Thursday, July 24, 2014

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs. Brown Predictions

                                UFC on FOX 12

UFC on FOX 12 Predictions
July 22, 2014
By Ryan Porzl


Juliana Lima vs. Joanna Jesrzejczyk
Nickname:                                        Ju Thai       |            None
Height:                                                 5'6          |              5'6
Age:                                                      32          |               26
MMA Record (UFC):                    6-1 (0-0)     |          6-0 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                    Unknown    |          Unknown
Team:                                        Draculino Team |     Arrachion Olsztyn
Weight Class:                              Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

Notes: Both Lima and Jesrzejczyk's UFC debuts

Preview: Lima is coming off a win over Liliani Trolezi by TKO at Brazil Fight 7 (October 11, 2013). Jesrzejczyk is undefeated with six wins. Her recent win was over Rosi Sexton by KO at Cage Warriors 69 (June 7, 2014).

Predictions: Lima. This is one of these fights where I not only don't know anything about these two but I don't have much information. Still, I'll go with Lima. From what I read, Lima seems like the more well-rounded fighter according to UFC's summery. Lima has Muay Thai skills as well as takedowns and ground n' pound. Jesrzejczyk seems to be more of a striker with Muay Thai and boxing. She comes off as the better striker but Lima could win this by taking the fight down and pounding her which could get Lima a TKO win or at least score points. Perhaps another thing to look at is that July is the third straight month Jesrzejczyk has fought. She already fought in May and June so this could haunt her as too many quick returns can tire a fighter out. Worse of all, her fight last month went to the second round while the May fight went the distance so it's not like she's in and out.

Andreas Stahl vs. Gilbert Burns
Nickname:                                          Real Steel      |       Durinho
Height:                                                    5'11          |          5'10
Age:                                                          26            |           27
MMA Record (UFC):                         9-0 (0-0)     |       7-0 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                        Unknown     |       Unknown
Team:                                            Renyi Fight Club |     Belfort Team
Weight Class:                                    Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Both Stahl and Burns' UFC debuts. Burns is replacing Viscardi Andrade.

Preview: Stahl is undefeated with nine wins. His recent win was over Veselin Dimitrov by TKO at EMMA 6 (September 26, 2013). Burns is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over Paulo Teixeira by TKO at FTF 7 (May 2, 2014).

Predictions: Burns. Burns is a very well-rounded fighter with three wins by knockout and four by submission. He's by far the better grappler as he's a world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He trains with Vitor Belfort and occasionally with the Blackzilians which should provide him with great training. As for Stahl, there's way to many questions. I don't know what his reach is and I'm not familiar with Renyi Fight Club. Apparently, he's a wrestler but it's doubtful he wants to go to the ground with a world class grappler. Burns is also good at taking opponents back as he's scored two wins with a rear-naked choke.

Steven Siler vs. Noad Lahat
Nickname:                                              Super        |         Neo
Height:                                                     5'11         |          5'8
Age:                                                           27          |           30
MMA Record (UFC):                        23-12 (5-3)   |      7-1 (0-1)
Arm Length:                                             70 in.       |         69 in.
Team:                            The Pit Elevated Fight Team | American Kickboxing Academy
Weight Class:                                       Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Siler is riding a two fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Rony Bezerra by TKO at UFC Fight Night 38 (March 23, 2014). Lahat is coming off a loss over Godofredo Pepey by KO at UFC Fight Night 38 (March 23, 2014).

Predictions: Lahat. This was a tough one to predict but I'll go with Lahat. Lahat is a very good grappler, is a former world champion in BJJ with no gi, and he has a background in judo. Siler is a fighter that wins most of his fights by submission and is a grappler but it's highly doubtful he'll control someone as decorated as Lahat. Lahat is also training at AKA which should help him with his striking. Siler is also easy to finish as he lost five times by TKO and five by submission.

Tiago dos Santos vs. Akbarh Arreola
Nickname:                                           Trator            |      El Caballero
Height:                                                    5'9              |          5'10
Age:                                                         27               |           31
MMA Record (UFC):                 18-4-1, 1NC (0-0) |     22-7-1 (0-0)
Arm Length:                                      Unknown          |       Unknown
Team:                                              Team Nogueira    | Entram Gym Vale Tudo
Weight Class:                                       Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: Both dos Santos and Arreola's UFC debuts

Preview: dos Santos is riding a nine fight win streak. His recent win was over Ary Santos by TKO at Jungle Fight 65 (February 2, 2014). Arreola is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Alejandro Rodrigeuz by submission at CRMMA 1 (March 22, 2014).

