UFC 177 Predictions

UFC 177 Predictions

August 29, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Chris Wade vs. Cain Carrizosa

Nickname:                                            None        |        None

Height:                                                    5'9          |         6'0

Age:                                                    Unknown    |     Unknown

MMA Record (UFC):                        7-1 (0-0)   |      6-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                       Unknown   |        72 in.

Team:                                      Long Island MMA |     Elite Team

Weight Class:                                     Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Both Wade and Carrizosa's UFC debuts

Preview: Wade is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Frankie Perez by split decision at ROC 48 (May 16, 2014). Carrizosa is undefeated with six wins. His recent win was over Chris Quitlquit by KO at TPF 18 (February 6, 2014).

Prediction: Carrizosa. I don't know much about either fighter as neither have a wikipedia page or a summery on their UFC profiles on the UFC website. Since neither have competed in the UFC, there's no stats on UFC.com. However, I'll go with Carrizosa since he's the more well-rounded fighter with an even amount of knockout, submission, and decision wins. He's shown to have good power with his first knockout coming at two minutes into the fight while his recent one was 30 seconds into the fight. He's good on his back as he's scored a submission win via triangle choke. He shouldn't have to worry a lot on Wade finishing since he's not much of a finisher. To date, Wade has yet to win a fight by knockout and only won two by submission.

Joe Soto vs. Anthony Birchak

Nickname:                              One Bad Mofo  |            None

Height:                                                5'6        |              5'8

Age:                                                     27        |               28

MMA Record (UFC):                  15-2 (0-0)  |         11-1 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                  Unknown   |             70 in.

Team:                       Nor-Cal Fighting Alliance |       Apex MMA

Weight Class:                                    Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Both Soto and Birchak's UFC debuts

Preview: Soto is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Terrion Ware by submission at TPF 20 (August 8, 2014). Birchak is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Tito Jones by submission at MFC 38 (October 4, 2013).

Prediction: Soto. For one, Soto has two losses but both were in featherweight which is a weight class he is no longer in. His first loss was to Joe Warren which isn't anything to be ashamed of and he was dominating that fight until getting caught. Since going to bantamweight, Soto has not lost yet and seems to have found his groove in this weight class. Soto is also a very good wrestler with honors and is great with submissions. He seems to be very good with a variety of chokes including north-south, rear-naked, and guillotine. Though he hasn't knocked a fighter out in a long time, he is capable of doing it. I don't know much on Birchak but he's won most of his fights by submission. However, if this fight goes to the ground then Soto should have the advantage given his wrestling pedigree.

Ruan Potts vs. Anthony Hamilton

Nickname:                                          Fangs      |          Freight Train

Height:                                                  6'2        |               6'5

Age:                                                       36        |                35

MMA Record (UFC):                       8-2 (0-1) |           12-3 (0-1)

Arm Length:                                        75 in.     |              79 in.

Team:                                   African Top Team | Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA

Weight Class:                                      Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Potts is coming off a loss to Soa Palelei by KO at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014). Hamilton is coming off a loss to Oleksiy Oliynyk by submission at UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Stephens (June 28, 2014).

Prediction: Hamilton. Hamilton is taller with a longer range which should be very helpful since they're both heavyweights who hit very hard. Hamilton is also training at Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA which is one of the best gyms in the world. He could have the advantage in strategy since Greg Jackson is great with strategy and an advantage in striking since Mike Winkeljohn is a great striking coach. Potts didn't look that impressive against Palelei in his debut as Palelei was able to take him down, eventually move to mount, and knock him out with ground n' pound. Hamilton didn't look good in his debut but Oliynyk is a much seasoned veteran with nearly 50 wins and very good grappling credentials. In their debut fights, Hamilton showed the better striking defense and isn't bad on the ground as he has a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and was an All-American in wrestling.

Scott Jorgensen vs. Henry Cejudo

Nickname:                                        Young Guns      |   The Messenger

Height:                                                    5'4              |          5'4

Age:                                                         31              |           27

MMA Record (UFC):                        15-9 (4-5)      |       6-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                          66 in.           |         67.5 in.

Team:                                             Twisted Genetiks |     Fight Ready

Weight Class:                                         Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Cejudo's UFC debut

Preview: Jorgensen is coming off a win over Danny Martinez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Khabilov (June 7, 2014). Cejudo is undefeated with six wins. Her recent win was over Elias Garcia by unanimous decision at Legacy FC 27 (January 31, 2014).

Prediction: Cejudo. Despite being new with six fights, Cejudo seems to have the tools to pull out the victory. He's an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling which is a great base. He also packs a lot of power especially for a flyweight and has an amateur boxing background. He's good with knees, elbows, and ground n' pound. I'm personally not sold on Jorgensen as a flyweight. It comes off as a fighter who drops down when things aren't working and is trying to reverse his fortunes. Sure, his loss to Formiga was controversial but he was the favorite against Makovsky and lost decisively. He wasn't helpless against Makovsky's wrestling but he still got taken down a few times. If he had problems with Makovsky's wrestling then he'll probably struggle with Cejudo.

