A Look at the 2022 All Japan Champion Carnival and the Participants
April 7, 2022
By Ryan Porzl
April 7, 2022
By Ryan Porzl
April 2022 is fast approaching which means the return of All Japan's top tournament which is the Champion Carnival. This year, twelve wrestlers in two blocks will battle it out to become this year's Champion Carnival winner and etch their name in history while possibly being the next in line for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship. We'll take a look at the participants and their chances of winning.
Note: I don't own the pictures. I got them off google.
Block A
Shigehiro Irie
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh opponent, current GAORA TV Champion
Minuses: Never participated in a CC before and isn't big enough to win in his first try, never challenged for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship
Thoughts: Irie is a talented journeyman who has been almost everywhere in Japan and even popped up in America during his career. He does have some positives as he is All Japan's current GAORA TV Champion and he would make a fresh opponent for Miyahara all the while, it would be a very good match. That being said, Irie has never participated in a Carnival before and he's not a big enough name like Giant Baba, Vader, and Great Muta to win it in his first try. Granted, there have been exceptions like Shuji Ishikawa but that feels like a rarity. He's also never challenged for the Triple Crown and I don't think this is the time for him to get his first shot. I also think, as we'll see later in the article, All Japan has bigger plans and Irie doesn't fit into those plans. Because Irie is a very successful wrestler and a current champion, he should do good but I don't think he places very high, probably not higher than third. I'm sure he'll get a good win or two, especially if he places low to accommodate.
Chances of Winning: Not good
Ryuki Honda
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: None
Minuses: Not a fresh opponent, just graduated from rookie status
Thoughts: One of, if not, the wrestler with the least chance of winning. Honda has potential and there's nothing against him personally but he's got nothing positive going into this tournament. On top of that, he's 22 years old and while he's been getting a small push this year, he's still just graduated for rookie status so he's long ways away from winning a Carnival and he especially is nowhere near a big enough name to win it on his first try. Meanwhile, Honda just got a title shot when he entered a four man tournament for the vacant Triple Crown in January and made it to the finals before losing to Miyahara so a Honda/Miyahara match wouldn't even be fresh. Even with some of his recent development like making it to the finals of the tournament and feuding with Ashino, I feel Honda will do very poorly and will likely place last. He may get a good win but he's currently at that point in his career where just being in the Carnival is big enough for him right now.
Chances of Winning: No Chance
Shuji Ishikawa
Number of Champion Carnivals: 5 (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021)
Pluses: Former Triple Crown Champion, former Champion Carnival winner
Minuses: Not a fresh challenger, just challenged for the Triple Crown Championship
Thoughts: Ishikawa is one of those cases where timing hurts him. On paper, he has a lot going for him as he's a former Triple Crown champion and a former Champion Carnival winner all the while being a decorated competitor having won almost every title and tournament a heavyweight can win in All Japan so you would think he'd be a favorite but no. The biggest negative is Ishikawa just challenged for the championship against Miyahara only weeks ago so it's extremely doubtful All Japan will go right back to that match. All Japan is also currently in a position where they're clearly trying to elevate younger talent like Jake Lee, Yuma Aoyagi, and Shotaro Ashino so they'll probably focus more on them then the aging Ishikawa. Ishikawa is also nearly 47 so I find it highly unlikely that he'll win another Carnival. How well Ishikawa will do, I'm not sure as he usually is booked to do great but he is getting older so I have to think sooner or later, All Japan will eventually book him to be less and less successful. At worst, I see him placing third or fourth barring a tie.
Chances of Winning: No chance
Jake Lee
Number of Champion Carnivals: 4 (2017, 2019, 2020, 2021)
Pluses: Former Triple Crown Champion, former Champion Carnival winner, had to vacate the Triple Crown a few months ago because of injury, and has unfinished business with Kento Miyahara
Minuses: Want to save his title shot for Nippon Budokan in September
Thoughts: It's deja vu all over again as Lee enters his second straight Champion Carnival and once again, looks to be one of the favorites to win. Lee is interesting as a few months ago, he was the triple crown champion and I figured he wouldn't have a chance but when he vacated the championship due to injury, that changed. Lee has everything going for him as he's a former champion, a former carnival winner, he never lost the Triple Crown in the ring but due to injury and his recent match with Miyahara ended in a draw. Not to mention, Lee, along with Yuma Aoyagi, have obviously been pet projects of All Japan this past year and I don't see All Japan stopping that this year. The only thing I see going against Lee is I could see them saving him for the Budokan 50th Anniversary show in September. Miyahara/Lee is probably the biggest match they got and they probably want to save it. I can easily see Aoyagi winning the Carnival, losing to Miyahara, Lee winning the Odo/Royal Road Tournament, and then he wins the championship at Budokan. Lee should definitely place high and I can see as a possibility of winning.
