A Look at the 2021 All Japan Champion Carnival and the Participants

A Look at the 2021 All Japan Champion Carnival and the Participants

April 7, 2021 

By Ryan Porzl

After 2020 Champion Carnival was moved to the fall for the first time due to the pandemic, the 2021 Carnival returns to it's usual position in the spring. This year, All Japan decided to run a smaller Carnival as this will be the first since 2001 to be a single block consisting of ten wrestlers mostly from All Japan with others either being freelance or coming from other organizations. Here, we'll take a look at the participants and their chances of winning.

Note: Bold year indicates the year that wrestler won the Carnival.

Suwama

Number of Champion Carnivals: 14 (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019)

Pluses: Current Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion, Former Champion Carnival winner, top star

Minuses: Has been Triple Crown Champion for a year, doesn't have many fresh challengers left

Thoughts: The current record setting seven time Triple Crown Champion Suwama returns for his 15th Champion Carnival, which is likely a record in it's own right. In many ways, you would think Suwama is one of the favorites as he's the current champion, he won the tournament in 2008, and is a top star for All Japan but not quite. As much things as he has going for him, Suwama has plenty going against him. Unless, this is part of his "last run" and the fact he hasn't won a Carnival in 13 years, I can't see Suwama winning. The big problem is Suwama has been Triple Crown Champion for a year which means he defended the title against just about everyone and things are getting stale. If Suwama was a new champion with plenty of fresh challengers on the horizon, I could probably see him win but he's made seven title defenses and the Carnival could be used to either reestablish someone back to the main event or build a fresh contender. Also, All Japan is planning a big show on May 16th which would be perfect for the Carnival winner to challenge Suwama. In the end, Suwama should obviously do very well giving his status but the chances of him winning are slim. He should still place high, maybe either just missing the finals and placing 3rd or placing 4th. He did place low last year but I don't know if he'll place low a second year in a row as champion.

Chances of Winning: Not that good

Zeus

Number of Champion Carnivals: 7 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion, former Champion Carnival winner, top star 

Minuses: Not a fresh challenger, just won last year's around six months ago

Thoughts: Zeus continues a trend we'll see with the next few participants. Like Suwama, Miyahara, and Ishikawa, Zeus is a top star, he's a former Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion, and a former Champion Carnival winner. Perhaps another advantage is the fact that Zeus is part of the Purple Haze stable and while he and Izanagi have the All Asia Tag Team Championships, the stable has had some tough losses lately with Zeus failing to win the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship in October, then he and Shigehiro Irie failed to win the World Tag Team Championship in March, and Izanagi failed to win the World Junior Heavyweight Championship so there is a possibility where All Japan feels Purple Haze needs another boost. Zeus has a lot going for him. That being said, Zeus also has plenty of negatives. For one, he's not a fresh challenger as he already faced Suwama back in October and I'm not sure if All Japan wants to go back to that match right now. While Zeus is also a former Carnival winner, his Carnival win came in September instead of the usual April due to the pandemic so his Carnival win was around six months ago and while All Japan has booked winners going back to back, I don't know if they want someone to win two Carnivals in six months. It feels too soon. Perhaps another negative could be that Zeus is already one half of the All Asia Tag Team Champions with Izanagi so it's possible All Japan feels he has enough for now. Still, Zeus is a main event talent so while I don't see him winning, you can't count him out so there is a chance. Given he won last year, I can see Zeus doing well, maybe making it to the finals.

Chances of Winning: Possible but not likely

Kento Miyahara

Number of Champion Carnivals: 7 (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)

Pluses: Current All Japan ace, former Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion, former Champion Carnival winner

Minuses: Him vs. Suwama is a stale match, he's kind of stale in the main event, and is already one half of the World Tag Team Champions

Thoughts: Again, Miyahara carries the same positives in being a former Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion and Champion Carnival winner. He's not only a top star for All Japan but he's their ace and face of the company. Plus, he and Suwama have excellent chemistry so you know if he wins, we'll be in line for a classic. However, Miyahara vs. Suwama is a pretty stale match and I don't know if All Japan wants to go back to it especially since they're going to wrestle each other again in the Carnival. Miyahara can also be considered stale in the main event for the time being as he's 32 but already has had four runs as Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion with two of those reigns going over a year. While Miyahara hasn't been champ for over a year, Suwama did take the title from him so I don't know if All Japan wants to go back to Miyahara right now. Finally, Miyahara is already busy in the tag team ranks as he won the 2020 World's Strongest Tag League in December and is currently one half of the World Tag Team Champions. Because he is the ace, you can't count him out and he should have a decent chance but no more. Nevertheless, he should still place very high but I'm not sure if he'll go to the finals as he's been in the finals the last three years in a row.

