UFC 179 Predictions

                                 

UFC 179 Predictions

October 23, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Fabricio Camoes vs. Tony Martin

Nickname:                                           Morango       |        None

Height:                                                    5'9              |          6'1

Age:                                                         35              |     Unknown

MMA Record (UFC):                    14-8-1 (1-3-1)   |     12-4 (0-2)

Arm Length:                                         72.5 in.        |        71 in.

Team:                                                Black House    |   American Top Team

Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Martin is replacing Josh Shockley

Preview: Camoes is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Jim Miller by submission at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). Martin is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Beneil Dariush by submission at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. dos Anjos (August 23, 2014).

Prediction: Martin. Martin is the late replacement but I'll still go with him. For one thing, both fighters prefer to win their fights by submission and while Martin is coming off a submission loss, Camoes has been submitted more in his career. Camoes is also getting up there as he's 35 years old and has been fighting on and off for seventeen years. You have to wonder how much gas he has left in his tank. Meanwhile, Camoes is very inactive as his last fight was ten months ago and his fight before that was seventeen months ago. Martin also has some good tools. He's much bigger and can make Camoes miserable if they go to the ground and Martin is on top. He's also very good on the ground as he's good at passing guard, working off his back, and taking an opponents back. While Martin has never officially won a fight by knockout, he has won both of his amateur fights by knockout so he does have power and isn't harmless standing.

Gilbert Burns vs. Christos Giagos

Nickname:                                         Durinho      |      The Spartian

Height:                                                  5'10         |            5'10

Age:                                                        28           |        Unknown

MMA Record (UFC):                       8-0 (1-0)    |         10-2 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                        71 in.       |         Unknown

Team:                                               Blackzilians | Systems Training Center

Weight Class:                                    Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Giagos' UFC debut.

Preview: Burns is undefeated with eight wins. His recent win was over Andreas Stahl by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX 12 (July 26, 2014). Giagos is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Dakota Cochrane by TKO at RFA 17 (August 22, 2014).

Prediction: Burns. I know next to nothing on Giagos. Don't know his age, reach, and I never heard of the gym he trains in. Burns seems like a safe pick. He's very good with defense both striking and takedowns. Burns is well-rounded with three wins by way of knockout and four by way of submission. He's shown to be good at taking opponents backs and catching them with armbars. He's a former world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu so he'll likely have the advantage on the ground. Giagos has also suffered two submission losses so he should avoid the ground at all cost. He has a lot of power and won most of his fights by knockout but Burns has good striking defense so he shouldn't be helpless standing.

Felipe Arantes vs. Andre Fili

Nickname:                                            Sertanejo       |      Touchy

Height:                                                     5'8              |        5'11

Age:                                                           26              |         24

MMA Record (UFC):              16-6-1, 2NC (3-2-1) |    13-2 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                          73 in.           |       74 in.

Team:                                         Macaco Gold Team | Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                  Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Arantes is coming off a win over Maximo Blanco by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi (February 15, 2014). Fili is coming off a loss to Max Holloway by submission at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014).

Prediction: Arantes. Given both men prefer to strike then Arantes may have the advantage since he's likely the better striker as he has a black belt in Muay Thai, is the more accurate striker, and slightly more defensively. Fili comes from Team Alpha Male but he doesn't have a background in wrestling like many of the notable fighters. Another advantage is that Arantes has faced many talented fighters as he's defeated the likes of John Linker and Maximo Blanco while losing to fighters like Iuri Alcantara and Rony Jason. The only notable fighter Fili has faced was Max Holloway and he lost that fight. As far as the ground goes, Fili has the better takedown accuracy while Arantes has the better defense. Another thing with Fili is, he can be dangerous but doesn't always fight smart sometimes.

Scott Jorgensen vs. Wilson Reis

Nickname:                                        Young Guns     |          None

Height:                                                     5'4             |             5'4

Age:                                                           32             |             29

MMA Record (UFC):                         15-9 (4-5)     |        18-5 (2-1)

Arm Length:                                          66 in.          |           65 in.

