UFC on
FOX 12 Predictions
July
22, 2014
By Ryan
Porzl
Juliana
Lima vs. Joanna Jesrzejczyk
Nickname: Ju Thai | None
Height: 5'6 | 5'6
Age: 32 | 26
MMA
Record (UFC): 6-1 (0-0) | 6-0 (0-0)
Arm
Length: Unknown | Unknown
Team: Draculino Team | Arrachion
Olsztyn
Weight
Class: Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)
Notes:
Both Lima and Jesrzejczyk's UFC debuts
Preview:
Lima is coming off a win over Liliani Trolezi by TKO at Brazil Fight
7 (October 11, 2013). Jesrzejczyk is undefeated with six wins. Her
recent win was over Rosi Sexton by KO at Cage Warriors 69 (June 7,
2014).
Predictions:
Lima. This is one of these fights where I not only don't know
anything about these two but I don't have much information. Still,
I'll go with Lima. From what I read, Lima seems like the more
well-rounded fighter according to UFC's summery. Lima has Muay Thai
skills as well as takedowns and ground n' pound. Jesrzejczyk seems to
be more of a striker with Muay Thai and boxing. She comes off as the
better striker but Lima could win this by taking the fight down and
pounding her which could get Lima a TKO win or at least score points.
Perhaps another thing to look at is that July is the third straight
month Jesrzejczyk has fought. She already fought in May and June so
this could haunt her as too many quick returns can tire a fighter
out. Worse of all, her fight last month went to the second round
while the May fight went the distance so it's not like she's in and
out.
Andreas
Stahl vs. Gilbert Burns
Nickname: Real Steel | Durinho
Height: 5'11 | 5'10
Age: 26 | 27
MMA
Record (UFC): 9-0 (0-0) | 7-0 (0-0)
Arm
Length: Unknown | Unknown
Team: Renyi Fight Club | Belfort Team
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Both Stahl and Burns' UFC debuts. Burns is replacing Viscardi
Andrade.
Preview:
Stahl is undefeated with nine wins. His recent win was over Veselin
Dimitrov by TKO at EMMA 6 (September 26, 2013). Burns is undefeated
with seven wins. His recent win was over Paulo Teixeira by TKO at FTF
7 (May 2, 2014).
Predictions: Burns. Burns is a very
well-rounded fighter with three wins by knockout and four by
submission. He's by far the better grappler as he's a world champion
in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He trains with Vitor Belfort and occasionally
with the Blackzilians which should provide him with great training.
As for Stahl, there's way to many questions. I don't know what his
reach is and I'm not familiar with Renyi Fight Club. Apparently, he's
a wrestler but it's doubtful he wants to go to the ground with a
world class grappler. Burns is also good at taking opponents back as
he's scored two wins with a rear-naked choke.
Steven
Siler vs. Noad Lahat
Nickname: Super | Neo
Height: 5'11 | 5'8
Age: 27 | 30
MMA
Record (UFC): 23-12 (5-3) | 7-1 (0-1)
Arm
Length: 70 in. | 69
in.
Team: The Pit Elevated Fight Team | American
Kickboxing Academy
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Siler is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to
Rony Bezerra by TKO at UFC Fight Night 38 (March 23, 2014). Lahat is
coming off a loss over Godofredo Pepey by KO at UFC Fight Night 38
(March 23, 2014).
Predictions:
Lahat. This was a tough one to predict but I'll go with Lahat. Lahat
is a very good grappler, is a former world champion in BJJ with no
gi, and he has a background in judo. Siler is a fighter that wins
most of his fights by submission and is a grappler but it's highly
doubtful he'll control someone as decorated as Lahat. Lahat is also
training at AKA which should help him with his striking. Siler is
also easy to finish as he lost five times by TKO and five by
submission.
Tiago
dos Santos vs. Akbarh Arreola
Nickname: Trator | El
Caballero
Height: 5'9 | 5'10
Age: 27 | 31
MMA
Record (UFC): 18-4-1, 1NC (0-0) | 22-7-1 (0-0)
Arm
Length: Unknown | Unknown
Team: Team Nogueira | Entram
Gym Vale Tudo
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Both dos Santos and Arreola's UFC debuts
Preview:
dos Santos is riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over
Ary Santos by TKO at Jungle Fight 65 (February 2, 2014). Arreola is
riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Alejandro
Rodrigeuz by submission at CRMMA 1 (March 22, 2014).