Lorenz Larkin vs. Derek Brunson

Nickname:                                        Monsoon       |          None

Height:                                                  5'11           |            6'1

Age:                                                        27            |             30

MMA Record (UFC):                14-3, 1NC (1-3) |       11-3 (2-1)

Arm Length:                                         72 in.         |           76 in.

Team:                                            Millennia MMA |  Jackson-Winkeljohn MMA

Weight Class:                                      Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Larkin is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Costas Philippou by KO at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014). Brunson is coming off a loss to Romero by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Philippou (January 15, 2014).

Prediction: Brunson. Brunson has the size and reach advantages which should help him. He's the more well-rounded fighter with a near even amount of knockout, submission, and decision wins while Larkin is more of a knockout artist. Brunson is also a former All-American with very good wrestling. He should have the advantage if this fight goes to the ground given his wrestling skills and size. I'm not sure how this will play standing. Larkin is a heavy hitter but he hasn't won a fight by knockout since 2011. Both men have also been knocked out twice (though Larkin's loss to Mo Lawal was overturned due to a failed drug test). Brunson's two knockout losses are mixed. His recent was to Yoel Romero which isn't anything to be ashamed of. His other was to Ronaldo Souza who is an elite fighter but not known for striking. However, with a four inch reach advantage and training at Jackson-Winkeljohn could be helpful.

Yancy Medeiros vs. Damon Jackson

Nickname:                                         Frisson           |        The Leech

Height:                                                 5'10             |           5'11

Age:                                                       26              |             26

MMA Record (UFC):         9-2, 1NC (0-2, 1NC) |         9-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                        76 in.           |            73 in.

Team:                                      Team Gracie Fighter |     Octagon MMA

Weight Class:                                       Lightweight (145 pounds)

Notes: Jackson's UFC debut. Jackson is replacing Justin Edwards.

Preview: Mediros is winless in three fights (two losses, one no contest). His recent fight was a loss to Jim Miller by technical submission at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014). Jackson is undefeated with nine wins. His recent win was over Leonard Garcia by submission at Legacy FC 33 (July 18, 2014).

Prediction: Medeiros. Medeiros is winless in the UFC but losing to Rustam Khabilov and Jim Miller are absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. Meanwhile, the Khabilov loss came via injury and his no contest against Yves Edwards was originally a win that was overturned because he smoked marijuana. The Khabilov fight was also Medeiros' first fight in nearly three years. Jackson is also taking this fight on only a weeks notice due to Justin Edwards suffering an injury. It's extremely difficult to be prepared for a fight with only one week to get ready. Jackson is mostly a grappler who has won the majority of his fights by submission. Medeiros has very good takedown defense, good boxing, and a three inch reach advantage. If he can prevent Jackson from taking this fight to the ground then he'll take this as he has the reach advantage, is the better striker, and has more power.

Ramsey Nijem vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Nickname:                            Stripper Ramsey    |               None

Height:                                             5'6             |                 5'8

Age:                                                  26             |                  29

MMA Record (UFC):                 9-4 (5-3)       |            10-0 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                   74 in.          |               73.5 in.

Team:                     The Pit Elevated Fight Team | Silverback Fight Club

Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Nijem is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Beneil Dariush by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs. Nelson (April 11, 2014). Ferreira is undefeated with ten wins. His recent win was over Colton Smith by submission at UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Stephens (June 28, 2014).

Prediction: Nijem. I'll admit, I have no clue about either guy so this is a guess. Ultimately, Ferreira looks like he has a great ground game but not much striking. He's never won a fight by knockout and his striking defense is terrible. Nijem has been finished multiple times but his knockout losses are to Tony Ferguson and Miles Jury who are better strikers and have proven to have a lot of power. I am nervous since Nijem hasn't shown to have great takedown defense and has been submitted before. If this fight goes to the ground, then Nijem can find himself tapping out.

Beth Correia vs. Shayna Baszler

Nickname:                                          Pitbull         |    The Queen of Spades

Height:                                                 5'4            |             5'7

Age:                                                      31            |              34

MMA Record (UFC):                       8-0 (2-0)    |         15-8 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                       64 in.         |           67.5 in.

Team:                                Pitbull Brothers MMA |    Glendale Fight Club

Weight Class:                                  Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Baszler's UFC debut

Preview: Correia is undefeated with eight wins. Her recent win was over Jessamyn Duke by unanimous decision at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014). Baszler is coming off a loss to Alexis Davis by technical submission at Invicta FC 4 (January 5, 2013).

