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UFC 169 Predictions
UFC 169
Predictions
January
31, 2014
By Ryan
Porzl
Neil
Magny vs. Gasan Umalatov
Nickname: None | Cobra
Height: 6'3 | 5'11
Age: 26 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 8-3 (1-2) | 14-2-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 81 in. | Unknown
Team: Grudge Training Center | Fight Nights
Team
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Umalatov's UFC debut
Preview:
Magny's riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Seth
Baczynski by unanimous decision at UFC Fight For The Troops 3
(November 6, 2013). Umalatov is coming off a win over Gregor Herb at
Fight Nights – Battle of Moscow 12 (June 20, 2013).
Predictions:
Umalatov. Umalatov is a grappling champion and grappling is Magny's
weakness as he's lost most of his fights by submission. Meanwhile,
Umalatov has won most of his fights by submission so this can be a
very good fight for Umalatov stylistically. It should also be pointed
out that not only has Umalatov not been finished in his career yet
but he hasn't even lost a fight by unanimous decision. His two losses
are by very close split decisions so not only will Magny have a hard
time putting him away but he'll have a hard time beating him
decisively.
Tony
Martin vs. Rashid Magomedov
Nickname: None | Highlander
Height: 6'1 | 5'9
Age: 24 | 29
MMA
Record (UFC): 8-0 (0-0) | 15-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 73 in. | 69 in.
Team: Unknown | Goretz MMA
Weight
Class: Lightweight (169 pounds)
Notes:
Both Martin and Magomedov's UFC debuts.
Preview:
Martin is undefeated with eight wins. His recent win was over Thomas
Gifford by submission at 3RT 4 (September 14, 2013). Magomedov is
riding an eight fight win streak. His recent win was over Alexander
Yakovlev by unanimous decision at M-1 Challenge 35 (November 15,
2012).
Predictions:
Magomedov. Magomedov looks like he has the tools to pull it off. He's
got a lot of knockout power. He's also a very good striker as he's a
master in sports in both boxing and hand-to-hand combat. Martin is
pretty one-dimensional as he's most a grappler who has never won a
fight by knockout. Magomedov is also a national master of sports in
combat sambo so he should be able to hold his own. If Magomedov can
keep the fight standing then the fight is his as can either win by
knockout or pick Martin apart and score points. While Martin is
undefeated, Magomedov has never been finished and his only loss to
date is a very close split decision to Frodo Khasbulaev who is now
one of the top featherweights in the world as he's a former
tournament winner in Bellator.
Clint
Hester vs. Andy Enz
Nickname: Headbussa | Tank
Mode
Height: 6'2 | 6'2
Age: 27 | 22
MMA
Record (UFC): 9-3 (2-0) | 7-0 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 76.5 in. | Unknown
Team: X3 Sports | Gracie Barra Alaska
Weight
Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)
Notes:
Enz's UFC Debut
Preview:
Hester is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over
Dylan Andrews by TKO at UFC on FOX: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7,
2013). Enz is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over
Mike Fannon at AFC 101 (September 13, 2013).
Predictions:
Hester. Hester is a good striker with a boxing background and a 76.5
in. reach. He has good takedown defense and if he can prevent the
takedowns then he'll win as Enz is one-dimensional grappler. Given
his reach, Hester can play is safe and pick apart Enz from the
outside as Enz isn't a striker so he shouldn't worry about Enz
knocking him out.
Al
Iaquinta vs. Kevin Lee
Nickname: Raging | The
Mo-Town Phenom
Height: 5'9 | 5'9
Age: 26 | 21
MMA
Record (UFC): 7-2-1 (2-1) | 7-0 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 70 in. | Unknown
Team: Serra-Longo Fight Team | Unknown
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Lee's UFC debut.
Preview:
Iaquinta is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over
Piotr Hallmann by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs.
Munoz (October 26, 2013). Lee is undefeated with seven fights. His
recent win was over Eric Moon by submission at TWC 20 (November 16,
2013).
