UFC 171 Predictions

                                            

UFC 171 Predictions

March 12, 2014

By Ryan Porzl

Daniel Pineda vs. Robert Whiteford

Nickname:                                       The Pit          |          None

Height:                                                5'7             |           5'9

Age:                                                     28             |            30

MMA Record (UFC):                 18-10 (3-3)      |       10-2 (0-1)

Arm Length:                                    70 in.            |        Unknown

Team:                                          4oz Fight Club   |  American Top Team

Weight Class:                                  Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Pineda is coming off a loss to Diego Brandao by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013). Whiteford is coming off a loss to Jim Hettes by technical submission at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Munoz (October 26, 2013).

Predictions: Pineda. Pineda is the more well-rounded with his share of knockout wins and a lot of submission wins while Whiteford is more of a striker who's won the most of his fights by knockout. Pineda has lost most of his fights by submission but Whiteford is not much of a grappler and his only submission win was due to punches instead of a submission hold. Pineda also has decent striking and striking defense so he's not a sitting duck on the feet. At the same time, Whiteford's takedown defense isn't good so the worse case scenario could see Pineda possibly take the fight to the ground if he needs to.

Robert McDaniel vs. Sean Strickland

Nickname:                                       Bubba                |       Tarzan

Height:                                               6'3                   |         6'1

Age:                                                    30                   |          23

MMA Record (UFC):                    21-7 (1-1)          |     13-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                      75 in.                |     Unknown

Team:                                            Jackson's MMA   |   Cquence Jiu-Jitsu

Weight Class:                                   Middleweight (185 pounds)

Notes: Strickland's UFC debut. Strickland is replacing Tor Troeng.

Preview: McDaniel is coming off a loss over Brad Tavares by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013). Strickland is undefeated with thirteen wins. His recent win was over Matt Lagler by TKO at KOTC: Split Decision (August 29, 2013).

Predictions: McDaniel. Strickland is probably in over his head. He's making his UFC debut which can psyche fighters out and he's taking this fight on short notice. Strickland's record may be 13-0 but you always got to question the caliber of fighters competing in minor league promotions like KOTC. McDaniel is very good defensively with both striking defense and takedown defense. He also has decent striking so he can hold his own standing. It also doesn't hurt that McDaniel is training at Jackson's MMA where he has a great head coach in Greg Jackson and a great striking coach in Mike Winkeljohn.

Will Campuzano vs. Justin Scoggins

Nickname:                                         None              |         Tank

Height:                                                 5'9               |           5'5

Age:                                                      27                |            21

MMA Record (UFC):                    13-5 (0-3)         |       8-0 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                       70 in.             |       Unknown

Team:                                           Team Alpha Male | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                        Flyweight (125 pounds)

Notes: Scoggins is replacing Darrell Montague.

Preview: Campuzano is coming off a loss to Sergio Pettis by unanimous decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013). Scoggins is undefeated at eight wins. His recent win was over Richie Vaculik by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013).

Predictions: Scoggins. Scoggins is a replacement but he has been given around six weeks to prepare which should be enough. Also Campuzano hasn't been very impressive in the UFC. Scoggins also seems like a fighter with good potential as he's shown very good striking accuracy and defense as well as good takedown accuracy. Scoggins also benefits from training at American Top Team which is one of the top gyms (as is Team Alpha Male). Campuzano isn't a bad fighter but he has yet to put it together in the UFC and it's hard to go with him when he has yet to acquire that elusive win. Both fighter prefer to go for the knockout but Scoggins will have the better chance as he's never been knocked out and seems like a better striker.

Renee Forte vs. Francisco Trevino

Nickname:                                           None       |           Frank

Height:                                                   5'7         |           5'10

Age:                                                        26         |             32

MMA Record (UFC):                      8-3 (1-2)    |        11-0 (0-0)

Arm Length:                                         71 in.      |         Unknown

Team:                                          Team Nogueira |   Macaco Gold Team

Weight Class:                                    Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes: Trevino's UFC debut.