Team:                                           Twisted Genetiks |        BJJ United

Weight Class:                                        Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Jorgensen is coming off a win over Danny Martinez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Khabilov (June 7, 2014). Reis is coming off a win over Joby Sanchez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. dos Anjos (August 23, 2014).

Prediction: Reis. I don't know what to think about Jorgensen at this point. He's 2-5 since January 2012 and neither win have been against impressive opponents. Danny Martinez is a middle of the road fighter and John Albert has pathetic submission defense. Granted, his losses have been mostly to elite level fighters like Renan Barao, Eddie Wineland, Urijah Faber, and Zach Makovsky while his loss to Jussier Formiga is controversial due to an accidental headbutt but it's still not good. He got dominated with ease against Faber and despite being a favorite against Makovsky, he was soundly defeated. While he has the size of a flyweight, I get the impression that Jorgensen is only there in a desperate attempt to revitalize his career. Reis is also not an easy opponent. He's a former world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and should have the advantage on the ground. Both fighters have won their share of fights by submission but Reis has won more and has never been submitted in his career. Reis has also done well since coming to the UFC as he defeated veteran Ivan Menjivar despite being a late replacement and had a very close fight against Iuri Alcantara. Though mostly a grappler, Reis can box and is capable of doing ground n' pound on the ground.

Yan Cabral vs. Naoyuki Kotani

Nickname:                                        None          |           None

Height:                                               5'11           |            5'8

Age:                                                      31           |             32

MMA Record (UFC):                    11-1 (1-1)    |      33-11-7 (0-3)

Arm Length:                                      73 in.        |           66 in.

Team:                                              Nova Uniao |       Rodeo Style

Weight Class:                                  Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Cabral is coming off a loss to Zak Cummings by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014). Kotani is coming off a loss to Norman Parke by TKO at UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs. Brandao (July 19, 2014).

Prediction: Cabral. Cabral is a very good prospect who hit a speed bump in his recent fight. He should be able to bounce back here. Cabral is a very good grappler with almost every win coming via submission. He's especially very good at passing guard when on the ground as he's won many fights with arm-triangle chokes, armbars, and kimuras. Kotani's takedown defense isn't that good so Cabral should be able to get it to the ground. Cabral has never won by knockout but Kotani has been knocked out six times so his chin isn't good and Cabral also has a good reach advantage. Cabral also has decent accuracy, very good striking defense, and both are better than Kotani. Cabral is also bigger, likely stronger, and shouldn't have a hard time bullying Kotani. Finally, Cabral has never been finished as his only loss is a decision loss.

William Macario vs. Neil Magny

Nickname:                                          Patolino            |      None

Height:                                                   5'11               |        6'3

Age:                                                         23                 |        26

MMA Record (UFC):                        7-1 (1-1)          |    12-3 (5-2)

Arm Length:                                         75 in.             |       81 in.

Team:                                                    Pejor              | Elevation Fight Team

Weight Class:                                      Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Macario is coming off a win over Bobby Voelker by unanimous decision at UFC 168 (December 28, 2013). Magny is riding a four fight win streak. His recent win was over Alex Garcia by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. dos Anjos (August 23, 2014).

Prediction: Macario. There is a big size and reach disadvantage for Macario but he should still take it. He got better striking accuracy by far as well as striking defense. Despite his one submission loss, Macario also has good takedown defense and isn't bad on the ground. Macario also has good Muay Thai and enough power to finish Magny. On the other hand, Magny isn't much of a finisher and will likely have to go fifteen minutes to win.

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush

Nickname:                                          CDF                  |           None

Height:                                                 5'8                    |            5'10

Age:                                                       28                    |             25

MMA Record (UFC):                     11-0 (2-0)            |         8-1 (2-1)

Arm Length:                                      73.5 in.              |           73 in.

Team:                                         James Cooper MMA |     King's MMA

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Ferreira is replacing Alan Patrick

Preview: Ferreira is undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Ramsey Nijem by TKO at UFC 177 (August 30, 2014). Dariush is coming off a win over Tony Martin by submission at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. dos Anjos (August 23, 2014).