Predictions:
dos Santos. Dos Santos is the more well-rounded fighter with seven
wins by knockout, six by submission, and five by decision. Arreola is
more of a grappler with sixteen wins by submission. Three of dos
Santos' losses have come by submission but his most recent submission
loss was three years ago. Being a part of Team Nogueira should
prepare him for this fight. On the other hand, five of Arreola's
seven losses have been by way of knockout and TKO. Granted some of
these losses have been corner stoppages but that's not a good thing
either as it means he probably can't take a beating or gets hurt
easily and that's not something that can be improved on like
submission defense.
Brian
Ortega vs. Mike De La Torre
Nickname: T-City | El
Cucuy
Height: 5'9 | 6'0
Age: 23 | Unknown
MMA
Record (UFC): 8-0 (0-0) | 12-4 (0-1)
Arm
Length: 75 in. | 71 in.
Team: Black House | MMA
Lab
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Ortega's UFC debut.
Preview:
Ortega is undefeated with eight wins. His recent win was over Keoni
Koch by split decision at RFA 12 (January 24, 2014). De La Torre is
coming off a loss to Mark Bocek by split decision at UFC The Ultimate
Fighter Nations Finale (April 16, 2014).
Predictions:
Ortega. Ortega seems to have the tools to be successful here. He's
got very good Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as he trains with UFC co-founder
Rorian Gracie and his sons in Torrance, California. As a result, if
this fight goes to the ground than Ortega should be the better
grappler. Meanwhile, De La Torre is a submission magnet with three of
his four losses coming by submission. This seems like a good
stylistic fight for Ortega. While mostly a grappler, Ortega does
train at Black House and with the sparring partners there as well as
his four inch reach advantage, he shouldn't be helpless standing.
Ortega has also won three times by triangle choke so he's also
dangerous on his back as well.
Tim
Means vs. Hernani Perpetuo
Nickname: The Dirty Bird | None
Height: 6'2 | 6'0
Age: 30 | 29
MMA
Record (UFC): 20-6-1 (2-3) | 17-4 (0-1)
Arm
Length: 75 in. | 74 in.
Team: Power MMA | Nova Uniao
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Means is coming off a loss to Neil Magny by unanimous decision at UFC
Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014). Perpetuo is coming off a
loss to Jordan Mein by split decision at UFC on FOX 11 (April 19,
2014).
Predictions: Means. I'll go with the safe
pick. Means has struggled in the UFC but two of his losses were to
Danny Castillo and Jorge Masvidal who are top lightweights and Means
shouldn't have been in lightweight. Means is kind of predictable as
he's mostly a striker who wants to knock his opponents out but he
could still do it. Means has shown to be better in just about every
category. He's a more precise striker, he's good defensively, he's
got very good takedown accuracy, and very good takedown defense. In
his debut fight, Perpetuo's striking accuracy was bad and his
striking defense isn't that good which can be very beneficial for
Means as he wins most of his fights by knockout and he's clearly
shown to have a lot of power.
Kyle
Kingsbury vs. Patrick Cummins
Nickname: Kingsbu | Durkin
Height: 6'4 | 6'2
Age: 32 | 33
MMA
Record (UFC): 11-5, 1NC (4-4) | 5-1 (1-1)
Arm
Length: 79 in. | 76
in.
Team: American Kickboxing Academy | Reign MMA
Weight
Class: Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Kingsbury is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was
to Jimi Manuwa by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Struve vs. Miocic
(September 29, 2012). Cummins is coming off a win over Roger Navaez
by TKO at UFC Fight Night 42 (June 7, 2014).
Predictions: Cummins. I know I'm not the
only one who read this fight and one of the first thoughts was
“Kingsbury is still employed?”. Kingsbury is coming off a near
two year layoff which is huge. Another issue is the fact in his last
fight against Jimi Manuwa, his orbital bone was fractured in two
places. That's not good especially when facing a very decorated
wrestler who can likely take him down and ground n' pound him.
Speaking of Cummins, he has legit skills. He's a great wrestler, he's
a strong fighter, he's very athletic, he can submit fighters, and has
power. If Cummins can get this fight to the ground then he can likely
do whatever he wants. He's got submission skills so he can submit
Kingsbury and he can likely finish with ground n' pound as Kingsbury
has lost two fights by TKO.