Preview: Forte is coming off a loss to John Makdessi by KO at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013). Trevino is undefeated with eleven wins. His recent win was over Lester Batres by unanimous decision at LFC 26 (November 15, 2013).

Predictions: Forte. Forte has a lot going for him as he has very good takedowns as well as good defense in both striking and takedowns. Trevino is making his UFC debut and it's usually stressful for fighters debuting in major organizations. Forte is also training out of Team Nogueira which gives him great sparring partners and coaches to prepare. Forte is probably the toughest opponent Trevino has faced to date as most fighters Trevino has fought are tomato cans with some of them having negative records while others are batting .500.

Sean Spencer vs. Alex Garcia

Nickname:                                         Black Magic    |   The Dominican Nightmare

Height:                                                   5'9              |        5'9

Age:                                                        26               |        26

MMA Record (UFC):                       11-2 (2-1)       |    11-1 (1-0)

Arm Length:                                         76 in.            |     Unknown

Team:                                               Octagon MMA |     Tristar Gym

Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Spencer is riding a two fight win streak. His recent win was over Drew Dober by unanimous decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 18 (November 30, 2013). Garcia is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Ben Wall by KO at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Bigfoot (December 7, 2013).

Predictions: Garcia. Garcia has a lot going for him. He's riding a lot of momentum and had a very good debut performance. At the same time, Garcia seems to have a lot of potential and skill. His striking accuracy is very good, his striking defense is very good, and he has excellent takedown defense. Garcia also has an equal amount of knockout and submission wins (five each) and he doesn't have to worry too much about getting knocked out or submitted since Spencer is not a finisher as most of his fights go the distance. Another plus for Garcia is he's training at Tristar Gym which is one of the best gyms in mixed martial arts today. Perhaps another thing to mention is Garcia is one of those fighters who will go for body shots which helped him win his UFC debut. Mixing up strikes and going to the body is a very underrated tactic in MMA.

Dennis Bermudez vs. Jimy Hettes

Nickname:                                        The Menace         |      The Kid

Height:                                                   5'6                  |          5'9

Age:                                                        27                  |          26

MMA Record (UFC):                       12-3 (5-1)           |     11-1 (3-1)

Arm Length:                                         66 in.                |        71 in.

Team:                                             Long Island MMA   |  Northeast Jiu-Jitsu

Weight Class:                                     Featherweight (145 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Bermudez is riding a five fight win streak. His recent win was over Steven Siler by unanimous decision at UFC Fight for the Troops 3 (November 6, 2013). Hettes is coming off a win over Rob Whitefield by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Munoz (October 26, 2013).

Predictions: Bermudez. Hettes comes off as not only one-dimensional but predictable. He's won the majority of his fights by submission and never won a fight by knockout. Along with his submission wins, Hettes also goes for the same submissions as he's won most of his fights by either rear-naked choke or triangle choke. In fact, seven out of eleven of his wins have been by one of those two moves. Bermudez has been submitted in all three of his losses but those losses were years ago with last being two years ago. If he does his homework, Bermudez should know not only where Hettes will prefer to fight but what moves he'll look to finish with. He's also shown to have excellent takedown defense and if Hettes can't get this fight to the ground then he'll probably have a hard time winning.

Raquel Pennington vs. Jessica Andrade

Nickname:                                       Rocky                |       Bate Estaca

Height:                                              5'7                    |            5'2

Age:                                                   25                    |             22

MMA Record (UFC):                 4-3 (1-0)               |        10-3 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                Unknown               |           62 in.

Team:                                        Attitude MMA          |   Parana Vale Tudo

Weight Class:                              Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Notes: Pennington is replacing Julianna Pena

Preview: Pennington is coming off a win over Roxanne Modafferi by unanimous decision at UFC The Ultimate Fighter 18 (November 30, 2013). Andrade is coming off a win over Rosi Sexton by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Munoz (October 26, 2013).