Predictions: dos Santos. Dos Santos is the more well-rounded fighter with seven wins by knockout, six by submission, and five by decision. Arreola is more of a grappler with sixteen wins by submission. Three of dos Santos' losses have come by submission but his most recent submission loss was three years ago. Being a part of Team Nogueira should prepare him for this fight. On the other hand, five of Arreola's seven losses have been by way of knockout and TKO. Granted some of these losses have been corner stoppages but that's not a good thing either as it means he probably can't take a beating or gets hurt easily and that's not something that can be improved on like submission defense.

Brian Ortega vs. Mike De La Torre
Nickname:                                        T-City        |           El Cucuy
Height:                                                5'9           |               6'0
Age:                                                     23            |           Unknown
MMA Record (UFC):                    8-0 (0-0)      |          12-4 (0-1)
Arm Length:                                      75 in.         |              71 in.
Team:                                             Black House  |          MMA Lab
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Ortega's UFC debut.

Preview: Ortega is undefeated with eight wins. His recent win was over Keoni Koch by split decision at RFA 12 (January 24, 2014). De La Torre is coming off a loss to Mark Bocek by split decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter Nations Finale (April 16, 2014).

Predictions: Ortega. Ortega seems to have the tools to be successful here. He's got very good Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as he trains with UFC co-founder Rorian Gracie and his sons in Torrance, California. As a result, if this fight goes to the ground than Ortega should be the better grappler. Meanwhile, De La Torre is a submission magnet with three of his four losses coming by submission. This seems like a good stylistic fight for Ortega. While mostly a grappler, Ortega does train at Black House and with the sparring partners there as well as his four inch reach advantage, he shouldn't be helpless standing. Ortega has also won three times by triangle choke so he's also dangerous on his back as well.

Tim Means vs. Hernani Perpetuo
Nickname:                                The Dirty Bird    |            None
Height:                                               6'2            |              6'0
Age:                                                    30            |               29
MMA Record (UFC):                20-6-1 (2-3)   |          17-4 (0-1)
Arm Length:                                     75 in.         |             74 in.
Team:                                           Power MMA |        Nova Uniao
Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Means is coming off a loss to Neil Magny by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014). Perpetuo is coming off a loss to Jordan Mein by split decision at UFC on FOX 11 (April 19, 2014).

Predictions: Means. I'll go with the safe pick. Means has struggled in the UFC but two of his losses were to Danny Castillo and Jorge Masvidal who are top lightweights and Means shouldn't have been in lightweight. Means is kind of predictable as he's mostly a striker who wants to knock his opponents out but he could still do it. Means has shown to be better in just about every category. He's a more precise striker, he's good defensively, he's got very good takedown accuracy, and very good takedown defense. In his debut fight, Perpetuo's striking accuracy was bad and his striking defense isn't that good which can be very beneficial for Means as he wins most of his fights by knockout and he's clearly shown to have a lot of power.

Kyle Kingsbury vs. Patrick Cummins
Nickname:                                       Kingsbu          |           Durkin
Height:                                                6'4               |             6'2
Age:                                                     32               |              33
MMA Record (UFC):               11-5, 1NC (4-4)  |          5-1 (1-1)
Arm Length:                                       79 in.           |            76 in.
Team:                    American Kickboxing Academy |        Reign MMA
Weight Class:                                 Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Kingsbury is riding a three fight losing streak. His recent loss was to Jimi Manuwa by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Struve vs. Miocic (September 29, 2012). Cummins is coming off a win over Roger Navaez by TKO at UFC Fight Night 42 (June 7, 2014).