Jorge
Masvidal vs. Daron Cruickshank
Nickname: Gamebred | The Detroit
Superstar
Height: 5'11 | 5'8
Age: 29 | 29
MMA
Record (UFC): 26-8 (3-1) | 15-4 (5-2)
Arm
Length: 74 in. | 72 in.
Team: American Top Team | Mash Fight
Team
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Masvidal is coming off a win over Pat Healy by unanimous decision at
UFC on FOX 11 (April 19, 2014). Cruickshank is riding a two fight win
streak. His recent win was over Erik Koch by TKO at UFC Fight Night:
Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014).
Predictions: Masvidal. On paper, Masvidal
is the overall better fighter. He's bigger and likely stronger with a
two inch reach advantage. He's a more accurate striker than
Cruickshank and better defensively which is important since both
usually go for the knockout. Masvidal has competed in boxing once and
kickboxing once. While he didn't accomplish anything great, at least
he's familiar to striking by competing in combat sports where there's
only striking. On the ground, Masvidal is the more decorated grappler
with better takedown accuracy and takedown defense. Yet another
reason Masvidal could win is the fact that Cruickshank is also
predictable. He's at his best when the opponent is on the outside and
he can tee off on them. If Masvidal pushes the pace and comes forward
then he could throw Cruickshank off his game.
Josh
Thomson vs. Bobby Green
Nickname: The Punk | King
Height: 5'10 | 5'10
Age: 35 | 27
MMA
Record (UFC): 20-6, 1NC (3-2) | 22-5 (3-0)
Arm
Length: 71 in. | 73
in.
Team: American Kickboxing Academy | Pinnacle Jiu-Jitsu
Weight
Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)
Notes:
Green is replacing Michael Johnson
Preview:
Thomson is coming off a loss to Ben Henderson by split decision at
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson (January 25, 2014). Green is riding
a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Pat Healy by
unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December
14, 2014).
Predictions: Thomson. For one thing, Green
is taking this fight on two weeks notice which isn't a lot of time to
prepare especially for a fighter like Thomson. Green is also taking a
pretty big step up in competition by going from Pat Healy to Josh
Thomson. Thomson has a lot of great tools and skills. He's a good
wrestler and should be the better striker. He also has a lot of power
as he showed in his fight with Nate Diaz where he became the first to
knock Diaz out in Diaz's MMA career. He's also very hard to put away
as he's never been submitted and has only been knocked out once ten
years ago against Yves Edwards. Since returning from a long layoff in
2012, Thomson has gone 2-2 but looking at his record closely, it's
very impressive. His two wins were against KJ Noons and Nate Diaz
while his two losses were highly controversial split decisions
against Gilbert Melendez and Ben Henderson who were and still are top
three lightweights.
Clay
Guida vs. Dennis Bermudez
Nickname: The Carpenter | The Menace
Height: 5'7 | 5'6
Age: 32 | 27
MMA
Record (UFC): 31-14 (11-8) | 13-3 (6-1)
Arm
Length: 69 in. | 66 in.
Team: Jackson-Winklejohn MMA | Long Island MMA
Weight
Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Guida is coming off a win over Tatsuya Kawajiri by unanimous decision
at UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs. Nelson (April 11, 2014). Bermudez is
riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Jimy Hettes by
TKO at UFC 171 (March 15, 2014).
Predictions: Bermudez. Granted Bermudez
hasn't faced the competition that Guida has but he's younger and
healthier. Despite Guida winning his last fight, he should
technically be 1-4 in his last five. Guida is coming off as a fighter
who's starting to decline and his best days are behind him. Since his
win over Anthony Pettis in 2011, he's looked awful. He got destroyed
by Ben Henderson in a one-sided fight. He had that very bizarre
performance against Gray Maynard who he lost to. He defeated Hatsu
Hioki in a very close fight that some thought was a robbery and he
got an undeserved decision win. Then he got annihilated and suffered
his first knockout loss against Chad Mendes. The Mendes loss is
alarming given Guida is known for his toughness. When you're known
for having a great chin and then get knocked out, that's a very bad
sign. In his recent fight, he defeated Tatsuya Kawajiri which is a
good win but Kawajiri is another fighter who's best days might be
behind him and has been suffering from repeated eye issues before and
since. Bermudez could have the skills needed to win. He's shown in
his last fight that he can knock his opponents out. He has great
takedown defense which should allow him to block takedowns. If
Bermudez can prevent the takedowns then he could be able to pick
Guida apart standing up since Guida these days relies so much on his
wrestling.
