UFC 174 Predictions

                                           

UFC 174 Predictions
June 11, 2014
By Ryan Porzl

 

Josh Shockley vs. Jason Saggo

Nickname:                                           None            |         None     
Height:                                                    6'1             |          5'11
Age:                                                          24            |            28
MMA Record (UFC):                     11-2-1 (0-0)     |       9-1 (0-0)  
Arm Length:                                         74 in.          |      Unknown 
Team:                                      Duneland Vale Tudo | Wulfrun MMA
Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes: Both Shockley and Saggo's UFC debuts

Preview: Shockley is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Micah Miller by unanimous decision at HFC 16 (June 1, 2013). Saggo is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Stephen Beaumont by submission at AFC 19 (July 5, 2013).

Predictions: Shockley. This is one of these fights where I don't know about either fighter and it's hard to find much information. Shockley seems like the best pick. He's a big lightweight at 6'1. He's got a very good reach for a lightweight and if he knows how to use it then he could keep Saggo at bay. He's faced tougher competition by defeating Micah Miller who is a former Ultimate Fighter contestant, Taichi Palace title contender, and DREAM grand prix participant. He's also faced former two time Bellator tournament runner up Toby Imada. He's also the more well-rounded as he's scored five submission victories and three knockouts. Saggo is a grappler so Shockley should know what to prepare for.

Roland Delorme vs. Michinori Tanaka

Nickname:                                     Stunning         |            None
Height:                                                5'9              |              5'5
Age:                                                      30             |               23
MMA Record (UFC):         9-2, 1NC (3-1, 1NC) |         9-0 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                      71 in.          |             65 in.
Team:                                               WAMMA     | Reversal Gym Yokohama Ground Slam
Weight Class:                                     Bantamweight (135 pounds)                          

Notes: Tanaka's UFC debut

Preview: Delorme is coming off a loss to Alex Caceres by split decision at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Tanaka is undefeated with nine wins. His recent win was over Kyle Aguon by unanimous decision at PXC 40 (October 25, 2013).

Predictions: Delorme. Both fighters are mostly grapplers but Delorme is way bigger than Tanaka. If he gets this fight to the ground, he can make this miserable for Tanaka as Tanaka will have a big opponent on top of him. Delorme has used the rear naked choke to get most of his submission victories. Being so tall, it should allow him to figure four his legs should he attempt it and keep Tanaka in position. If he's on top while attempting the choke, this could also help him since he's bigger, it could tire Tanaka out by having Delorme on top of him. Delorme has also gotten two wins by TKO so he's not just a grappler and with a six inch reach advantage, he should be the better standup fighter. Tanaka has also never competed in the United States so it's unknown how he'll perform. He may get nervous or suffer from jet lag.
 

Kajan Johnson vs. Tae Hyun Bang

Nickname:                                        Ragin'            |          Macho
Height:                                                5'11             |             5'9
Age:                                                      30               |             31
MMA Record (UFC):                     19-11-1 (0-0) |       16-8 (0-1)
Arm Length:                                       74 in.           |          71 in.
Team:                                                Tristar Gym   |     CMA Korea
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)                         

Notes: Johnson's UFC debut.

Preview: Johnson is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Richie Whitson by submission at MFC 31 (October 7, 2011). Bang is coming off a loss to Mairbek Taisumov by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs. Lim (January 4, 2014).

Predictions: Johnson. Bang comes off as a one dimensional fighter as he seems to be mostly just a striker. Johnson has had his share of knockout and submission victories. Bang's takedown defense isn't that good so Johnson shouldn't have a hard time getting the fight to the ground. Since Bang is mostly a striker with no submission wins, he may come off as predictable and Johnson shouldn't have to worry about Bang going for takedowns. Call it a coincidence, but two submission holds that Johnson has used to the most to win fights by submission are the rear-naked choke and the armbar. Bang has lost by submission twice and those two holds are the holds he's submitted to. While Johnson hasn't had an official MMA fight in nearly three years, he competed on the Ultimate Fighter and had two exhibition bouts not too long ago so he shouldn't have too much rust.
 

