April 4, 2019
By Ryan Porzl
Block A
Kento Miyahara
Number of Champion Carnivals: 5 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018)
Pluses: He's the current ace of All Japan, current All Japan wrestler, and never won a Carnival
Minuses: He's the current Triple Crown Champion and need of credible or fresh challengers, and he doesn't need it.
Thoughts: Miyahara is the ace of All Japan and is the current Triple Crown Champion so that alone should make him a favorite to win. Not to mention, the Champion Carnival tournament is one of the few honors in All Japan that still eludes Miyahara outside the GAORA TV Championship (not counting junior honors). All Japan has also spent most of the last decade given the Carnival to outside talent including freelancers (Minoru Suzuki, Jun Akiyama, and Shuji Ishikawa) or wrestlers in other promotions such as Yuji Nagata (New Japan), Daisuke Sekimoto (Big Japan), and Naomichi Marufuji (NOAH). In fact, in this decade alone, only three times has an All Japan wrestler won it in Taiyo Kea (2012), Takao Omori (2014), and Akebono (2015) so All Japan may want to give it to someone who is actually signed to them. Perhaps another reason to consider is should Miyahara win, he'd be one of the few to win the Carnival while Triple Crown Champion and the first to do it in nearly 20 years with Genichiro Tenryu being the last in 2001. Having said all that, Miyahara is probably someone who shouldn't be a favorite given he's now in his fourth Triple Crown and ran through just about everyone so he's in need of either fresh challengers or a former challenger who is credible enough so the Carnival will probably be given to his next challenger. On top of that, Miyahara has long established himself as All Japan's ace so he doesn't need it. One day down the line, it would be nice to see Miyahara get it but at this point, he doesn't need it and won't get it. Miyahara will do excellent but he'll either just miss the finals or be runner up.
Chances of Winning: Decent but not as great as you would think.
Shuji Ishikawa
Number of Champion Carnivals: 2 (2017 and 2018)
Pluses: A top star in All Japan, former Champion Carnival Winner, former Triple Crown Champion, and fresh challenger as he and Miyahara hadn't competed for the Triple Crown in awhile
Minuses: Just won the World Tag Team Championship
Thoughts: Ishikawa has to be one of the favorites to win as he has many reasons to get it. Ishikawa is both a former Champion Carnival winner and Triple Crown Champion so he has credibility and must be a favorite to win. Ishikara signed with All Japan this year so if they want an All Japan wrestler to win then he's a great choice. Ishikawa hasn't wrestled Miyahara in a Triple Crown title match since the August 2017 Sumo Hall match so enough time has gone by to it again and they had great matches so All Japan should know they are capable of having quality matches. The only things that maybe hurt Ishikawa is he and Suwama just regained the World Tag Team Championship so he already has a title and he challenged for the Triple Crown back in August. Still, August was months ago and several title matches happened since then and there have been cases of wrestlers challenging and holding the Triple Crown while World Tag Team Champion. In fact, All Japan has had a habit of belt swopping in the past with a tag team champion winning the Triple Crown while the Triple Crown champion wins the tag titles with a partner.
Chances of Winning: Excellent. One of the favorites
Zeus
Number of Champion Carnivals: 5 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018)
Pluses: A top star in All Japan and former Triple Crown Champion
Minuses: Has wrestled Miyahara in Triple Crown title matches a few times already in the last year
Thoughts: Like Ishikawa, Zeus has to be one of the favorites as he is a main eventer in All Japan and a former Triple Crown Champion. His matches with Miyahara have also been well received with his October title loss getting praise so All Japan knows he works well with Miyahara. A win also sets up for a sort of trilogy as Zeus won the Triple Crown from Miyahara in July and Miyahara regained in October after winning the Royal Road tournament. Plus, Zeus had somewhat of a short reign so a win could set up a trilogy with Zeus regaining the Triple Crown and possibly getting a long run. The only real negative is, as mentioned, Zeus has wrestled two big matches against each other in less than a year so All Japan could want to give it a break.