Chances of Winning: Decent possibility

Shuji Ishikawa

Number of Champion Carnivals: 4 (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion, former Champion Carnival winner, and has history with Suwama as a former tag team partner

Minuses: Not a fresh challenger and just won the GAORA TV Championship

Thoughts: Ishikawa is the last on this list that has the advantages of being a former Triple Crown Champion and a Champion Carnival winner. He also has history with Suwama as the two were a former tag team who were world tag team champions. On top of that, while they have competed against each other before, it was when they were still a team. If Ishikawa were to win the Carnival, he would face Suwama no longer being his partner which could add something. However, an issue with Ishikawa is he isn't a fresh challenger as he already faced Suwama during Suwama's current reign as champion and even though that was in the summer, it's still not a fresh match. Another negative is he just won the GAORA TV Championship so All Japan can look at it as he's won enough for now. Again, there's a possibility Ishikawa wins but I don't think it's likely. Ishikawa has usually placed high in Carnivals so it'll probably remain that way. Maybe 4th or 5th.

Chances of Winning: Possible but not likely

Jake Lee

Number of Champion Carnivals: 4 (2016, 2017, 2019, 2020)

Pluses: Fresh challenger, leader of the new stable Total Eclipse, former Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship challenger, in his prime 

Minuses: None

Thoughts: Sometimes these tournaments have at least one participant who has everything going for them while having little to no negatives. In this year's Champion's Carnival, that man is Jake Lee. Simply put, Lee has everything going for him. He's a fresh challenger as he's not only not challenged for the Triple Crown in nearly a year and a half but he hasn't challenged during Suwama's reign and those two haven't done many, if any, big one-on-one matches so that could be great. Lee is also the leader of the new stable Total Eclipse and a win would give the stable a huge boost. Lee is also a former Triple Crown Championship contender so it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see him challenge. Lee is also in the prime of his career, he's young, and has plenty of experience. He's ready to take that next step. Perhaps another big advantage is that the winner (so long as it's not Suwama) will challenge for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship at a big show on May 16th and that would be a great way to elevate him if they want it. Lee has everything going for him and not much, if anything, going against him. I see him going all the way.

Chances of Winning: The favorite

Yuma Aoyagi

Number of Champion Carnivals: 2 (2019, 2020)

Pluses: Former Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship challenger, coming into his own

Minuses: Not quite in his prime yet, not a fresh challenger, and currently busy as one half of the World Tag Team Champions

Thoughts: Like Jake Lee, Aoyagi is one of All Japan's up and comers who has potential to be a future Triple Crown Heavyweight Champion. Aoyagi has made strides over the past year as he's beginning to come into his own, he is a former Triple Crown challenger, and one half of the current World Tag Team Champions. Plus, teaming with All Japan's ace doesn't hurt. However, the problem is that Aoyagi is not a fresh challenger as he just challenged in January and unless All Japan plans to give him the championship in May, which I doubt, I can't see him getting another shot and coming up short this soon. Aoyagi is also coming into his own but he's not in his prime quite yet. I feel like he's getting there but not there just yet. Finally, like some on the participants, Aoyagi is a current champion so it's possible All Japan feels he has had enough for now. I definitely see Aoyagi as a future Carnival winner, maybe even in a year or two but for now, no. That being said, Aoyagi's position could be anyway as he's young enough to place low and be rebuilt but he is a champion and a future star so I could see him doing well. Should place in the middle but I wouldn't be surprised if All Japan got ballsy and placed him in the finals.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Shotaro Ashino

Number of Champion Carnivals: 1 (2020)

Pluses: Former Wrestle-1 Champion, former Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship challenger