Yves Jabouin vs. Mike Easton

Nickname:                                           Tiger            |     The Hulk
Height:                                                   5'6              |         5'6
Age:                                                         35             |          30
MMA Record (UFC):                       19-9 (4-3)      |     13-4 (3-3)
Arm Length:                                        68 in.           |       70 in.
Team:                                                Tristar Gym    |  Alliance MMA
Weight Class:                                     Bantamweight (135 pounds)                       

Notes:

Preview: Jabouin is coming off a loss to Eddie Wineland by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson (January 25, 2014). Easton is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to T.J. Dillashaw by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014).

Predictions: Easton. Jabouin is more of a striker with almost all of his wins coming by way of knockout. However, he's also prone to getting knocked out as most of his losses have come by knockout and he was knocked out in two of his last three fights. Easton is the more well-rounded fighter with black belts in tae kwon do and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He's got a better chin with only one loss by TKO and that was a corner stoppage due to injury. He's never been submitted and shouldn't worry about that since Jabouin doesn't have many submission wins. Despite being on a three fight losing streak, Easton has had very hard opposition including top ten bantamweight Raphael Assuncao, Brad Pickett, and the new bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw in Dillashaw's last fight before he upset Renan Barao for the bantamweight title.

Elizabeth Phillips vs. Valerie Letourneau

Nickname:                                       None             |           Trouble
Height:                                               5'6               |              5'9
Age:                                               Unknown         |               31
MMA Record (UFC):                    4-1 (0-0)        |           5-3 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                  Unknown        |         Unknown
Team:                                               Sikjitsu         |   American Top Team
Weight Class:                              Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)                         

Notes: Both Dudieva and Letourneau's UFC debuts. Letourneau is replacing Germaine de Randamie. Phillips is replacing Milana Dudieva.

Preview: Phillips is riding a four fight win streak. Her recent win was over Katie Howard by unanimous decision at Conquest of the Cage (May 30, 2014). Letourneau is coming off a win over Jordan Moore by TKO at Absolute FC 20 (May 16, 2014).

Predictions: Letourneau. This is the wild card for me. I'll be honest, I have no idea who these two are or how they fight. Both are replacements and both are taking this fight on short notice. That said, I'll go with Letourneau. Phillips is taking this fight on a weeks notice which isn't anywhere near enough time to prepare for a fight. She also just fought less than two weeks ago in a fight where she went a full fifteen minutes. So she trained for that fight, fought fifteen minutes, will go right back to training, and fight again immediately. That may be too much. I also don't know her reach and never heard of her training team so I don't know who she's training with or her coaches. Letourneau is coming off a fight too but her's only lasted 38 seconds and not fifteen minutes. She trains out of American Top Team and they have great coaches and sparring partners. While this was early in her career, she has faced harder opponents as two of her losses are to Sarah Kaufman and Alexis Davis.

 

Daniel Sarafian vs. Kiichi Kunimoto

Nickname:                                       None              |        Strasser
Height:                                               5'9                |          5'10
Age:                                                    31                 |           33
MMA Record (UFC):                    8-4 (1-2)         | 16-5-2, 1NC (1-0)
Arm Length:                                    73 in.             |         73 in.
Team:                                           Damien Maia JJ | Cobra Kai MMA Dojo
Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)                          

Notes:

Preview: Sarafian is coming off a loss to Cezar Ferreira by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013). Kunimoto is riding a fight fight win streak. His recent win was over Luiz Dutra Jr. by disqualification at UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs. Lim (January 4, 2014).

Predictions: Sarafian. Once again, I'm not sure about either fighter but I'll take Sarafian. Sarafian is a good grappler with almost all of his wins by submission. He trains with Demian Maia who is of the best jiu-jitsu grapplers in MMA today. He also has won honors in BJJ. Despite mostly being a grappler Sarafian has won in amateur boxing so he should be able to know how to strike. He's also explosive with good ground n' pound. To my knowledge, Kunimoto has never competed in the United States so jet lag can be an issue. He has been submitted before which could benefit Sarafian as he is a grappler.