Predictions: Cummins. I know I'm not the only one who read this fight and one of the first thoughts was “Kingsbury is still employed?”. Kingsbury is coming off a near two year layoff which is huge. Another issue is the fact in his last fight against Jimi Manuwa, his orbital bone was fractured in two places. That's not good especially when facing a very decorated wrestler who can likely take him down and ground n' pound him. Speaking of Cummins, he has legit skills. He's a great wrestler, he's a strong fighter, he's very athletic, he can submit fighters, and has power. If Cummins can get this fight to the ground then he can likely do whatever he wants. He's got submission skills so he can submit Kingsbury and he can likely finish with ground n' pound as Kingsbury has lost two fights by TKO.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Daron Cruickshank
Nickname:                                   Gamebred        |    The Detroit Superstar
Height:                                             5'11             |             5'8
Age:                                                   29              |              29
MMA Record (UFC):                  26-8 (3-1)      |         15-4 (5-2)
Arm Length:                                    74 in.            |            72 in.
Team:                                   American Top Team |     Mash Fight Team
Weight Class:                                      Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Masvidal is coming off a win over Pat Healy by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX 11 (April 19, 2014). Cruickshank is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Erik Koch by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014).

Predictions: Masvidal. On paper, Masvidal is the overall better fighter. He's bigger and likely stronger with a two inch reach advantage. He's a more accurate striker than Cruickshank and better defensively which is important since both usually go for the knockout. Masvidal has competed in boxing once and kickboxing once. While he didn't accomplish anything great, at least he's familiar to striking by competing in combat sports where there's only striking. On the ground, Masvidal is the more decorated grappler with better takedown accuracy and takedown defense. Yet another reason Masvidal could win is the fact that Cruickshank is also predictable. He's at his best when the opponent is on the outside and he can tee off on them. If Masvidal pushes the pace and comes forward then he could throw Cruickshank off his game.

Josh Thomson vs. Bobby Green
Nickname:                                           The Punk      |          King
Height:                                                     5'10          |          5'10
Age:                                                           35           |            27
MMA Record (UFC):                   20-6, 1NC (3-2) |     22-5 (3-0)
Arm Length:                                             71 in.        |          73 in.
Team:                       American Kickboxing Academy | Pinnacle Jiu-Jitsu
Weight Class:                                        Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Green is replacing Michael Johnson

Preview: Thomson is coming off a loss to Ben Henderson by split decision at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson (January 25, 2014). Green is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Pat Healy by unanimous decision at UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 (December 14, 2014).

Predictions: Thomson. For one thing, Green is taking this fight on two weeks notice which isn't a lot of time to prepare especially for a fighter like Thomson. Green is also taking a pretty big step up in competition by going from Pat Healy to Josh Thomson. Thomson has a lot of great tools and skills. He's a good wrestler and should be the better striker. He also has a lot of power as he showed in his fight with Nate Diaz where he became the first to knock Diaz out in Diaz's MMA career. He's also very hard to put away as he's never been submitted and has only been knocked out once ten years ago against Yves Edwards. Since returning from a long layoff in 2012, Thomson has gone 2-2 but looking at his record closely, it's very impressive. His two wins were against KJ Noons and Nate Diaz while his two losses were highly controversial split decisions against Gilbert Melendez and Ben Henderson who were and still are top three lightweights.

Clay Guida vs. Dennis Bermudez
Nickname:                                The Carpenter    |       The Menace
Height:                                                 5'7          |             5'6
Age:                                                      32           |             27
MMA Record (UFC):                  31-14 (11-8)  |       13-3 (6-1)
Arm Length:                                       69 in.        |            66 in.
Team:                       Jackson-Winklejohn MMA |    Long Island MMA
Weight Class:                                   Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Guida is coming off a win over Tatsuya Kawajiri by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs. Nelson (April 11, 2014). Bermudez is riding a six fight win streak. His recent win was over Jimy Hettes by TKO at UFC 171 (March 15, 2014).

Predictions: Bermudez. Granted Bermudez hasn't faced the competition that Guida has but he's younger and healthier. Despite Guida winning his last fight, he should technically be 1-4 in his last five. Guida is coming off as a fighter who's starting to decline and his best days are behind him. Since his win over Anthony Pettis in 2011, he's looked awful. He got destroyed by Ben Henderson in a one-sided fight. He had that very bizarre performance against Gray Maynard who he lost to. He defeated Hatsu Hioki in a very close fight that some thought was a robbery and he got an undeserved decision win. Then he got annihilated and suffered his first knockout loss against Chad Mendes. The Mendes loss is alarming given Guida is known for his toughness. When you're known for having a great chin and then get knocked out, that's a very bad sign. In his recent fight, he defeated Tatsuya Kawajiri which is a good win but Kawajiri is another fighter who's best days might be behind him and has been suffering from repeated eye issues before and since. Bermudez could have the skills needed to win. He's shown in his last fight that he can knock his opponents out. He has great takedown defense which should allow him to block takedowns. If Bermudez can prevent the takedowns then he could be able to pick Guida apart standing up since Guida these days relies so much on his wrestling.