Predictions:
Inquinta. Lee is one-dimensional as he's more of a grappler. Iaquinta
has very good takedown defense and if Lee can't take him down then he
can't win. Iaquinta has good ground skills and is a good striker. He
also trains at a great gym in Serra-Longo Fight Team while I don't
even know where Lee trains so it's hard to get an idea on the guy.
Because I don't know where he's training, I don't know who his
coaches or sparring partners are. Iaquinta and the Serra-Longo Fight
Team have good track records and seem like a safe bet.
Nick
Catone vs. Tom Watson
Nickname: The Jersey Devil | Kong
Height: 6'0 | 6'1
Age: 32 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 9-4 (3-4) | 16-6 (1-2)
Arm
Length: 72.5 in. | 73
in.
Team: Nick Catone MMA Academy | Jackson's MMA
Weight
Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Catone is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to TJ
Waldburger by submission at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 16 (December 16,
2012). Watson is coming off a loss to Thales Leites by unanimous
decision at UFC 163 (August 3, 2013).
Predictions:
Catone hasn't fought in over a year but it may not matter. Watson is
a good fighter and has good trainers but for some reason, he hasn't
been able to put it together in the UFC. He lost his debut fight even
though it was close, he nearly got finished by Nedkov before winning,
and he got grinded to a decision by Thales Leites. Watson has not
been able to show his best since coming into the UFC. Catone is also
the more well-rounded by winning an equal amount of fights by
knockout, submission, and decision. Watson is one of those fighters
that you know what they will be going for in this case the knockout.
Chris
Cariaso vs. Danny Martinez
Nickname: Kamikaze | The
Gremlin
Height: 5'3 | 5'6
Age: 32 | 28
MMA
Record (UFC): 15-5 (5-3) | 16-4 (0-0)
Arm
Length: 64.5 in. | 66
in.
Team: Fight & Fitness | Alliance MMA
Weight
Class: Flyweight (125 pounds)
Notes:
Marinez's UFC debut.
Preview:
Cariaso is coming off a win over Iliarde Santos by TKO at UFC Fight
Night: Maia vs. Shields (October 9, 2013). Martinez is riding a four
fight win streak. His recent win was over Ian Dela Cuesta by
unanimous decision at Coalition of Combat – Free For All (December
1, 2012)
Predictions:
Martinez. Martinez is a good striker with power and good defense. His
ground game is decent as he has some submission wins and good
defense. He's never been finished in his MMA career to date and
Cariaso is not known as a finisher which means Cariaso will likely
have to win by points which is something that can be difficult for a
fighter who is fighting a heavy handed opponent. Martinez hasn't
fought in fourteen months but it may not matter because he did fight
an exhibition fight to qualify for the Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey
vs. Team Tate and while he lost, he did have some cage time. Martinez
is also training out of the Alliance MMA gym which is an elite gym
and will give him better sparring partners to prepare.
John
Makdessi vs. Alan Patrick
Nickname: The Bull | Nuguette
Height: 5'9 | 5'11
Age: 28 | 30
MMA
Record (UFC): 12-2 (5-2) | 11-0 (1-0)
Arm
Length: 68 in. | Unknown
Team: Tristar Gym | X-Gym
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Makdessi is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over
Renee Forte by KO at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Patrick is
undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Garett Whiteley
by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields (October 9, 2013).
Predictions:
Makdessi. Makdessi is probably the biggest challenge to date for
Patrick and one he may not be ready for. Makessi has a lot of skill
as he is a black belt in Shotokan Karate and taekwondo. He also
trains out of Tristar Gym which is one of the best gyms in the world.
Patrick is mostly a striker but Makdessi has been fighting strikers
with a lot of power in his recent fights including Daron Cruickshank
and Sam Stout. He also has a good chin as he's never been knocked out
and has very good takedown defense in case Patrick tries to go for a
takedown either to surprise Makdessi or if he gets clipped.
Jamie
Varner vs. Abel Trujillo
Nickname: C-4 | Killa
Height: 5'8 | 5'8
Age: 29 | 30
MMA
Record (UFC): 21-8-1, 2NC (3-3) | 11-5, 1NC (2-1, 1NC)
Arm
Length: 72 in. | 70 in.