Ryan Jimmo vs. Ovince St. Preux

Nickname:                                       Big Deal      |           OSP
Height:                                                  6'1           |            6'3
Age:                                                       32           |             31
MMA Record (UFC):                    19-3 (2-2)     |       15-5 (3-0)
Arm Length:                                      72 in.         |          80 in.
Team:                                               Blackzilians | Knoxville MMA
Weight Class:                                 Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)                            

Notes:

Preview: Jimmo is coming off a win over Sean O'Connell by KO at UFC The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale: Bisping vs. Kennedy (April 16, 2014). St. Preux is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Nikita Krylov by submission at UFC 171 (March 15, 2014).

Predictions: Jimmo. Say what you will about Jimmo and his style but it's effective. He's very good on the ground and knows how to grind opponents for fifteen minutes or more. On the ground, he's very good at being able to keep opponents to the ground and stay on them. I know it was a couple of years ago, but OSP struggled with Mousasi on the ground then Jimmo should be able to control him. Despite being known for his grinding style, Jimmo can strike and packs a lot of power. He's a multi-time Karate champion so he is comfortable standing up. When Jimmo let's his hands and feet go, he can get some highlight reel knockouts or knockdown including his recent knockout over Sean O'Connell, the eight second knockout over Anthony Perosh, and the head kick that nearly finished James Te-Huna.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Brendan Schaub

Nickname:                                    The Pit Bull      |       The Hybrid
Height:                                                6'4              |            6'4
Age:                                                      35              |            31
MMA Record (UFC):            21-10, 1NC (10-4) |       10-3 (6-3)
Arm Length:                                     77 in.            |         78 in.
Team:                                          Jackson's MMA |  Grudge Training Center
Weight Class:                                 Heavyweight (265 pounds)                         

Notes: Arlovski's first UFC fight since UFC 82 (March 1, 2008).

Preview: Arlovski is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Andreas Kraniotakes by TKO at Fight Nights: Battle on Nyamiha (November 29, 2013). Schaub is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Matt Mitrone by submission at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013).

Predictions: Arlovski. This one can be interesting since it mostly can boil down to who lands that punch first. Arlovski should have the tools to pull in off. He's a very good striker who's hand speed is well known. Despite being known for a glass jaw, Arlovski hasn't been knocked out since his loss to Sergei Kharitonov back in February 2011. He has been dropped but survived and continued fighting. On the other hand, Schaub has not only been knocked out many times but brutally. He's the type of fighter that if he gets hit hard, he doesn't get dropped but knocked out cold. Another thing is Schaub has been trying to change his style to grappling and he's been successful against Lavar Johnson and Matt Mitrone but Arlovski is light years better than them even on his worse day. Arlovski is also no stranger to ground fighter as he faced Devin Cole at the first WSOF event less than two years ago. Cole was a former all-american wrestler and he couldn't take Arlovski down or keep him in the clinch. Arlovski is not a turtle on his back like Johnson can be and he's never been submitted in his career so Schaub may not be able to submit him like Mitrone.

Ryan Bader vs. Rafael Cavalcante

Nickname:                                       Darth         |         Feijao
Height:                                               6'2           |            6'1
Age:                                                     31           |            34
MMA Record (UFC):                   16-4 (9-4)    |    12-4, 1NC (1-1)
Arm Length:                                    74 in,        |          74 in.
Team:                                Power MMA Team |  Team Nogueira
Weight Class:                              Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)                          

Notes:

Preview: Bader is coming off a win over Anthony Perosh by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013). Cavalcante is coming off a win over Igor Pokrajac by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson (November 9, 2013).