Chances of Winning: One of the top two to likely win
Shotaro Ashino
Number of Champion Carnivals: 2 (2020, 2021)
Pluses: Former Triple Crown Championship contender, former WRESTLE-1 Champion, current World Tag Team Champion
Minuses: Is busy as tag team champion and there's bigger names to choose
Thoughts: Ashino is one of All Japan's latest signings after working there as a freelancer for the last two years. With him signed, I can see All Japan going in on Ashino as he's not only a very good talent but young at 32. With All Japan having Miyahara as the triple crown champion while elevating Lee and Aoyagi, I can't see why they won't do the same with Ashino as he would be a young, fresh option for All Japan in the future, in fact, they already are pairing him with Suwama. Ashino has things going for him as he's one half of the current World Tag Team Champions and is a former WRESTLE-1 Champion while having challenged for the Triple Crown several times already. The only problem with Ashino is he's already a tag team champion and I feel All Japan feels that's fine for now. Again, I feel right now the tournament boils down to Lee or Aoyagi. Ashino should do good in this tournament and since he's another young guy they seem to be elevating, there is a chance he could win but it's decent at best. Worst case scenario, he'll get a big name win somewhere, maybe over Lee.
Chances of Winning: Decent chance
T-Hawk
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh challenger, former WRESTLE-1 Champion
Minuses: Not a big enough name to win it on his first try, most of his success has been in the tag team division
Thoughts: T-Hawk is another one with some positives but not enough to close the deal. Like some on this list, he would be a fresh challenger for Miyahara and he is a former top champion as he was a former WRESTLE-1 Champion but that's pretty much it. Again, like every other guy who's debuting in the Carnival, T-Hawk is not a huge enough name to win on his first try. He's also enjoyed most of his success as a tag team wrestler so I don't think he's what All Japan has in mind for the Champion Carnival. I don't think T-Hawk will do bad as All Japan will book him to do decent as a sign of good will to GLEAT or at least give him a strong win somewhere.
Chances of Winning: No Chance
Block B
Takuya Nomura
Number of Champion Carnivals: 0
Pluses: Fresh Challenger, former BJW Strong World Heavyweight Champion
Minuses: Not an All Japan regular, not big enough to win on his first try, hasn't competed in All Japan in a long time
Thoughts: Nomura is kind of in the same position that T-Hawk is in. He would be a fresh challenger and has credibility as he recently held the BJW Strong World Heavyweight Championship from Big Japan. I'm not into BJW but it sounds like Nomura is a rising star there so him and Miyahara could be a very good match. However, I don't see him winning for the same reasons as he hasn't appeared in a Carnival tournament and I figured they would want to give the tournament to one of their rising stars as opposed to someone who isn't under contract. On top of that, Nomura has only competed twice for All Japan since 2017 with his most recent match being fourteen months ago. I definitely can't see All Japan giving their top tournament to a guy who's only had two matches for them in five years. Nomura should do ok cause I'm sure All Japan want to keep Big Japan happy.
Chances of Winning: No chance
Yuma Aoyagi
Number of Champion Carnivals: 3 (2019, 2020, 2021)
Pluses: Rising up and comer, fresh challenger, is the current tag team partner of Kento Miyahara
Minuses: Little to none
Thoughts: Along with Lee, Aoyagi is easily one of the favorites to win and like Lee, has a lot going for him and pretty much nothing against him. As I pointed out, Aoyagi, along with Lee, have clearly been pet projects of All Japan over the past year as All Japan is clearly trying to get both to the next level. In the case of Aoyagi, he not only main evented their Ota Ward Gymnasium show last June for the vacant Triple Crown but he's clearly getting rub by teaming with the promotion's ace in Miyahara. He would also be a fresh challenger against Miyahara and a Carnival win would move Aoyagi up the ladder tremendously. The only thing I see going against Aoyagi is where All Japan plans to go. Again, I feel Miyahara will hold the Triple Crown till the 50th Anniversary show at the Nippon Budokan in September. The question is who will be the one to take the belt? I feel it will either be Lee or Aoyagi. I still feel one will win the Carnival, lose to Miyahara in May, the other will win the Odo/Royal Road Tournament in August, and they will defeat Miyahara in September. I think Carnival will either be Lee or Aoyagi but since I feel they may want to save Miyahara/Lee for Budokan, I feel Aoyagi might win the tournament and then lose to Miyahara in May for the championship but the Carnival win will still boost him.