Anthony Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Nickname:                                Rumble            |               Mintouro
Height:                                         6'2                |                   6'2
Age:                                              30                 |                   38
MMA Record (UFC):            17-4 (8-4)         |               21-5 (4-2)
Arm Length:                                 78 in.           |                   75 in.
Team:                                      Blackzilians        |              Black House
Weight Class:                              Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Johnson is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Phil Davis by unanimous decision at UFC 172 (April 26, 2014). Nogueira is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Rashad Evans by unanimous decision at UFC 156 (February 2, 2013).

Predictions: Johnson. Unless Johnson drops the ball like his teammate Rashad Evans did, I can't see how Nogueira can win. Johnson is a big, strong, athletic Light Heavyweight who is younger and far healthier than Nogeuira. He's got a three inch reach advantage. He hits very hard and is a good striker with good punches and kicks. He's also a very good wrestler and can hold his own on the ground. Nogueira is also a wreck at this point who is not only past his prime but miles away from it. Nowadays, he's extremely injury prone, he's beat up, and he's is very slow. Like his brother, he comes off as a guy who is held up with scotch tape and chewing gum. Nogueira has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a very decorated boxer but he's so worn down that he may not be able to use these skills like he used to. You also look at the fights he's won in the UFC, none are impressive. He looked great against Luiz Cane and Tito Ortiz but Cane is a middle of the pack kind of fighter while Ortiz is one of the rare cases of being more battered than Nogueira. His win over Jason Brilz was a win most thought (myself included) that he shouldn't have gotten in the first place and Brilz took the fight on two weeks notice. He beat Rashad Evans but that had more to do with what Rashad didn't do instead of what Nogueira did. In fact, some would say that was the worst performance in Evans' career. Nogueira is also coming off a seventeen month layoff which is not good especially when you're as old as Nogueira and facing someone like Rumble.

Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown
Nickname:                                            Ruthless        |    The Immortal
Height:                                                     5'11           |          6'0
Age:                                                           32            |           33
MMA Record (UFC):                 23-10, 1NC (8-4) |     19-11 (12-5)
Arm Length:                                             74 in.        |         75 in.
Team:                                        American Top Team |  AMC Pankration
Weight Class:                                       Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Lawler is coming off a win over Jake Ellenberger by TKO at UFC 173 (May 24, 2014). Brown is riding a seven fight win streak. His recent win was over Erick Silva by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014).


Predictions: Lawler. This fight is going to the welterweight equivalent of Junior Dos Santos/Mark Hunt. Brown is somewhat like Hunt where he was considered washed up and going nowhere when all of a sudden he put together a big win streak and won the hearts of fans everywhere. Unfortunately, I say he's somewhat like Hunt but he's not quite there because not one of Brown's win are against top ten competition. While racking up seven wins is impressive, Brown has beat unranked fighters and guys in the low top fifteen. I know MMA math doesn't always work but look at the guys Brown has faced. Chris Cope and Luis Ramos mean nothing. Jordan Mein and Stephen Thompson are good up and comers but neither are ranked and weren't at the time Brown beat them. Meanwhile, Mein took the fight on short notice. Mike Swick is not an elite fighter and was coming off his first fight in two years. Mike Pyle is an aging grappler. Erick Silva has been a yo-yo over the years and may never get better. Meanwhile, Lawler put on clinics against Josh Koscheck and Jake Ellenberger. He pulled off a big upset over prospect Rory MacDonald. He also came very close to beating Johny Hendricks. Brown is taking a gigantic step up in competition as he's going from low top fifteen to facing a top three fighter. Brown has been showing improvement but so has Lawler. Lawler has been a monster since returning to the UFC. He's training at American Top Team which has been paying off. His striking is better and his ground game is better. He's been impressive against better opposition than Brown. Brown has never been knocked out before but that shouldn't stop Lawler as he has the power to severely hurt Brown. In fact, Brown was in trouble in his last fight when he got dropped by Erick Silva. Brown likely won't be able to do anything on the ground since Josh Koscheck and Jake Ellenberger couldn't control Lawler and they're better wrestlers. 

No comments:

Post a Comment