Prediction: Ferreira. Ferreira is a late replacement but I'll still go with him. While Ferreira isn't known for striking, he does have great striking defense and much better over Dariush. Ferreira is undefeated so he hasn't shown an area of major weakness yet. He hasn't shown to have a bad chin or bad submission defense. He's been successful so far on takedowns as he's gotten every takedown he's attempted. Ferreira isn't a striker and doesn't have the accuracy that Dariush has but Dariush has been knocked out before and it was against Ramsey Nijem who has a bad chin. Ferreira has a better chin than Nijem and might be able to take more than Dariush plus as I mentioned, he does have much better defense.

Darren Elkins vs. Lucas Martins

Nickname:                                     The Damage    |        Mineiro

Height:                                                 5'10            |           6'0

Age:                                                        30             |           25

MMA Record (UFC):                      17-4 (7-3)     |       15-1 (3-1)

Arm Length:                                        71 in.         |         72 in.

Team:                                   Duneland Vale Tudo | Chute Boxe Academy

Weight Class:                                  Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Elkins is coming off a loss to Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX 10 (January 25, 2014). Martins is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Alex White by KO at UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Miller (July 16, 2014).

Prediction: Martins. Martins is a very good striker with tremendous power as ten of his fifteen wins have come by knockout. He also doesn't come off as a one punch kind of fighter who head hunts as he's won fights by targeting the body as well. As far as stand up goes, Martins is the more accurate striker and has slightly better defense. While mostly a striker, Martins has shown to have good takedown defense and can take an opponents back well as he's scored some wins with a rear-naked choke. Elkins has been knocked out quickly before against #1 contender Chad Mendes last year and while Mendes is a more elite fighter, Martins can still pull it off. My only real worry about this pick is the fact that Martins has never faced a wrestler like Elkins before. While Martins has shown good takedown defense in the past, he never faced a state wrestling champion before.

Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer

Nickname:                                  Caipira de Aco       |          None

Height:                                                 6'1                 |            6'2

Age:                                                      34                  |            27

MMA Record (UFC):                    21-7 (4-4)          |       12-4 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                      75 in.              |          73 in.

Team:                                 Fabio Maldonado Team |     Blackzilians

Weight Class:                              Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Maldonado is coming off a loss to Stipe Miocic by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs. Maldonado (May 31, 2014). Stringer is unbeaten in seven fights (5 wins, 2 draws). His recent win was over Francimar Barroso by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson 2 (March 23, 2014).

Prediction: Maldonado. Stringer is the more well-rounded fighter but he hasn't won a fight by submission and Maldonado has good takedown defense. Maldonado is better on the stand up with better accuracy and defense. He has a long history of amateur boxing and professional boxing. Despite his recent loss to Miocic, Maldonado is a tough fighter to put away as he can take a beating as showed in his fight with Glover Teixeira. Even when he's getting beat up, he's still a threat as he clipped Teixeira during their fight and rocked him. He also holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has good takedown defense so it should be hard for Stringer to get this fight to the ground and submit Maldonado. While he has lost two fights by submission, his last submission loss was seven years ago so he's not just a one-dimensional striker.

Glover Teixeira vs. Phil Davis

Nickname:                                             None             |    Mr. Wonderul

Height:                                                     6'2              |          6'2

Age:                                                          34               |          30

MMA Record (UFC):                        22-3 (5-1)       |   12-2, 1NC (8-2, 1NC)

Arm Length:                                          76 in.           |         79 in.

Team:                                       American Top Team |   Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                 Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Teixeira is coming off a loss to Jon Jones by unanimous decision at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014). Davis is coming off a loss to Anthony Johnson by unanimous decision at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014).

