (March 8, 2014). Cavalcante is coming off a win over Tyson Griffin by TKO at WSOF 4 (August 10, 2013).

Prediction: Cavalcante. Cavalcante may not be the same elite fighter he once was during his days in K-1 HERO'S but he's still a very talented and consistant fighter. Outside of an injury, you know what to expect from Cavalcante. Guillard is a talented fighter but he's one of the most inconsistant fighters of his generation. Guillard is one of those head cases where he doesn't always show up mentally for fights, gets careless and gets himself hurt, and constantly switches gyms with ATT being the fourth gym Guillard's called home in three years. Guillard is dangerous standing up but his ground game isn't the best. Not only are nine of his thirteen losses by submission but he's been caught and submitted when he's winning fights or out of nowhere only minutes into a fight. Guillard has seen himself time and time again have a fight won only to get caught with something and lose by submission or knockout. Cavalcante has a lot of good skills. He's a very well-rounded fighter with a near equal amount of knockout and submission wins. He's a very good grappler who's won with a variety of submissions including guillotine chokes, kimuras, armbars, and achilles locks. He's also a good striker and can hold his own in the stand up. Cavalcante also has never been submitted and only knocked out once which also including his trips into kickboxing. In his prime, Cavalcante has also shown a lot of dynamite as he's knocked out or TKOed Michihiro Omigawa, Hiroyuki Takaya, Nam Phan, and Vitor Ribeiro in fights that lasted less than a minute.

Jon Fitch vs. Dennis Hallman

Nickname: None | Superman

Height: 6'0 | 5'10

Age: 36 | 38

MMA Record (WSOF): 25-6-1, 1NC (1-1) | 53-14-2, 1NC (0-0)

Arm Length: 74 in. | 72 in.

Team: American Kickboxing Academy | Victory Athletics

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Hallman's WSOF debut. Hallman is replacing Rouismar Palhares, Jake Shields, and Josh Burkman.

Preview: Fitch is coming off a win over Marcelo Alfaya by split decision at WSOF 6 (October 26, 2013). Hallman is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Aleksey Shapovalov by submission at Union of Veterans of Sport: Cup of Champions (December 21, 2013).

Prediction: Fitch. For one thing, Hallman is taking this fight on only three weeks notice which is not a lot of time to prepare a fight especially for a fighter like Fitch. Fitch hasn't looked elite in a long time but he should still take this. In his last fight against Marcelo Afaya, he showed some improved striking which should help him in this fight and he even dropped Afaya. He's a very good wrestler and grinder who is capable of taking fighters down and keeping them down for fifteen minutes. He's also a big welterweight while Hallman is more of a lightweight and hasn't competed in Welterweight in a long time. Hallman is also a grappler and has won most of his fights by submission but Fitch is well known for his submission defense. Even the highly decorated grappler Demian Maia couldn't submit him in fifteen minutes despite trying. While Fitch has lost to Josh Burkman last year by technical submission, Burkman rocked him before the guillotine choke. The problem for Hallman is he doesn't have the power Burkman has and probably won't be able to stun him like Burkman.

Justin Gaethje vs. Nick Newell

Nickname: None | Notorious

Height: 5'11 | 5'10

Age: 25 | 28

MMA Record (WSOF): 11-0 (4-0) | 11-0 (2-0)

Arm Length: 70 in. | 74 in.

Team: Grudge Training Center | Fighting Arts Academy

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: For the WSOF Lightweight Championship

Preview: Gaethje is undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Rich Patishnock by TKO at WSOF 8 (January 18, 2014). Newell is undefeated with eleven wins Sabah Fadai by submission at WSOF 7 (December 7, 2013).

Prediction: Gaethje. Gaethje has a lot of things going for him. He's a very good striker with a ton of power. He's training at Grudge Training Center with Trevor Wittman who is a very good striking coach. He's also a southpaw which could throw Newell off. He's also a decorated wrestler and can be very explosive. Newell is a talented fighter but has a lot of problems going into this fight. For one, he mostly uses his wrestling to get fighters to the ground and submit them. However, Gaethje is a very good wrestler in his own right and is probably the best wrestler he's faced to date. If he can't get the fight to the ground then he'll be in trouble because he's a one armed fighter and it's doubtful he'll outstrike Gaethje. Newell is also not very familiar with long fights. With the exception of one fight, every other fight has not gone beyond the first round. If this fight goes to the second, third, and beyond it's unknown how Newell will perform. Gaethje has also been in big fights as he's main evented shows before and he's faced name fighters like Drew Fickett, JZ Cavalcante, and Dan Lauzon. Newell has done neither. The fact the pressure could be too much is something to consider since he's never main evented a show like WSOF or faced someone the caliber of Gaethje.