Chances of Winning: Excellent. One of the favorites
Yuma Aoyagi
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Young up and comer
Minuses: Not in his prime yet, never wrestled for the Triple Crown, and still a midcarder
Thoughts: After missing last year's tournament due to injury, Aoyagi finally makes his Champion Carnival debut. Currently, he is one of All Japan's promising up and comers with a lot of potential and has shown a lot of growth at 23 years old and fours years experience. That being said, Aoyagi is nowhere near ready for a Champion Carnival win as he hasn't hit his prime yet, is not a main eventer, and isn't anywhere close to it. Right now, Aoyagi is still a young midcarder who's biggest success has been a tag team wrestler competing for the All Asia Tag Titles (All Japan's midcard tag belts). Aoyagi hasn't competed for a singles championship in years since he was a junior heavyweight so it's highly doubtful All Japan will throw him in the deep end of the pool now especially with this being his Carnival. Aoyagi could win the Carnival in probably three to four years but for now, no. Aoyagi will probably be like a lot of young guys in these tournaments in he'll probably be near the bottom but still put on gutsy performances showing good fighting spirit.
Chances of Winning: No chance.
Dylan James
Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2018)
Pluses: Young up and comer, former Triple Crown challenger, and hasn't faced Miyahara in nearly a year
Minuses: Still the number 2 foreigner behind Joe Doering
Thoughts: In theory, James shouldn't win this as he's still new having come in a year ago and isn't established as a main eventer. Not to mention, if they give the Carnival to a foreigner, the best bet is Joe Doering as he still is the foreign or gaijin ace. Still, he has a ton of potential and if All Japan wants to move him up the ladder, this will do it. Doering also battled cancer three years ago so they may want to elevate James in case something were to happen. I don't think James will take the Carnival but I wouldn't be surprised if All Japan wanted to get ballsy that maybe they go with James. In the end, I don't think he'll win but wouldn't be surprised if he did. In the least, I see him doing well and probably being one of the rare ones to beat Miyahara in the round robin part.
Chances of Winning: Dark Horse.
Ryoji Sai
Number of Champion Carnivals: 3 (2016, 2017, 2018)
Pluses: Fresh challenger, former Triple Crown contender
Minuses: Not much of a main eventer in All Japan
Thoughts: Sai's got a lot going against him. When he first came to All Japan in 2016, he got a nice push as he placed second in his block in the Champion Carnival and challenged Miyahara for the Triple Crown. Since then, Sai has fallen down the ladder as he hasn't challenged for the Triple Crown since and usually does poorly in tournaments. Perhaps it's because he's not under contract to All Japan but one thing is certain which is All Japan doesn't use him as a top attraction when he appears as he hasn't challenged for the Triple Crown in three years. He has enjoyed titles and challenging for them but it's been for the World Tag Team Championship in the past year. While Sai would be a fresh opponent, I don't see All Japan given him the Carnival since they're not using him as a top singles wrestler. Not to mention, Sai is a good wrestler but if All Japan is going to give the Carnival to an outside talent, it's likely to be Okabayashi or maybe Mashimo who seem to have bigger stock than Sai.
Chances of Winning: Low
Atsushi Aoki
Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2016)
Pluses: Fresh challenger
Minuses: A junior heavyweight and replacement
Thoughts: Aoki is a last minute replacement for the injured Kengo Mashimo. Because of this, Aoki has no shot since they obviously aren't going to give the Carnival to a replacement. More importantly, Aoki is a junior heavyweight which is another minus. I think Aoki will do ok since they won't want a top junior heavyweight to fare poorly but he'll probably be in the middle at best.
Chances of Winning: No chance.
Gianna Valletta
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger
Minuses: Not a main eventer, never challenged for the Triple Crown, and number 3 gaijin behind Joe Doering and Dylan James
Thoughts: Valletta is a good talent, has been around for a year, and has done well in All Japan but he's one of the least likely to win. For one thing, it's doubtful someone like Valletta would win the Carnival in his first shot. Second, Valletta isn't anywhere near the main event and at best is the number three gaijin behind Doering and James so if All Japan gives the Carnival to a gaijin, it'll be one of the them first. Valetta will probably place at the bottom or near it.
Chances of Winning: No chance.