Predictions: Andrade. It's impossible to go for Pennington. Her record's not good as she hasn't beat any elite fighters or lost to any other than losing to Cat Zingano. She's very inexperienced with less than ten fights and two years in the business. Her recent fight with Roxanne Modafferi wasn't impressive as she failed to look good against an one-dimensional grappler with no power, limited striking & limited wrestling. Andrade has skills. She has her share of knockouts and submission victories thus proving she's capable of finishing fights, has power, and submissions. Andrade has what Modafferi didn't have. She's more of a MMA fighter instead of a grappler, she has power, she can deliver damage, and she should have the wrestling needed to get the fight to the ground.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Rick Story

Nickname:                                             None              |    The Horror

Height:                                                    5'9                 |        5'9

Age:                                                         22                 |         29

MMA Record (UFC):                         7-0 (2-0)          |     16-7 (9-5)

Arm Length:                                          71 in.              |       71 in.

Team:                                            Yuma United MMA | Brave Legion

Weight Class:                                     Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Gastelum is undefeated with seven wins. His recent win was over Brian Melancon by submission at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann 2 (August 28, 2013). Story is coming off a win over Brian Ebersole by unanimous decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Gastelum. Gastelum has shown that he is a promising up and coming prospect since arriving in the UFC. He's shown to be well-rounded with an even amount of knockout and submission wins. Story looked good in his last fight against Brian Ebersole but Gastelum will be a much bigger challenge. He's younger, healthier, and more determined than Ebersole. Unlike Ebersole, Gastelum is in his prime and isn't coming off an eighteen month absence. Story also credited training with Georges St. Pierre at Tristar in his last fight but GSP is now on a leave of absence and is likely not training with Story for this fight.

Ovince St. Preux vs. Nikita Krylov

Nickname:                                              OSP            |     Al Capone

Height:                                                     6'3              |         6'3

Age:                                                          30              |          22

MMA Record (UFC):                        14-5 (2-0)       |     16-3 (1-1)

Arm Length:                                           82 in.           |       77.5 in.

Team:                                               Knoxville MMA |  YK Promotions

Weight Class:                                    Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Notes: Krylov is replacing Thiago Silva.

Preview: St. Preux is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Cody Donovan by KO at UFC Fight Night: Sonnen vs. Shogun (August 17, 2013). Krylov is coming off a win over Walt Harris by TKO at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Thomson (January 25, 2014).

Predictions: St. Preux. Krylov redeemed himself somewhat with his quick win over Harris but he may have bitten off more than he can chew. Krylov is dropping down to Light Heavyweight for the first time. Usually dropping down in weight takes some getting used to especially a heavyweight dropping down to light heavyweight. The fighters are faster, have better cardio, and are more athletic. OSP is as tall and has a longer reach which could be an important factor. He's also never been submitted and hasn't been knocked out in over four years. OSP never being submitted may also be important since Krylov has won most of his fights by submission (though he hasn't won a fight by sub in a long time). OSP is also a southpaw which could potentially throw Krylov off. Finally, Krylov is also taking this fight on a months notice which isn't a lot of time to not only train for a fight but also to properly cut weight.

Jake Shields vs. Hector Lombard

Nickname:                                          None         |         Lightning

Height:                                                 6'0            |            5'9

Age:                                                      35            |             36

MMA Record (UFC):    29-6-1, 1NC (4-2,1NC) |  33-4-1, 1NC (2-2)

Arm Length:                                       72 in.         |           71 in.

Team:                                  Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu |   American Top Team

Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Shields is unbeaten in four fights (3 wins, 1 no contest). His recent fight was a win over Demian Maia by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields (October 9, 2013). Lombard is coming off a win over Nate Marquardt by KO at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013).

Predictions: Shields. Shields is one-dimensional but what he does, he's extremely good at. Shields is an excellent ground fighter who's capable of taking fighters down and grinding out decisions. Good example of his skills is his recent win with Demian Maia as defeated and gave one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in MMA a lot of trouble. Lombard has the tools to be successful in the UFC but he hasn't put it together yet. He also can fail to follow a gameplan and will probably emotionally give up if Shields can continually take him down at will and keep him down. Shields has also seemed to get things back on track as he scored good wins over Tyron Woodley & Demian Maia when they were coming off big wins and great performances. He also seems to have been able to properly cut weight since returning to welterweight and doesn't look drained.