Anthony
Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Nickname: Rumble | Mintouro
Height: 6'2 | 6'2
Age: 30 | 38
MMA
Record (UFC): 17-4 (8-4) | 21-5 (4-2)
Arm
Length: 78 in. | 75 in.
Team: Blackzilians | Black House
Weight
Class: Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Johnson is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over
Phil Davis by unanimous decision at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014).
Nogueira is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over
Rashad Evans by unanimous decision at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013).
Predictions: Johnson. Unless Johnson drops
the ball like his teammate Rashad Evans did, I can't see how Nogueira
can win. Johnson is a big, strong, athletic Light Heavyweight who is
younger and far healthier than Nogeuira. He's got a three inch reach
advantage. He hits very hard and is a good striker with good punches
and kicks. He's also a very good wrestler and can hold his own on the
ground. Nogueira is also a wreck at this point who is not only past
his prime but miles away from it. Nowadays, he's extremely injury
prone, he's beat up, and he's is very slow. Like his brother, he
comes off as a guy who is held up with scotch tape and chewing gum.
Nogueira has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a very
decorated boxer but he's so worn down that he may not be able to use
these skills like he used to. You also look at the fights he's won in
the UFC, none are impressive. He looked great against Luiz Cane and
Tito Ortiz but Cane is a middle of the pack kind of fighter while
Ortiz is one of the rare cases of being more battered than Nogueira.
His win over Jason Brilz was a win most thought (myself included)
that he shouldn't have gotten in the first place and Brilz took the
fight on two weeks notice. He beat Rashad Evans but that had more to
do with what Rashad didn't do instead of what Nogueira did. In fact,
some would say that was the worst performance in Evans' career.
Nogueira is also coming off a seventeen month layoff which is not
good especially when you're as old as Nogueira and facing someone
like Rumble.
Robbie
Lawler vs. Matt Brown
Nickname: Ruthless | The
Immortal
Height: 5'11 | 6'0
Age: 32 | 33
MMA
Record (UFC): 23-10, 1NC (8-4) | 19-11 (12-5)
Arm
Length: 74 in. | 75
in.
Team: American Top Team | AMC
Pankration
Weight
Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)
Notes:
Preview:
Lawler is coming off a win over Jake Ellenberger by TKO at UFC 173
(May 24, 2014). Brown is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent
win was over Erick Silva by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva
(May 10, 2014).
Predictions: Lawler. This fight is going
to the welterweight equivalent of Junior Dos Santos/Mark Hunt. Brown
is somewhat like Hunt where he was considered washed up and going
nowhere when all of a sudden he put together a big win streak and won
the hearts of fans everywhere. Unfortunately, I say he's somewhat
like Hunt but he's not quite there because not one of Brown's win are
against top ten competition. While racking up seven wins is
impressive, Brown has beat unranked fighters and guys in the low top
fifteen. I know MMA math doesn't always work but look at the guys
Brown has faced. Chris Cope and Luis Ramos mean nothing. Jordan Mein
and Stephen Thompson are good up and comers but neither are ranked
and weren't at the time Brown beat them. Meanwhile, Mein took the
fight on short notice. Mike Swick is not an elite fighter and was
coming off his first fight in two years. Mike Pyle is an aging
grappler. Erick Silva has been a yo-yo over the years and may never
get better. Meanwhile, Lawler put on clinics against Josh Koscheck
and Jake Ellenberger. He pulled off a big upset over prospect Rory
MacDonald. He also came very close to beating Johny Hendricks. Brown
is taking a gigantic step up in competition as he's going from low
top fifteen to facing a top three fighter. Brown has been showing
improvement but so has Lawler. Lawler has been a monster since
returning to the UFC. He's training at American Top Team which has
been paying off. His striking is better and his ground game is
better. He's been impressive against better opposition than Brown.
Brown has never been knocked out before but that shouldn't stop
Lawler as he has the power to severely hurt Brown. In fact, Brown was
in trouble in his last fight when he got dropped by Erick Silva.
Brown likely won't be able to do anything on the ground since Josh
Koscheck and Jake Ellenberger couldn't control Lawler and they're
better wrestlers.
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