Team: Arizona Combat Sports | Blackzilians
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Varner is replacing Bobby Green
Preview:
Varner is coming off a loss to Gleison Tibau by split decision at UFC
164 (August 31, 2013). Trujillo is coming off a win over Roger
Bowling by TKO at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14,
2013).
Predictions:
Trujillo. Trujillo really looked good in his last fight against Roger
Bowling. Like the rest of the Blackzilians, Trujillo looks like he's
putting things together in the last few months. Both guys are pretty
well-rounded but Trujillo has made improvements in his striking and
has good accuracy in takedowns. Trujillo is also pretty consistent
and has a good track record. His only loss in the last three years
has been to Khabib Nurmagomedov who is one of UFC's brightest
prospects.
John
Linker vs. Ali Bagautinov
Nickname: Hands of Stone | Puncher King
Height: 5'2 | 5'4
Age: 24 | 28
MMA
Record (UFC): 23-6 (4-1) | 12-2 (2-0)
Arm
Length: 67 in. | 65
in.
Team: EMPORIUM | Fight Nights
Team
Weight
Class: Flyweight (125 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Linker is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over
Phil Harris by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Munoz (October 26,
2013). Bagautinov is currently riding a ten fight win streak. His
recent win was over Tim Elliot by unanimous decision at UFC 167
(November 16, 2013).
Predictions:
Bagautinov. Bagautinov has a lot more tools to use as he's won
competitions in hand-to-hand combat, combat sambo, greco-roman
wrestling, and freestyle wrestling. He's more well-rounded as he's
nearly even in knockout and submission while Linker is more
predictable as he'll go for knockouts. Linker also has had a history
of missing weight and even if he's on the right diet, there's no
guarantee his cardio won't be effected. Bagauntinov is also hard to
finish as he's never been knocked out or submitted in his career.
It's definitely possible that with Linker's weight issues that if
Bagauntinov can take him to the deep end and get him tired. The
longer the fight goes, the better Bagauntinov's chances of winning
get. Another good reason is the fact that Baganuntinov is an expert
in hand-to-hand combat and sambo which is hard to prepare for in
Brazil or the United States.
Frank
Mir vs. Alistair Overeem
Nickname: None | The Reem
Height: 6'3 | 6'4
Age: 34 | 33
MMA
Record (UFC): 16-8 (14-8) | 36-13, 1NC (1-2)
Arm
Length: 79 in. | 80 in.
Team: Jackson's MMA | Blackzilians
Weight
Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Mir is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to
Josh Barnett by TKO at UFC 164 (August 31, 2013). Overeem is riding a
two fight losing losing streak. His recent loss was to Travis Browne
by KO at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013).
Predictions:
Overeem. Overeem's biggest weakness in 2013 was him pulling defeat
from the jaws of victory. With his career on the line, Overeem will
likely not take Mir lightly and will have the killer instinct. Mir is
a guy who is clearly at the end of the line. Despite attempts to
reinvent himself at Jackson's, it didn't work and his weakness are
too glaring. He doesn't have a good chin as nearly all of his losses
have come by knockout. As if that's not bad enough, Overeem has a
kickboxing background being a former K-1 World Grand Prix winner and
he hits very hit. All in all, it won't take much for the Reem to put
the lights out on Mir. Mir also struggles with fighters who can
grapple him into the fence and wear him down. Overeem is an
underrated grappler and very strong so he could possibly pin Mir to
the cage and work him over. Finally, Overeem doesn't have the best
jaw for a heavyweight but it won't matter. Mir is not a striker and
isn't known for knockout power except for his knockout of Cro Cop
years ago. Overeem shouldn't have to worry too much of a knockout
because Mir doesn't have the power nor the stand up skills that
Antonio Silva and Travis Browne have.
Jose
Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas
Nickname: Scarface | The Bully
Height: 5'7 | 5'8
Age: 27 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 23-1 (5-1) | 13-2 (4-0)
Arm
Length: 70 in. | 70 in.
Team: Nova Uniao | MMA
Masters and Team Top Notch
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
For the UFC Featherweight Championship
Preview:
Aldo is riding a sixteen fight win streak. His recent win was over
Chan Sung Jung by TKO at UFC 163 (August 3, 2013). Lamas is riding a
four fight win streak. His recent win was over Erik Koch by TKO at
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson (January 26, 2013).