Predictions: Cavalcante. Cavalcante is the better striker with better accuracy and has a lot of power with all but one of his wins coming by way of knockout. His only win that didn't come by knockout was by submission but that was due to punches. Cavalcante also has very good takedown defense and has dealt with wrestlers when he fought Yoel Romero in Strikeforce a few years ago. Bader is prone to get knocked out or at least rocked. He was a victim of a highlight reel knockout from Machida and was knocked out in two minutes by Glover Teixeira despite rocking him early. Even in the Ortiz fight, he got hurt with a punch before submitting to a guillotine choke. Bader is a very good wrestler but Cavalcante has faced wrestlers before like Muhammed Lawal and Yoel Romero. 

Rory MacDonald vs. Tyron Woodley

Nickname:                                     Ares                    |   The Chosen One
Height:                                            6'0                     |             5'9
Age:                                                  24                     |             32
MMA Record (UFC):                 16-2 (7-2)             |       13-2 (3-1)
Arm Length:                                  76.5 in.               |           74 in.
Team:                                           Tristar Gym          |  American Top Team
Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)                          

Notes:

Preview: MacDonald is coming off a win over Demian Maia by unanimous decision at UFC 170 (February 22, 2014). Woodley is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Carlos Condit by TKO at UFC 171 (March 15, 2014).

Predictions: MacDonald. MacDonald has some good advantages over Woodley. He's much taller and he has a 2.5 inch reach advantage. He knows how to use his reach and is a good striker. He's very good on the ground and has submission skills (though he hasn't won a fight by submission in years). He's got a good gas tank and is capable of going fifteen minutes without tiring. He's got great submission defense as he's never been submitted. He's also a smart fighter as he'll stick to game plans and won't get careless and reckless. He's a fighter who has his eyes on the prize. He's also, for the most part, consistent. Woodley has become an elite welterweight in a short period but he does have some glaring weaknesses. Despite having great skills that could make him a champion, he's not always consistent. One fight can see him pull the trigger and knock fighters out in brutal fashion while the next could see him become gun shy and grind opponents. His cardio is another issue as he showed in the Condit fight. While he was winning the fight before the Condit injury, he did seem to get tired by the second round. Woodley is a muscular welterweight which can result in him burning energy trying to get oxygen to the muscles.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ali Bagautinov

Nickname:                                      Mighty Mouse     |     Puncher King
Height:                                                     5'3               |            5'4
Age:                                                           27               |            28
MMA Record (UFC):                       19-2 (7-1-1)      |        13-2 (3-0)
Arm Length:                                           66 in.           |          65.5 in.
Team:                                           AMC Pankration    |  Fight Nights Team
Weight Class:                                       Flyweight (125 pounds)                       

Notes: For the UFC Flyweight Championship

Preview: Johnson is unbeaten in six fights (5 wins, 1 draw). His recent win was over Joseph Benavidez by KO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2013). Bagautinov is riding an eleven fight win streak. His recent win was over John Linker by unanimous decision at UFC 169 (February 1, 2014).

Predictions: Johnson. Johnson is the best flyweight in the world and has a skill set that can frustrate any fighter. He's got good striking, good wrestling, and is very fast. His speed is something that fighters have yet to really figure out how to neutralize. Bagautinov has knockout power and submission skills but none of that matters if he can't catch Johnson. Johnson has also shown a killer instinct in his recent fights by submitting John Moraga and knocking out Joseph Benavidez in less than two minutes. By accomplishing these achievements, Johnson became the first to submit Moraga and knock out Benavidez. Bagautinov has never been finished in his career but Johnson has proven he's capable of being the first to finish fighters. The big thing that helps Johnson is the fact that Bagautinov has never fought beyond the third round. He has never fought a full five rounds. This could decide the fight as Johnson's chances for winning increase after every round. Bagautinov probably doesn't know how to pace himself for five rounds and could get tired. This was one of the things that benefited Johnson against John Dodson as Dodson never fought a five round fight before that and started to fade by the fourth round.