Prediction: Teixeira. I personally don't see how Davis wins this fight unless he gets a flash knockout. Teixeira has a ton of knockout power and has won most of his fights by knockout. He also had very good boxing so he's not just one punch kind of fighter. Davis is a very good wrestler but he's never become a true mixed martial artist as his striking is not good. He reminds me of the Gracie Family or Jeff Monson in that he's a very good grappler but I don't think he'll ever understand striking and will always be a one-dimensional. Even worse for Davis is the fact that Teixeira has good grappling skills, he's competed in the prestigious ADCC grappling tournament, and has never been submitted. Honestly, Davis has not looked impressive since the Rashad Evans loss nearly three years ago. His wins over Wagner Prado and Vinny Magalhaes aren't that impressive since Prado never made far in the UFC while Magalhaes has so many glaring holes in his game. Meanwhile, he never should've beaten Lyoto Machida and that was a bad decision. In his recent fight, he was a comfortable favorite over Anthony Johnson and still lost with every judge giving it a 30-27 score. My only fear is that despite Teixeira being a better striker and Davis not showing much KO power, Teixeira has been clipped in the past and was put in some danger against Fabio Maldonado and Ryan Bader.

Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

Nickname:                                          Scarface   |        Money

Height:                                                   5'7         |           5'5

Age:                                                        28          |           29

MMA Record (UFC):                       24-1 (6-0) |      16-1 (7-1)

Arm Length:                                       70 in,       |         66 in.

Team:                                              Nova Uniao |  Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                    Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Featherweight Championship

Preview: Aldo is riding a seventeen fight win streak. His recent win was over Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision at UFC 168 (February 1, 2014). Mendes is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Nik Lentz by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX 9 (December 13, 2013).

Prediction: Mendes. This is Mendes for the taking. While Mendes lost to Aldo before, that fight was two years ago and Mendes has made huge improvement since then. Like most of Team Alpha Male, Mendes has always been a phenomenal wrestler but he's also seen big improvement in his striking and has been showing it. Mendes has not only shown he's not a one punch head hunter, he can throw in combinations and do effective body attacks as well. Along with his improved striking, Mendes has also shown to have very good knockout power as he's defeated four opponents in his five fight win streak by knockout with the first three wins being all under two minutes. While he's giving away two inches in size and four inches in reach, Mendes is still a threat standing up. He's even become more accurate than Aldo and slightly better with defense. The only time since the loss to Aldo he hasn't looked good was his recent fight with Nik Lentz and that was due to the flu. While Mendes has looked good over the years, the same can't be said for Aldo. Since arriving in the UFC, Aldo seems to have one problem after another. The first big one is his lack of a killer instinct. The Aldo that tore through the WEC is scary fashion and knocked out Cub Swanson in eight seconds with a double flying knee seems to be gone. During his WEC run, Aldo went 8-0 with seven win coming by way of knockout. In his UFC run to date, he's 6-0 with only two wins by knockout and neither were as impressive. He knocked out Mendes after he grabbed the cage to prevent a takedown and he defeated Korean Zombie by TKO after Zombie took the fight on short notice and injured his shoulder during the fight. In his recent fight with Ricardo Lamas, he seemed content with playing it safe and leg kicking for five rounds. The second big problem has been weight cut problems. Over the last year, Nova Uniao has been criticized for the way their fighters are cutting weight and Aldo is a big example. For most of his UFC run, Aldo has had some hard weight cuts, seems tired on the scale, and gasses by the third round in his fights. Finally, the third big problem for Aldo has been injuries. Since coming to the UFC, Aldo has been riddled with injuries left and right and not even minor ones. Instead, he's suffered a neck injury, a foot injury, and a shoulder & cervical injury with the latter delaying this fight as it was scheduled back in August. Aldo has also had long layoff as well as he fought Mendes the first time in January 2012 and then wouldn't fight again for thirteen months due to recurring injuries as he pulled out of two fights that year. How much longer can Aldo hold on? While there's the possibility of Aldo beating Mendes again with a knockout, I'm not sure how Aldo can take this. Mendes has made big improvement with his striking and attacks the body which is something Aldo doesn't want giving his cardio issues. If the fight goes into the championship rounds then it's doubtful Aldo can hold on. Mendes has never fought a five round fight but Aldo gets tired during the third and Mendes isn't the guy you can take your foot off the gas pedal when you're competing against him. It's also doubtful he'll just leg kick Mendes for five rounds as well. Finally, Aldo has never been knocked out before but Mendes can pull it off. Before Mendes fought Clay Guida, Guida was well known for his toughness and ability to take punishment. Mendes was the first to defeat Guida by knockout.