Predictions:
Aldo. Aldo is mostly a fighter that goes for the knockout and both of
Lamas' losses have come by knockout. If Danny Castillo and Yuri
Alcantara can knock out Lamas then Aldo can. Lamas has also never
fought a fight that went five rounds. In fact, only one of Lamas'
fights have ended after Round 3 and that was the second fight of his
career which was nearly six years ago. If the fight goes to the
championship rounds then Aldo may have the advantage. It wouldn't be
the first time since that was one of the reasons why John Dodson lost
to Demetrious Johnson because he wasn't used to five round fights
while Johnson was. Lamas is also coming off a year layoff. While
that's not the end of the world and I predicted a few guys would win
despite year-long layoffs, Jose Aldo is one of the pound-for-pound
best fighters in the world. He's not the fighter you want to fight
after sitting out for so long. When a fighter is going to fight
someone like Aldo, they need to get as close to perfection as they
can get.
Renan
Pegado vs. Urijah Faber
Nickname: Barao | The
California Kid
Height: 5'7 | 5'6
Age: 26 | 34
MMA
Record (UFC): 31-1, 1NC (6-0) | 30-6 (6-1)
Arm
Length: 70 in. | 69 in.
Team: Nova Uniao | Team
Alpha Male
Weight
Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Notes:
For the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Faber is replacing Dominick
Cruz.
Preview:
Barao is unbeaten in 32 fights (31 wins, one no contest). His recent
win was over Eddie Wineland by TKO at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013).
Faber is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over
Michael McDonald by submission at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
(December 14, 2013).
Predictions:
Barao. Barao has been a beast long before he got to the UFC and has
been showing since his arrival. Barao has good striking, great
knockout power, great chin, great submissions, and great submission
defense. He's also never been knocked out and never been submitted.
Barao also has great speed with his movements, striking, and even
jumping onto opponents for submissions. Faber has a lot going against
him. He's taken this fight on short notice as he's barely had a
month's notice to prepare which is no where near enough against an
opponent like Barao. Faber just fought only a month and a half ago
and while he didn't take much damage, that's still may be too soon to
get back in there. Worse of all is the fact that this will be Faber's
fifth fight in the past 12 months (dating back to the Ivan Menjivar
fight on February 23, 2013). Usually when fighters fight that much in
a year it comes back to haunt them. When Mirko Cro Cop fought five
times in 2005 he had cardio issues in his fights with Fedor
Emelianenko, Josh Barnett, and Mark Hunt which most people believe
cause he was too active. Same with Donald Cerrone as he fought five
times in 2011 and while he looked great in his first four fights, he
ultimately came up short in his fifth fight against Nate Diaz. That
could happen with Faber as he'll be fighting five times in 12 months
and hasn't given himself time off. Barao has also beaten Faber before
and know how to beat him. He knows leg kicks are very useful as
that's what he and his teammate Jose Aldo used to beat Faber. Finally
another reason is the recent turn of events in Team Alpha Male. For
most of 2013, most people (myself included) were very impressed by
the supposed evolution in the group since hiring Duane Ludwig. I say
“supposed evolution” because so far we really haven't seen much
outside of improved striking. As far as results go, Alpha Male isn't
any better than they were pre-Ludwig. If anything, it's the same. You
put them against anyone not the world champion then they're world
beaters. But whenever they face the champion, they can't win the big
one. So far the Ludwig era hasn't been any different. They went
unbeaten all year long and looked phenomenal against everyone that
wasn't a champion. Then in December, they once again hit that wall.
First Lance Palmer lost to Georgi Karakhanyan in a fight to determine
the first WSOF Featherweight Champion when he submitted to a
guillotine choke (Alpha Male's signature submission). Then one week
later, Joseph Benavidez challenged Demetrious Johnson for the UFC
Flyweight Title and was knocked out in 2 minutes. Sure Faber has
looked impressive but he's looked impressive every other time he was
climbing the mountain only to lose when he got to the top to face the
champion.
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