Yuji Okabayashi
Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2012)
Pluses: Fresh challenger, a top star in Big Japan, likely to be the choice if they pick an outsider, and multiple time World Tag Team Champion and All Asia Tag Team Champion
Minuses: Not as big as his partner and former Carnival winner Daisuke Sekimoto
Thoughts: Okabayashi isn't as big as his Strong BJ tag partner and former Champion Carnival winner Daisuke Sekimoto but don't sleep on him. Okabayashi is a former two time World Tag Team Champion and a former two time All Asia Tag Team Champion so he is established in All Japan. He's also one of the top names in Big Japan not only with Sekimoto but he held the BJPW World Strong Heavyweight Championship and for over a year. Okabayashi is also a fresh challenger and someone who All Japan can realistically give the Carnival to this year and be someone they can feed to Miyahara as a challenger. Because of the latter part, I'd say don't count him out.
Chances of Winning: Dark Horse
Block B
Suwama
Number of Champion Carnivals: 13 (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018)
Pluses: Former ace of All Japan and still a top act
Minuses: Suwama vs. Miyahara has been done to death, he just had a title shot
Thoughts: Despite no longer being the ace of All Japan, Suwama is still a top act and should be someone that can be considered a favorite. I also think Suwama will get one more Carnival before he slows down. That being said, Suwama has to be considered extremely unlikely giving he just got a title shot against Miyahara in February and All Japan will not do that match again so soon. Not to mention that despite the matches being classics, Suwama and Miyahara has been done a lot since 2016 in both singles and tag team encounters and the fans are probably getting bored with it. If Suwama didn't have his recent shot, I'd say he have a shot but since he did and the amount of matches with Miyahara, I don't think he has that much of a chance. He'll do good and probably reach middle to the upper part of the block.
Chances of Winning: Slim to none.
Joe Doering
Number of Champion Carnivals: 8 (2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018)
Pluses: Gaijin ace for All Japan, former two time Triple Crown Champion, and former Runner up
Minuses: Had previous battled a brain tumor
Thoughts: Doering has a lot going for him in this tournament as he is a former two time Triple Crown Champion, was a two time runner up in Champion Carnivals, and the top gaijin of All Japan. Doering is capable of putting on great match especially with Miyahara and they haven't had a title match in a year when Miyahara won the title from Doering. It's possible Doering beats Miyahara in the finals to tie it up for a third encounter with the Triple Crown or beats someone else, wins the title, and has a rubber match down the road. I also feel All Japan would want to eventually give Doering the Carnival at some point in his career as he is one of their top stars. Having said all that, I also can't help but wonder if in the back of All Japan's mind if they still worry about the possibility of his brain tumor returning especially at a time when they may put a lot of eggs in his basket. I also wonder if All Japan maybe feels they need to elevate James more just in case which is why I feel James might do better in this.
Chances of Winning: Good
Jake Lee
Number of Champion Carnivals: 2 (2016 and 2017)
Pluses: Up and comer, All Japan wants him to be Miyahara's foil, and enjoying a decent push
Minuses: They may not want to give him the Carnival now, and they may want to save the Miyahara title match.
Thoughts: After missing last year due to injury, Lee returns to the Champion Carnival. Lee is one of those guys not to sleep on for many reasons. One is Lee has been enjoying a decent push this year winning the yearly January 2nd Openweight Battle Royal (yeah, it's a comedy match but given the legends that have won it, it means something) and is coming off winning the All Asia Tag Team Championship. Another is Lee was moving up the ladder before his ACL injury in the summer of 2017 as he was in two Champion Carnivals, made his first challenge of the Triple Crown Championship, and won the World Tag Team Championship. Third is that it's clear All Japan looks at Lee as the Genichiro Tenryu to Miyahara's Jumbo Tsuruta or the Toshiaki Kawada to Miyahara's Mitsuharu Misawa so we could see the next step with Lee going from facing Miyahara to facing him in title matches. It's also possible Lee could even beat Miyahara in the finals. The only reason I don't see him winning is that maybe they don't want to give it to him just yet or maybe want to save the Miyahara title match. If he doesn't win, you can bet Lee should do great and probably could just miss the finals.