Diego Sanchez vs. Myles Jury

Nickname:                                         The Dream       |      The Fury

Height:                                                  5'10              |         5'11

Age:                                                       32                |          25

MMA Record (UFC):                      24-6 (13-6)      |     13-0 (4-0)

Arm Length:                                        72 in.             |         73 in.

Team:                                              Jackson's MMA |   Alliance MMA

Weight Class:                                    Lightweight (155 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Sanchez is coming off a loss to Gilbert Melendez by unanimous decision at UFC 166 (October 19, 2013). Jury is undefeated with thirteen wins. His recent win was over Mike Ricci by split decision at UFC 165 (September 21, 2013).

Predictions: Sanchez. Jury is a good prospect but Sanchez has proven he still has some gas left in his tank. Sanchez has shown in his fight with Gilbert Melendez that he's still very difficult to put away and can take shots as good as anyone. He's still very dangerous if he can get his opponent to engage in a firefight and he's got power and submission skills. He can put on a tough pace and just keeps coming as he can survive some tough shots and never get tired or fatigued. Jury has won most of his fights by submission but Sanchez has never been submitted in his career. He has won his share of fights by knockout but the only time Sanchez has been TKOed was after taking a 4½ round beatdown at the hands of BJ Penn.

Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley

Nickname:                         The Natural Born Killer |       T-Wood

Height:                                                   6'2            |           5'9

Age:                                                        29            |            31

MMA Record (UFC):                     29-7 (6-3)      |      12-2 (2-1)

Arm Length:                                        76 in.           |         73 in.

Team:                                           Jackson's MMA | American Top Team

Weight Class:                                   Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes:

Preview: Condit is coming off a win over Martin Kampmann by TKO at UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann 2 (August 28, 2013). Woodley is coming off a win over Josh Koscheck by KO at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Condit. Condit is one of the best welterweights in the world and has the whole package as he has a great chin, submission skills, and a lot of knockout power. He has yet to be knocked out and has a near even amount of knockout and submission wins. Perhaps the most important thing is Condit is a fighter who can keep his eyes on the prize and stick to game plans. The same can't be said for Woodley who is a great athlete with a ton of potential but he sometimes doesn't put it together. There's times when he looks like a beast and shines like the Jay Hieron and Josh Koscheck fights. Then there's fights where he's off his game like the Jake Shields fight. Woodley is also taking a huge step up in competition. Fighting an aging Josh Koscheck is nowhere near the same difficulty as fighting a prime and dangerous Carlos Condit.

Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler

Nickname:                                        Bigg Rigg          |        Ruthless

Height:                                                  5'9                |          5'11

Age:                                                       30                |            31

MMA Record (UFC):                   15-2 (10-2)         |    22-9, 1NC (7-3)

Arm Length:                                        71 in.             |           74 in.

Team:                                            Team Takedown  |  American Top Team

Weight Class:                                       Welterweight (170 pounds)

Notes: For the UFC Welterweight Championship

Preview: Hendricks is coming off a loss to Georges St. Pierre by split decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013). Lawler is riding a three fight win streak. His recent win was over Rory McDonald by split decision at UFC 167 (November 16, 2013).

Predictions: Hendricks. Lawler has been impressive since his return but he may not have what's needed to beat Hendricks. Hendricks should be the most motivated he's ever been in his career since he's coming off a fight most thought he should've won and thus should be the champion right now. Both are heavy hitters but Hendricks has never been finished in his career which could be an important factor. He also has a great chin and great wrestling skills. Lawler doesn't have the best wrestling and Hendricks could be able to use his wrestling to control the fight. Hendricks is also coming off facing a murderer's row including top three welterweight Jon Fitch, top 10 fighters Josh Koscheck & Martin Kampmann, former Interim Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit, and gave Georges St. Pierre the toughest fight he's had in years. Lawler's fought good fighters but they each had a weakness to exploit that Hendricks doesn't have. Hendricks is not past his prime like Josh Koscheck, he's not a last minute replacement like Bobby Voelker, and he's not an up and comer who has stuff to learn like Rory McDonald.