Prediction: Correia. I pick Correia but not with a lot of confidence. It's almost impossible to go with a member of the Four Horsewomen unless it's Ronda Rousey. Despite being named after the legendary wrestling stable, they have yet to show they are the symbol of excellence. Jessamyn Duke has looked awful in her three UFC appearances and Marina Shafir got knocked out in 37 seconds in her recent fight. As for Baszler, she appeared on Season Eighteen of the Ultimate Fighter where there was expectations for her to do good and was even the first pick of Rousey. Ultimately, Bazler would end up getting eliminated from the competition in the first round by eventual winner Julianna Pena. Meanwhile, Baszler is coming off two injuries layoffs which have delayed her UFC debut as well as a nineteen month layoff. Given the injuries and the very long layoff, it's highly doubtful Baszler will come into this at her best. Meanwhile, Baszler comes off as someone who could be at the end of her career or at least someone who made it to the big leagues too late. She's 34, has a recent history with injuries, and has been competing for eleven years. As for Correia, she's not an elite fighter right now but she's younger, far healthier, and doesn't have anywhere near the amount of mileage that Baszler has. Despite going into MMA in her late 20s, Correia has room to get better as this is only her tenth fight and she's only been competing in MMA for two years. In her fights, Correia has shown very good takedown defense and aggression. In the Jessamyn Duke fight, she gave away a lot of size and reach but still was the better fighter. While Duke has shown and admitted she struggles with using her reach, Baszler isn't a better striker so Correia could find success striking. Baszler is mostly a grappler but Correia has shown very good takedown defense in her fights. If Baszler can't get this fight to the ground then Correia could win by picking her apart standing up. Even if the fight does go to the ground, it's not a guarantee that Baszler will win by submission as she has been submitted in the past. While Correia has never won a fight by submission, the point is that Baszler is not indestructible on the ground.

Tony Ferguson vs. Danny Castillo

Nickname:                                         El Cucuy        |       Last Call

Height:                                                  5'11            |           5'9

Age:                                                        30             |            34

MMA Record (UFC):                       15-3 (5-1)     |      17-6 (7-3)

Arm Length:                                         76 in.          |          71 in.

Team:                                                Reign MMA   |   Team Alpha Male

Weight Class:                                        Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Ferguson is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Katsunori Kikuno by KO at UFC 173 (May 24, 2014). Castillo is coming off a win over Charlie Brenneman by KO at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014).

Prediction: Ferguson. Ferguson seems like the better fighter. He's got a reach advantage, he has the wrestling pedigree, and is better defensively with takedown defense and striking defense. Castillo is a good fighter but he's not like his teammates Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez where they destroy everyone that's not the champion. Ferguson is also a finisher with nine wins by knockout and four by submission. While Castillo brings power, Ferguson has never been knocked out in his career while Castillo has been on two occasions. If the fight stays standing then Ferguson has the best chance of winning giving his chin and longer reach. Even if it goes to the ground, Ferguson should have the advantage giving his wrestling credentials and being slightly bigger. Despite a small size advantage, Ferguson could benefit from this by being hard to get off if he clinches Castillo to the fence or on top on the ground and he could be difficult for Castillo to control on the ground.

TJ Dillashaw vs. Renan Pegado

Nickname:                                         The Viper     |          Barao

Height:                                                   5'6           |            5'7

Age:                                                        28           |             27

MMA Record (UFC):                      10-2 (6-2)    |     32-1, 1NC (7-1)

Arm Length:                                        68 in.         |            67 in.

Team:                                        Team Alpha Male |       Nova Uniao

Weight Class:                                     Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Bantamweight Championship

Preview: Dillashaw is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Renan Barao by TKO at UFC 173 (May 24, 2014). Barao is coming off a loss to TJ Dillashaw by TKO at UFC 173 (May 24, 2014).

Prediction: Dillashaw. After the first fight which was one sided, it's impossible to go with Barao. He and his camp have been saying he was sick and has had a great training camp for this fight but it's hard to believe. If the last fight was close or had a controversial decision then I would give Barao the benefit of the doubt. However, he got annihilated for four and a half rounds with the first being a 10-8 in my opinion. At no point did Barao look good in the fight. Dillashaw was better everywhere, put on a performance of a lifetime, and sealed it with a TKO finish. I didn't get the same opinion of this fight like I did with the first Silva/Sonnen fight. I felt in that fight that Sonnen caught Anderson and surprised him. This reminds me more of Shogun/Machida where Shogun not only looked great in the first fight but you knew he would win the second because he figured Machida out. He cracked the code and solved the riddle. Dillashaw's performance comes off as if he figured Barao out. Dillashaw has a lot of great skills. He's made a big improvement on his striking, he's a very good wrestler, and he wields a lot of power. Another important reason is the mental game. Dillashaw is going to enter this fight with a lot of confidence in him. Barao may be another story. Sure he will be physically prepared but you don't go on a 30 fight win streak, lose the way he did, and not have some doubt.