Chances of Winning: Dark horse
Yoshitatsu
Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2018)
Pluses: Former Triple Crown challenger, Fresh challenger, and Miyahara's partner
Minuses: Not a main eventer
Thoughts: Yoshitatsu has come a long way since arriving in All Japan a year and a half ago as he's become a World Tag Team Champion and a challenger to the Triple Crown while appearing to have won over some fans who weren't a fan of his late New Japan run. However, Yoshitatsu is a midcarder and most wouldn't buy him as a Champion Carnival winner. He's also not been pushed as a main eventer outside of tag matches with Miyahara. The only thing going for Yoshitatsu is he is both a fresh challenger and the fact he's Miyahara's partner could make things interesting but it's definitely not enough to give him the Carnival. Maybe the YoshiKen partners will meet for the championship one day as they've had really good matches but not now. I see Yoshitatsu being in the middle to near bottom.
Chances of Winning: Slim to none
Joel Redman
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger
Minuses: Never competed in All Japan before, Not a big star
Thoughts: Most fans may remember Redman from the early days of NXT as Oliver Grey and was the inaugural NXT Tag Team Champion along with PAC as British Ambition. Anyway, Redman has the least chance of winning this. Where do I start? He's never competed in All Japan before, he's not a big star of any kind, and I don't know if All Japan has plans to bring him back after this tour. Redman is a fresh challenger but there's plenty of them in this tournament higher up the totem pole. Redman will probably give a good effort but will likely end up near or at the bottom.
Chances of Winning: No chance
Naoya Nomura
Number of Champion Carnivals: 2 (2017 and 2018)
Pluses: Rising up and comer, now a Triple Crown contender, and has history with Miyahara
Minuses: His first Triple Crown title shot was against Miyahara a month ago.
Thoughts: Nomura had just taken a step up with his recent Triple Crown title match, has broken away from Miyahara's NEXTREAM stable while having held the World Tag Team and All Asia Tag Team belts. That being said, I feel like All Japan will wait another 1-3 years before they give Nomura his first Carnival. Perhaps more importantly, he just lost to Miyahara in March so I can't see him at this point in his career losing to Miyahara and then winning the Champion Carnival a month later. I see Nomura doing great but just missing the finals.
Chances of Winning: Slim to none
Daichi Hashimoto
Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2017)
Pluses: Fresh challenger, up and comer, and has done well in All Japan appearances
Minuses: Barely in his prime and not even the biggest Big Japan guy in the tournament
Thoughts: Hashimoto has done good since coming to Big Japan and has done well in his appearances for All Japan as he was a runner up in the 2016 World's Strongest Tag Determination League and last month, was in a four man tournament for the vacant All Asia Tag Team Championship where he went to the finals. Granted I don't know much of Big Japan but I would guess Hashimoto is just barely in his prime and still very young at 26. Not to mention that Hashimoto isn't the biggest name from BJPW to be competing as Okabayashi will be there as well so if they're picking someone from Big Japan then you can bet they'll pick the more established Okabayashi. I see Hashimoto doing well maybe in the middle.
Chances of Winning: Slim to none
Sam Adonis
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger
Minuses: Not a main eventer and not a regular All Japan wrestler
Thoughts: Adonis is the younger brother of Corey Graves and had previous competed for All Japan's 2017 Sumo Hall show and Ultimo Dragon's Lucha Fiesta shows that All Japan sponsored so he's no stranger. Like Redman, Adonis is not a main eventer or a regular for All Japan right now. He's also not appeared much before this so I can't see him going very far. I don't know his status afterwards but I don't think he'll go very far. He should do better than Redman but I don't expect too much.
Chances of Winning: No chance
Takashi Yoshida
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger
Minuses: Not a main eventer (I think) and never competed in All Japan
Thoughts: I must admit I don't follow Dragon Gate and I know nothing of Yoshida so if I'm wrong then I apologize. From what I can tell, I don't give him a chance as he's never even held a singles title in Dragon Gate and seems to be mostly a tag team wrestler. With guys like Okabayashi and even Hashimoto in it, All Japan has probably bigger names to go with if they want an outsider winning it.
Chances of Winning: No chance
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