Minuses: Not a fresh challenger

Thoughts: Ashino is in an interesting position lately having been kicked out of his stable Enfant Terribles which eventually became Total Eclipse leaving him almost a man without a country. Ashino has some positives going for him as he's a former two time Wrestle-1 Champion so he's been a top star elsewhere and is a former two time Triple Crown challenger so he's main evented in All Japan. That being said, Wrestle-1 wasn't a big promotion so while being a top guy there holds weight, it doesn't hold too much weight. Also, he's no where near a fresh challenger as he's already challenged Suwama twice during Suwama's year long reign as champion and I can't see them doing another title match so soon especially since the recent title match was in January. Ashino should place in the middle or possibly in the bottom half but if the latter happens, expect him to get a big win to balance things out.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Koji Doi

Number of Champion Carnivals: 0

Pluses: Fresh challenger

Minuses: Never been in a Champion Carnival, never challenged for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship, not a main eventer

Thoughts: I like Koji Doi but if there's one person who has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning this Carnival, it's Doi. Doi is a talented young up and comer with potential but other than being a fresh challenger, he's got nothing. Not to mention, there's guys like Jake Lee and Shinjiro Otani who are bigger stars that are also fresh challengers. Meanwhile, he's got nothing. He's never been in a Champion Carnival and he's no where near a big name like a Giant Baba, Keiji "The Great Muta" Mutoh, and Vader to win it on his first try. He's also never challenged for the Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship and I doubt he's getting his first shot by winning this. He's also not a main eventer either in All Japan or in prior promotions like Wrestle-1 as he's mostly been a tag wrestler. Like Aoyagi, there's a chance that maybe one day Doi could win it with time but not in 2021. I wouldn't be surprised if Doi placed last though he'll probably get a decent win to balance it out.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Kohei Sato

Number of Champion Carnivals: 0

Pluses: Former top star in Pro Wrestling ZERO1, former ZERO1 World Heavyweight Champion, former Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship challenger

Minuses: Not a fresh challenger, never competed in a Champion Carnival

Thoughts: Sato is the first of the last two participants who is mostly known for their time in ZERO1. For most of his career, until last year, Sato has been a staple for the Pro Wrestling ZERO1 promotion and had been one of their top stars until his departure. This can be seen as a plus as Sato isn't some prelim wrestler. Sato is also a former Triple Crown Heavyweight Championship challenger so he's no slouch. That being said, ZERO1 is a nice company but it's not one of Japan's biggest promotion so with that and the fact he's never competed in a Carnival before, it's not like Sato is a huge star to justify being given the Carnival in his first try. Sato is also not a fresh challenger as he just faced Suwama back in February for the championship so I doubt All Japan wants to go back to that match in May. Sato could place low given he's already challenged for the title, he's not an All Japan regular, and near 44 years old.

Chances of Winning: No chance

Shinjiro Otani

Number of Champion Carnivals: 0

Pluses: A top star in Pro Wrestling ZERO1, former ZERO1 World Heavyweight Champion, fresh challenger

Minuses: Past his prime, never competed in a Champion Carnival

Thoughts: Like Sato, Otani is also known for his time in ZERO1 over the last twenty years and his 90s run in New Japan. Like Sato, Otani has been a top star for them and a former World Heavyweight Champion but unlike Sato, Otani is a fresh challenger so those are pluses. Also, Otani is no stranger to the Triple Crown as he took part in a tournament for the vacant championship in 2003 and made it to the finals before losing to Toshiaki Kawada. That being said, Otani also has things going against him. Like some of the last names on this list, Otani has never competed in a Champion Carnival and he's not a huge star that would win it in his first try. Another issue is he's clearly past his prime and while he can still put on solid matches, Otani best days are behind him as he's pushing 50 which makes him the oldest participant in this Carnival. Otani also has little history with All Japan as most of the matches he took part in were from 2002-2003 while his last match to date was 2011. I seriously doubt All Japan is going to give the Carnival to a guy who hasn't wrestled a match for them in ten years. The ship has long sailed regarding Otani winning a Carnival. I can't see Otani placing high. Maybe 7th or 8th place as a decent show of goodwill as All Japan doesn't want to bury a ZERO1 guy but given his age and his lack of participating for All Japan, I can't see him going far. Again, maybe he'll get a good win somewhere.

Chances of Winning: No chance