Chances of Winning: One of the top two to win
Suwama
Number of Champion Carnivals: 16 (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021)
Pluses: Record setting seven time Triple Crown Champion, former Champion Carnival winner, former All Japan ace
Minuses: Him vs. Miyahara is very stale, not a fresh challenger
Thoughts: The former ace returns for his record setting seventeenth Champion Carnival but he hasn't won one in fourteen years. Suwama is another with a lot going for him as he is the former All Japan ace, he's a record setting seven time Triple Crown Champion, and a former Champion Carnival winner. He also has great chemistry with Miyahara so you're almost guaranteed a great match. Unfortunately, like his former partner Ishikawa, timing is against Suwama as he already just faced Miyahara during the four man tournament for the vacant Triple Crown Championship in January with Suwama losing. Even worse for Suwama, he and Miyahara is a very stale match that has been done so many times and All Japan doesn't need to run it back anytime soon especially since we're getting it again at the Carnival as they're in the same block. I also don't see Suwama regaining the Triple Crown anytime soon so it doesn't make sense for him to lose to Miyahara in January and then gets booked to lose again in May. That being said, you never know. Suwama is one of All Japan's top stars so you can't count him out and All Japan may also book him the tournament as a one last Carnival victory type thing but I doubt it. Suwama usually has been booked to do great in these Carnivals so I expect him in the top three of the block.
Chances of Winning: Little to no chance
Kento Miyahara
Number of Champion Carnivals: 8 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021)
Pluses: Current All Japan ace
Minuses: Current Triple Crown Champion, the tournament sets up his next challenger
Thoughts: Miyahara is in an interesting position as months ago, I would've considered him as the favorite when Jake Lee was the champion but that all changed when Lee got injured and Miyahara won the vacant Triple Crown. Now, I don't see Miyahara winning because I feel they'll want to set up his next challenger and Miyahara doesn't need the Carnival as he's already the top star in the promotion, a former Carnival winner, and in his fifth reign as Triple Crown champion. That being said, he is the ace of the promotion so you can't count him out as All Japan may still want to give him the Carnival and I do believe that was the original plan. Regardless of what happens, Miyahara will obviously do great cause All Japan won't have their top champion look poorly in their top tournament of the year.
Chances of Winning: Decent but not likely
Yoshitatsu
Number of Champion Carnivals: 3 (2018, 2019, 2020)
Pluses: Former Triple Crown Championship challenger, fresh challenger, current Six Man Tag Team Champion, and longest reigning GAORA TV Champion
Minuses: Largely a midcard wrestler right now and was not part of last year's Carnival
Thoughts: Yoshitatsu is one of those guys who seems to have a lot going for him but still has a lot of negatives and no chance whatsoever of winning. The plus side is Yoshitatsu is one-third of the current six man tag team champions and the longest reigning GAORA TV Champion in history. Meanwhile, he is a former Triple Crown Championship challenger and has history with Miyahara as they were former World Tag Team Champions. However, at best, Yoshitatsu was never a main eventer in his career and at best, was an upper midcarder but has dropped down the ladder a little in recent times. He also wasn't even used in last year's edition so I fail to see him getting bumped from last years only to win this year. In some cases, he looks like he's in this to serve as someone for the upper guys to possibly get a win over. I see Yoshitatsu in a race to the bottom with Kuma Arashi. He should place second to last but could go last, we'll see. However, I do see Yoshitatsu getting a good win to balance things out, possibly against Suwama since he always usually upsets Suwama whenever they've been in the same block in past Champion Carnival matches.
Chances of Winning: No chance
Kuma Arashi
Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2020)
Pluses: Fresh challenger, tag team championship challenger, and World's Strongest Tag Determination League runner up
Minuses: Mostly a tag team wrestler
Thoughts: Arashi is a cool talent but like fellow Total Eclipse member Ryuki Honda, he has the least chance of winning the tournament. Arashi would be a fresh challenger but so would others who are arguably higher on the food chain like Irie. He is a tag team championship challenger and was a runner up at last year's world's strongest tag league but those are tag teams while this is a singles tournament. Honestly, Arashi's job in this tournament is to, well, do the job as he'll likely place in the bottom eating pins from everyone else. I think All Japan's mind set is that not only is Arashi not under contract with them but he's mostly a tag team wrestler so it doesn't hurt them or him to lose in singles tournaments. Arashi, along with his partner Koji Doi, have played this role in recent Carnivals and I don't see this year being different. Like some who will likely be in the bottom, they may give Arashi one strong win or at least a decent win somewhere.
Chances of Winning: No chance
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